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Politics: Widely divergent poll numbers and a potential hidden vote complicate the picture as some surveys show Xóchitl rebounding
MEXICO · Report · 20 Feb 2024

Since September, when the de facto presidential campaigns of Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez began, many of the country’s polling firms have showed the Morena nominee way out front. The Oraculus website’s average reading of major polls has detected virtually no movement in the voting intenti...

Fast track administration
ECUADOR · Report · 20 Feb 2024

President Noboa has sent four emergency bills to congress since November, when he took office. The first one, containing a mild tax reform that according to the government might help raise $700 million this year, was approved by the Assembly with few changes. The second, aimed at improving the si...

The official PRM party sweeps the municipal elections
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 Feb 2024

The big winner of the municipal elections, held on February 18, 2024, was the official party. The PRM won 121 of the 158 mayoralties, equivalent to 76.6% and 40 more mayoralties than those won in the last 2020 elections. The parties that made up the opposition alliance Rescate RD obtained 23 mayo...

The temporary truce and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Feb 2024

Throughout the week, the Government and Congress should negotiate on payroll tax relief, Perse (a program for the events sector), and Budget cuts. Conversations continue around the Ministry of Labor's ordinance on work on Sundays and holidays. Senator Flávio Dino resigns to take a seat on the STF...

Government leaders will meet to discuss the payroll tax exemption, party leaders will meet to discuss the parliamentary funds veto, and the STF has maintained the date of Bolsonaro’s deposition
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Feb 2024

Yesterday, the government leader in Congress, Senator Randolfe Rodrigues, said that the payroll tax relief issue would be resolved by the end of this week. He said that a solution only depended on President Lula's approval. Party leaders who are part of the Joint Budget Committee will meet to dis...

Economics: Reform proposals will not pass in the current Congress but form the key piece of a longer-term political plan by AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 20 Feb 2024

As analyzed in last week's Political Outlook, on February 5 President López Obrador unveiled a package of 18 constitutional and two legal reform proposals, ostensibly with the intention of having them discussed and approved in Congress. But as there is no possibility of these initiatives being pa...

Reflections of The International Scenario on Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Feb 2024

When an economist with the stature of Larry Summers warns of the probability, albeit low (15%), that the Fed’s next interest rate movement might be further elevation instead of a reduction, as desired by the market, it is wise to pay attention to the reasons underpinning that comment. The main on...

An air pocket in the process of financial regulation
INDIA · Report · 20 Feb 2024

There was much hope for the "fintech revolution" in India, which could potentially break with the traditions of central planning and government-led control of products and processes. A series of factors have come together to diminish these possibilities. In recent weeks, developments in financial...

After the election: Greater prospects for continuity
INDONESIA · Report · 20 Feb 2024

Indonesia's general election took place on February 14, 2024. This election was accomplished peacefully throughout the country. I can say from first-hand experience that the general election even in remote areas was conducted peacefully. As can be learned from the media, the Quick Count resul...

Despite the deep contraction in the fourth quarter, the economy is recovering
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Feb 2024

Despite the deep contraction in the fourth quarter, the economy is recovering GDP data for October–December 23 compared with the previous three months is not really relevant to the current economic environment. The fourth quarter was the deep crisis of the disaster on October 7, a sharp decline i...

Azerbaijan reappoints PM
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2024

On February 16 President Aliyev reaffirmed Ali Asadov's prime ministership. The Majilis (parliament) voted its approval of the nomination. Asadov has held this office since 2019. He is a member of the New Azerbaijan like Aliyev. He is 67 and does not overshadow the president in any way. Aliyev ha...

Post-election scenarios, a first take
TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2024 · 1 response

With the clock rapidly ticking down to the historic rendezvous on March 31, AKP candidate Murat Kurum appears to be edging out Imamoglu in the key battleground city of Istanbul. Incumbent Mansur Yavas in Ankara and new candidate Cemil Tugay in Izmir appear safe. The race is likely to witness tren...

Ukraine withdrawing from Avdiivka
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Feb 2024

On February 17 the new head of the Ukrainian Army announced the pullout is because the city is almost enveloped. This is Russia's greatest victory since Bakhmut in May 2023. The difference is that Russia suffered horrendous casualties in Bakhmut but not in Avdiivka.  General Syrsky said that the ...

Anti-corruption campaigner Navalny dies in jail
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Feb 2024

On February 16 the news was announced with no official cause of death yet. A pro-Kremlin TV channel suggested it was a blood clot. A doctor who often examined Navalny said this was impossible to determine without an autopsy. He was being held in a remote northern prison.  Navalny had been well kn...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain and Saudi deficits recorded, Kuwait’s Assembly is dissolved, Egypt plans for Rafah refugees
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Feb 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The new OPEC+ quotas were implemented in Jan (UAE +1% m/m, Saudi flat, Kuwait & Oman -5%). * Egypt is building a compound for refugees as Israel prepares for an assault on Rafah, despite US concerns and mediation efforts; ...

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