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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 28 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Oct 29
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Chile databank Oct 29
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Oct 1
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Dominican Republic databank Oct 21
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Oct 31
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Hungary databank Oct 17
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Oct 21
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Nov 4
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Philippines databank Oct 8
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Poland databank Nov 3
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Russia Economics databank Oct 16
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South Africa databank Nov 3
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Turkey databank Oct 27
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Nov 3
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CHILE ELECTION BRIEFING: AFTER THE GENERAL ELECTIONS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Challenging times
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jul 2024 · 1 response
Costa Rica experienced a deceleration in several key macroeconomic indicators during H1 2024. According to latest official data, economic activity growth slowed due to a combination of external and internal factors. Externally the economic situation was stable, with low growth rates of most tradi...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jul 2024
OVERVIEW THE SHORTSIGHTEDNESS OF DEMAGOGY Encouraged by the slight improvement, within the margin of error, in the assessment of his government, especially among low-income groups, Lula jettisoned promises made after meeting with Haddad and economists sympathetic to the government and retur...
Economics: April-May indicators confirm slowing as non automotive manufacturing and exports take another hit
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jul 2024
The most recent reading of Mexico’s monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) show a clear deceleration for April-May 2024, in which the annual growth rate slowed to 1.2% following expansions of 2.3% in the first quarter and 3.2% for full-year 2023. Under the impact of the deep drought that ravaged major agricult...
Politics: Mexico to face numerous unprecedented challenges in the event Trump takes power next January
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jul 2024
The fundamental idea underlying the relationship between Mexico and the United States over the last three or four decades held that the two countries need one another, with both approaching bilateral relations as complementary partners. The high probability of Donald Trump's return to the White H...
Smoothing out the transition process
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Jul 2024
The Indonesian government is currently experiencing a lengthy and smooth transition period from the Joko Widodo presidency to that of the new leader, the incoming President Prabowo Subiyanto. During this period, the two leaders have seemed to show a deep understanding as to how to move the hand-o...
Russian mercenaries killed in Mali
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Jul 2024
On July 25-26 fighting against rebels to led to the deaths of at least several Wagner fighters as well as Malian soldiers. The rebel groups call themselves the Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security and Development. The Malian Army admitted to suffering 12 casualties. Social media show...
Risk of escalation weighs on markets
ISRAEL · Report · 29 Jul 2024
1. The elevated risk of escalation in the North weighed on markets on Sunday and is likely to impact the shekel early this week. 2. The labor market remains tight, with strong employment growth in June. 3. Foreigners continued to reduce their government bond market share in May.
Taking stock
TURKEY · Report · 28 Jul 2024 · 2 responses
The single essay of the politics section is dedicated to guessing when early elections will be held and how the timing would impact Minister Simsek-led Economic Stabilization Program. President Erdogan doesn’t have the votes to legislate a new constitution, thus the only method for him to bypass ...
Elevated escalation risks in the North impacts markets
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Jul 2024
Geopolitics: 12 young people were killed and many more wounded by a missile fired by Hizballah on a Druze village in the Northern Golan Heights. Markets declined sharply on Sunday as this has increased the possibility of a significant escalation in the North. Meanwhile, cease-fire talks with Hama...
Russian crude oil exports to the CEE continue - an update on Ukraine sanctioning Lukoil
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Jul 2024
A lot of things have been said on this already, but much of the related news has been partially or fully inaccurate, or even outright disinformation in some cases. Most importantly, Ukraine's most recently introduced sanction stopping Lukoil crude oil shipments to Central Europe via the Druzhba 2...
NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 13.0% amid faster inflation and FX volatility
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Jul 2024
Predictably, the NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 13.0% after the July 25th meeting. The accelerating inflation (+2.2% m/m and +4.8% y/y in June), substantial volatility in the FX market (with the hryvnia breaking the 42 per US dollar mark), and stagnant growth of hryvnia deposits made ...
Growth and challenges ahead: the 2024-2025 economic forecast
PANAMA · Forecast · 26 Jul 2024
The economic outlook for 2024-2025 predicts real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2024 and 4.0% in 2025, supported by major investments and recovering Canal operations. Key risks include the effects of the cessation of copper mining, high interest rates and fiscal deficits. Inflation will rise slightly, and...
GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait returns to deficit, Dubai GDP robust in Q1, Turkey returns Saudi $5bn, UAE considers Gaza role
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Jul 2024 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude is set for a third weekly decline, to about $80. * The GCC fiscal surplus fell to 0.4% of GDP in 2023 as spending rose 8% and revenue fell by -10%. * Saudi tourism numbers surged by 65% in 2023, led by the lei...
Kazakhstan macro: Lacking tax revenue, the emphasis is on non-tax revenue
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 26 Jul 2024
As the tenge recently hovered about USD/KZT 475, which was much better for the budget than USD/KZD 440s, it seemed insufficient to obtain more tax revenues. A year ago, we argued that a USD/KZT level above 500 would have been much more desirable for collecting additional tax revenues, as well as ...
Celso Amorim will represent Brazil during the Venezuelan elections, MGI representatives will meet with the Sinagências to prevent a strike, and the STF will resume activity next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jul 2024
Special Advisor for Foreign Policy, Celso Amorim, will be in Venezuela on Sunday as the Brazilian government's representative for the presidential elections to take place there on Sunday, July 28. Depending on what happens, the Brazilian government may need to make a strong statement. On Monday, ...