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Economy and politics, too hot for comfort
TURKEY · Report · 12 Nov 2023

Turkey is back to the days when each morning brings a new shock, a new crisis. This week’s menu was topped by vicious sniping between two of Turkey’s three highest courts, with ostensibly one of the rivals being provoked by Messrs. Erdogan and Bahceli. By Sunday, Ankara was close to a constitutio...

Business sentiment falls sharply as hostilities persist
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Nov 2023

Geopolitics: Israel’s ground operation into Gaza continues, as do sporadic missile fire into Israel from Gaza, although at a decreasing pace. The Israeli army is consolidating its control on northern Gaza and is proceeded slowly to deal with the massive tunnel network especially in Gaza city (inc...

Latvia's former interior ministry convicted of spying for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Nov 2023

On November 10 the court found that Janis Adamsons has worked for the Russian Federal Security Service and gathered intelligence for decades. He was awarded 8 years in jail. A Russian citizen was his accomplice, and a former KGB officer was given 7 years.  Adamsons was interior minister in the mi...

Russian missile hits merchant ship in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2023

On November 10 Ukraine claimed that a Russian missile struck the Liberian flagged-cargo ship in Odesa and 1 sailor was killed. Russia has neither confirmed nor denied this. The ship was hit with an anti-radar missile, so the strike might be accidental. Kyiv claimed the ship was due to take iron o...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi Q3 revenue better than reported, Saudi FDI revised up, Dubai budgets strong surpluses, Qatar signs China LNG deal
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Nov 2023 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude dropped below $80 for the first time since July on demand concerns. * The conflict in north Gaza intensified, and Qatar hosted the Mossad and CIA chiefs for hostage mediation. * Saudi Arabia is hosting emergen...

Justice Barroso modified his vote in the FGTS correction case, the Tax Reform proposal still has not been submitted to the House, and there will be a federal holiday on Wednesday next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Nov 2023

Yesterday, November 9, during the trial of the case on the FGTS correction index in the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Justice Luís Barroso, rapporteur of the case, modified his vote postponing the change in the TR correction for savings to 2025. This was a government request. Also yesterday, the r...

Webinar replay: Venezuela - What's Next?
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Nov 2023

With the US easing of sanctions on Venezuela's energy industries, what is ahead for the country and where are the opportunities? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy as she discusses what's next for Venezuela.

Spending plan 2024 approved with 20.6% GDP deficit
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Nov 2023

On November 9th, the Verkhovna Rada approved the 2024 spending plan, which saw only modest changes from the initial budget proposed in September. The central budget's revenues are set at UAH 1.77 trillion, with expenditures at UAH 3.36 trillion, leading to a deficit of UAH 1.57 trillion, or 20.6%...

Albert Hirschman and China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Nov 2023

How will China’s property crash end? There are different views: *Consumption boom. Chinese economists argue that after a short period of post-Covid adjustment, consumption will increase and the economy will gradually transition to an era of new technology, including AI and semiconductors. *Du...

Slide Presentation: Venezuela - What's Next
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Nov 2023

With the US's easing of sanctions on Venezuela's energy industries, get insight into what's ahead for the country with the slide presentation from our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy, "Venezuela: What's Next".

Surprise, surprise: CPI-inflation down to a single-digit level already in October
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Nov 2023

The October figures for the headline inflation rate were -0.1% mom, 9.9% yoy, the latter falling from 12.2% yoy in September. This surprised analysts, who had a median expectation of 10.3% yoy, our own forecast figure being 10.2% yoy. Crucially, food prices fell by 0.1% mom, a very much non-seaso...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2023

The FX market remained relatively calm at the beginning of November. The widened current account surplus, accompanied by some measures of capital controls, caused the ruble to appreciate. It strengthened to R/$92 as of November 8. The new sanctions package, announced in early November, may negati...

The Tax Reform proposal was approved in the Senate, Haddad met with party leaders to discuss the ICMS subsidy, and the STF resumes analysis of the ADI on the FGTS correction
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Nov 2023

The government had an important victory in the Senate by guaranteeing the approval of the Tax Reform proposal in two rounds. The score was tight, with just 4 votes more than the minimum required, at 53 votes in favor and 24 against. Yesterday, November 8, Haddad met with Lira and party leaders fr...

Both business expectations and consumer confidence decline sharply
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Nov 2023

October’s Business Sentiment Survey points to a sharp deterioration in expectations for growth next month (November), with this component declining to -23 points from +0.4 in September. The employment expectation component also turned net negative to -14.65 from 1.16. The construction sector is e...

Federal budget surplus narrows as revenues climb
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget surplus narrowed to R1.235 trln in 10M23. The original officially approved 2023 budget targeted a deficit of R2.925 trln. The deficit was widest in 4M23 (R3.049 trln) as the government spent money ahead of schedule in the early year to fina...

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