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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Monetary loosening likely to be postponed until hostilities subside
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Oct 2023

1. Governor Yaron has strongly emphasized that monetary loosening will be postponed until after shekel stabilization. 2. The shekel could stabilize in the short run (or even appreciate), assuming more certainty regarding a limited scope of the conflict. 3. Recent data underline Israel’s pos...

Armenia ready to give Azerbaijan (and Turkey) what they want without a fight
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 30 Oct 2023

While the world is focused on the Middle East, there has been a flurry of events in the South Caucasus that continue to fire the imagination of those that still anticipate an imminent joint Azeri/Turkish invasion of sovereign Armenia to join Turkey and Azerbaijan by land. And why not? There were ...

Crowd storms Russian airport
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Oct 2023

On October 29 people in Dagestan burst onto the airport runway in a failed attempt to stop a flight from Israel landing at Makhachkala Airport. The people were protesting against Israel's attacks on Gaza. Dagestan is a Muslim majority republic of Russia. They were angry that Israelis can come to ...

Middle East controls our destiny
TURKEY · Report · 29 Oct 2023

This politics-only Weekly is dedicated to understanding President Erdogan’s motives. By sending the legislation on the ratification of Swedish membership in NATO, he looked like a good team player. He also remained comparatively composed in the early days of the Israel-HAMAS war, only to blow off...

Azerbaijan-Turkey military exercises
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2023

On October 23 the two countries began three days of joint drills. The two countries speak almost the same language and often boast of their fraternal relationship. 3,000 troops took part in the drills, which are named in honor of the founder of the Turkish Republic, Ataturk. Some of the drills to...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar mediation on Gaza progresses, PIF announced auto deals at FII, Eni signs LNG deal with Qatar, Egypt seeks another $5bn deposit
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Oct 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The IEA revised down its 2050 oil & gas projections but sees the Middle East’s share growing. * The casualty count rose sharply in Gaza, including nearly 3,000 children, and supplies have run low. * Qatar mediated the rel...

Next week Lira will meet with Haddad to discuss the ICMS subsidy, there will be a federal holiday on Thursday, and the Central Bank is expected to further reduce the basic interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Oct 2023

Next week, Lira will hold a meeting with Fernando Haddad to discuss the bill that deals with the ICMS subsidy. The text had been sent through a provisional measure but was poorly received by Congress. There continues to be resistance regarding the content of the article. We will have another holi...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Tajikistan: Steady as it goes (for now)
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Oct 2023

This report on Tajikistan completes the task of providing detailed chart packs on individual countries in the CCA region. Tajikistan’s economy has performed better than anticipated this year with GDP growth having expanded by 8.2 percent over the first eight months of the year. While traditio...

Money, money, money…it´s not always sunny. The contract with Minera Panama approved by legislators and ratified by Cortizo, but the positive impact on public finances is overshadowed by nationwide protests against the contract
PANAMA · Report · 27 Oct 2023

The end of the year presents a challenge for Panama's public finances as the likelihood of meeting fiscal targets diminishes due to lower-than-expected revenue collection. The final quarter's performance, hinging on the Panama Canal, remains critical to closing this gap. Currently, the government...

Russian industry continues to expand, albeit still moderately
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

Rosstat reported that industrial production grew by 3.3% y-o-y in 9M23, and the figure appears not very impressive. However, it is still skewed by base effects. The more indicative could be a look at 3Q23 and September statistics. It grew by 5.3% and 5.6% (y-o-y in both cases) in these two period...

Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Oct 2023

Fiscal space, defined as the government’s flexibility in choosing to increase spending, is a concept closely tied to the sustainability of the public debt. Countries where the real interest rate is lower than the rate of economic expansion have greater fiscal space than countries in which the rea...

The MPC delivers the consensus again
TURKEY · Report · 26 Oct 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate by another 500 bps today to 35%, in line with the consensus forecast. As for the content of the statement, the paragraph on inflation presents a mixed – and a broadly agreeable -- picture on the inflation outlook, with “the “pass-through from tax regulations...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

In response to the recent excessive FX market volatility, the Russian authorities imposed some additional elements of capital controls. Since mid-October, the main 43 exporters are obliged to repatriate not less than 80% of their export revenues and then to sell on the local market not less than ...

Disinflation will slow substantially in 2024
HUNGARY · Forecast · 26 Oct 2023

Forecasting the rest of 2023 seems easy. CPI-inflation is safely set to fall well below 10% by December, and the MNB sterilization rate will be most likely reduced at similar speed, while remaining positive in real terms. With a substantially improving current account, this should be sufficient t...

Russia recruiting from prisons again
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

The Defense Ministry is seeking men in prison to volunteer for service in Ukraine. Previously it was Wagner Group that did this. The men are offered their freedom and the expungement of their criminal records if they survive 6 months at the front. Salaries are USD 2,000 a month. This is enormous ...

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