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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

As fiscal space compresses, borrowings bloat
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Oct 2024

It’s not surprising that the Philippine National Government (NG) should further increase its borrowings both from the local and external capital markets. With revenue collections amounting to P2.993 trillion for the first eight months of 2024, equivalent to 17.1% of GDP, and expenditures totaling...

Kazakh economy keeps growing at decent rate, results by segments remain mixed
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Oct 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 9M24, the short-term indicator (the Bureau’s monthly flash estimate of the country’s economic activity) grew by 5.3% y-o-y and seemingly accelerated sharply in September as, in 8M24, it was up by 4.4%. Note that this measure is weighted activity ...

Waiting for the Man
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Oct 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * As we have come to expect in the past few months, September’s data release was disappointing, with the demand side struggling to keep pace with a not-especially-brisk supply side. Import growth was much weaker than export growth, and what little i...

Zelenskiy hints at resurrecting nuclear weapons, sending a mild warning to an indecisive West
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Oct 2024

Today in Brussels, while presenting the Victory Plan to EU leaders, President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned that during his conversation with Donald Trump in September, he told Trump that Ukraine would either join NATO or pursue nuclear weapons. The narrative about the need to resurrect nuclear we...

The government will discuss parliamentary fund transfers, a working group on credit costs may be installed, and the market is concerned about two bills on state-owned companies
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Oct 2024

According to the government leader in Congress, Senator Randolfe Rodrigues (PT-AP), next week there will be a meeting between representatives of the three branches of government to address the issue of parliamentary fund transfers. The Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, said ...

Negotiating fiscal reform an uphill battle
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 17 Oct 2024

The government presented its tax reform proposal, which seeks to increase tax revenues by $2 billion, equivalent to 1.5% of GDP. The tax reform burden will primarily fall on individuals, due to the increase in consumption, income and property taxes, which account for 82% of the additional revenue...

Heightened uncertainty over disinflation pace acknowledged, but...
TURKEY · Report · 17 Oct 2024

As expected, the CBRT/MPC remained on hold today, keeping the policy rate (one week repo) at 50%. The first paragraph appears to have been modified somewhat, while the rest of the statement regarding disinflation strategy and monetary policy guidance is exactly the same with September statement.

Zelenskiy's Victory Plan – no territorial concessions
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Oct 2024

There are gloomy expectations across the country, as everyone understands that the results of the U.S. elections could dramatically change our lives—something completely beyond our control. Against this backdrop, Zelenskiy's Victory Plan seems to be an effort to show that Ukrainian leadership is ...

The Executive Office removed the urgent status of three bills, Senator Braga delayed the presentation of the Tax Reform bill work schedule, and Minister Tebet discussed important fiscal matters
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2024

Yesterday, the Executive Office withdrew the constitutional urgent status of three bills sent to the National Congress: Bill 3.335/24, concerning gas subsidies; Bill 3.337/24, regarding the transfer of local surpluses for the ongoing exploration and production of oil and natural gas; and Bill 3.3...

The exchange rate anchor finally gave in
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Oct 2024

On Friday, October 11, the unsustainability of the policy of anchoring the official exchange rate materialized. The BCV sold $30 million in an “auction” in which it gave signals about the price it was looking for and took the rate to 39.75 bolivars per dollar, marking an increase of 3 percent in ...

From dark to darker
ECUADOR · Forecast · 15 Oct 2024

Our September report was entitled “A dark fourth quarter". That is precisely what we expect for the past quarter, with the problem of blackouts of up to 10 hours for every industrial and household sector and no near-term solution in sight, since rain—the main ally of a slow government—will not be...

Economics: Afores (private pension funds) could be the next source for financing the growing public deficit
MEXICO · Report · 15 Oct 2024

Public finances have continually weakened, especially in the past three years, with ever-increasing public deficits. For 2024, it is estimated that the public deficit will close at nearly 6% of GDP. The factors underpinning this forecast are that the federal government accelerated its spending to...

Downward inflation surprise in September reduces chances of tightening in the near future
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Oct 2024

September’s inflation print (-0.2% m/m 3.5% y/y moderating from 3.6%) came in below market expectations of no change (0,0%, ours as well). Core inflation moderated as well to 3.0% y/y from 3.1%. Housing rental price (OER) accelerated slightly to 2.8% y/y from 2.6%. The big surprise came from airf...

Politics: Judicial reform advances but conflicts continue, with major potential consequences
MEXICO · Report · 15 Oct 2024

Morena and AMLO’s much touted judicial reform has passed the legislative procedural hurdles, and the National Electoral Institute (INE) has agreed to organize the election of judges, justices, magistrates, with the first election slated for next June. However, the fight is far from over, and the ...

Lira has scheduled a Congressional session for this week with virtual attendance, the FPE will meet with Barreirinhas to discuss the 15% tax on multinationals, and the CAE holds a public hearing to discuss the impact of Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2024

The President of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), has scheduled a Congressional session for this week but has allowed for virtual attendance. In other words, the session can be attended remotely by the deputies. Today, the Parliamentary Front for Entrepreneurship (FPE) will meet with the Special S...

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