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Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Nov 2023

As the federal budget was in surplus for the last three months, it acted as a liquidity absorber from the money market, which pushed short-term interest rates above the key rate. Since mid-November RUONIA fluctuated within the 15.01-15.08% range, while earlier in November it was more than 50 bps ...

Philippine macroeconomy: not exactly a Goldilocks scenario
PHILIPPINES · Report · 22 Nov 2023

The first three quarters' data on the Philippine output performance shows some recovery, although it would be difficult to achieve the lower end of the output target of 6-7 percent for 2023. Growth drivers are challenged on both the domestic and global fronts. Inflation for the first ten months r...

The CAE may vote on the offshore funds bill, Deputy Forte should submit his report on the LDO, and the STF is expected to adjudicate the ICMS cases
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Nov 2023

The Senate Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) may vote on the bill that deals with the taxation of offshore and exclusive funds and the sports betting bill today. The two proposals can also be put to a vote in the Senate Plenary. Deputy Danilo Forte (União Brasil-CE), is expected to submit his repo...

Discord infects Erdogan and Bahceli, too
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Nov 2023

With roughly four months left to Turkey’s fateful municipal elections, the discord so prevalent among main opposition parties now infected governing partners Erdogan and Bahceli, too. Erdogan desperately wants a new Constitution to grant him eligibility for a third term—and beyond. He opened the ...

Germany to give Ukraine USD 1.3 billion in arms
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Nov 2023

On November 21 the announcement was made by the German Defense Minister, who visited Kyiv. He was marking 10 years since the Euromaidan protests began that toppled the pro-Russian president, Victor Yanukovich. On November 20 the US pledged another USD 100 million. That is a drop in the ocean comp...

MNB rate decision as expected, vice governor hinted at base rate's future path
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Nov 2023

Today's rate decision was another 75 bps reduction of the base rate, which is the effective sterilisation rate again, to 11.5%. So far, no surprise at all, analysts and everyone were almost completely sure about this outcome. However, the more interesting part was what vice governor Virág said in...

“...E La Nave Va”
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Nov 2023

“…And the ship sails on” The IBC-Br published last week leaves no doubts: GDP growth is clearly decelerating (Graph 1). After all, the path through which the restrictive monetary policy reduces inflation is the decline of actual GDP in relation to potential GDP. Even though the successive redu...

Senator Vieira submitted his final report on the taxation of offshore funds bill, the Senate will conclude discussions on the PEC that limits monocratic decisions in the STF, and Deputy Forte should submit his report on the LDO
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Nov 2023

Yesterday, November 20, Senator Alessandro Vieira (MDB-SE) submitted his report to the Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) on the bill that deals with the taxation of exclusive and offshore funds. He did not propose any changes to the merits of the text that was approved in the House. Also today, th...

In a historic ballotage the libertarian newcomer defeated a united Peronism, signaling the end of a “toxic status quo”
ARGENTINA · Report · 21 Nov 2023

In last Sunday's runoff election, the Libertarian Javier Milei managed a surprisingly solid victory against the incumbent Peronist Economy Minister Sergio Massa. With a result of 55.7% against 44.3% (accounting for only the valid vote), Milei obtained a better-than-expected lead of nearly 11pp. ...

Politics: Movements towards the 2024 presidential elections
MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2023

It is now clear which presidential candidates will be on the ballot next year. While it has long been known that Xóchitl Gálvez will head up the ticket of the PAN, PRI and PRD alliance Broad Front for Mexico (FAM) and Claudia Sheinbaum that of Morena and its minor party allies, last week the Citi...

Haddad vs. the PT and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Nov 2023

Congress may complete the vote on the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO). In the Senate, a bill on taxing sports betting may be put to a vote. The rapporteur of the bill on the taxation of exclusive and offshore funds may submit his report in the Senate. President Lula is expected to sanction the payrol...

Q3 government sector data reported: the government looks interested in a strong forint at year end
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Nov 2023

The MNB released its preliminary data on Q3 financial accounts by sectors, including the government sector's net borrowing requirement (NBR) and its consolidated gross debt. This shows the NBR at 5.9% of GDP in January-September and the gross debt ratio at 75% of GDP at end-September. The NBR, ty...

RC, ADN and PSC share majority in CAL and Commissions
ECUADOR · In Brief · 20 Nov 2023

The government achieved what it was looking for with the political alliance that took place last week within the Assembly—control over the two main committees that decide the fate of the economically urgent bills that Noboa intends to make the axis of his government. They obtained four out of the...

Economics: Tourism approached pre-Covid levels by the second quarter, but based on some indicators has since stalled and turned negative
MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2023

Tourism data this year shows that many areas of activity have largely rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. However, the latest figures suggest that a stagnation trend may have begun to emerge in recent months. Among tourism GDP indicators, it is worth noting that the consumption of tourism-related g...

US Defense Secretary in Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Nov 2023

On November 20 Lloyd Austin visited Ukraine for the second time since the war began. He assured Ukraine that the US is committed to helping Ukraine fight for the long term. Zelensky said Ukraine is ingratiated to the US for all its help. 55% of Ukraine's military aid comes from the United States....

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