Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA IN 2025: HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE?...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

OFZ: Temporary improvement
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023

Recent weeks have been very successful for the OFZ market. Despite the CBR's key-rate hike to 15% at the end of October, the yield growth in government bonds turned out to be limited. At the same time, demand increased in the primary market, which allowed Minfin to boost borrowing. Apparently, in...

Rate stability expected today, with an easing bias
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Nov 2023

1. A rate-hold decision today is likely, with a strong easing bias. This could entail an unscheduled revised macro forecast for 2024, including a lower policy rate forecast. 2. “Broad” unemployment spiked to 10.4% in October; one quarter of all those usually employed were absent from work for ...

Too many “known unknowns”
TURKEY · Report · 26 Nov 2023

The politics section of the monthly raises many questions, but answers few, because “events are afoot”, which could significantly alter forecasts. A more definite local elections and 2024 policy scenario will only take shape in mid-January. This being said, foreign policy turns out to be a mix...

Rate stability expected today (Monday) with a loosening bias
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Nov 2023

Geopolitics: Israel’s operation in Gaza has been put on hold for several days in exchange for the return of hostages. The ceasefire is expected to be temporary although the hostage release priority could delay the renewal of the military operation for longer than initially expected. Low level hos...

Dozens of Russian drones attack Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2023

On the night of November 24 Russia launched its largest ever air attack on Kyiv. Ukraine said that it shot down 71 drones, which was almost all of them. They were said to be Shahed drones, which are Iranian designed. However, it is thought that Russia now has its own factory to make Shaheds. Ukra...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar mediates Gaza deal, China-Saudi currency swap, Qatar-Bahrain causeway revived
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Nov 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The OPEC+ ministerial has been delayed for four days and shifted online, possibly indicating a lack of consensus. * A Qatar-mediated ceasefire began in Gaza and 24 hostages were released. * The war may have already killed...

Russian macro: The show must go on—growth above expectation amid decoupling from the West
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Nov 2023

The country's economic situation looks decent as some key macroeconomic data exceeded most optimistic expectations. It turned out that GDP grew slightly above 2.9% y-o-y in 9M23 as Rosstat reported that it increased by 5.5% y-o-y in 3Q23. Such quarterly growth was well above expectations. Even th...

What do El Niño, influenza and the car manufacturing industry have in common?
HUNGARY · Report · 24 Nov 2023

The three things mentioned in the title are all key factors that contributed positively to Hungary’s otherwise mixed macro performance in 2023. El Niño’s warm and wet weather has boosted agricultural output spectacularly, after a La Niña-related severe drought last year, saving the economy from a...

Growing number of Russians and Ukrainians want to end the war
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2023

On November 15 an organization called "Russian Field" carried out an opinion poll and showed that 49% of people wanted to negotiate an end to the war and 39% wanted to fight on. These figures have moved considerably in favor of peace talks since June 2023. The November 2023 poll also showed growi...

National Bank of Kazakhstan cuts the base rate to 15.75%
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 24 Nov 2023

On November 23, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 15.75%. The regulator referred to slowing inflation (0.7% m-o-m and 10.8% y-o-y in October) and now expects it to fall to the 9.3%-10.3% range by the end of the year. Next year's inflation target remains unchanged at...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Is Tajikistan the weakest link in the CCA in terms of its ability to repay foreign debt?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Nov 2023

In 2020 the World Bank stated that in Tajikistan “the risk of debt default is high." Ever since, this assessment has consistently carried through a variety of analyses undertaken both by IFIs and rating agencies. For example, in its most recent review of the economy, the WB re-affirmed its judgme...

Lula vetoed the extension of the payroll tax exemption, November 30 is the deadline to present edits to the 2024 Federal Budget, and the PSDB is set to elect its new leadership
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Nov 2023

President Lula vetoed, in full, the extension of the payroll tax exemption for 17 sectors of the economy and for city halls in cities with a population of up to 142,600. The total impact is estimated at R$ 11 billion. Next Thursday, November 30, is the deadline for presenting edits to the 2024 Fe...

A puzzling picture in the economy
INDIA · Report · 24 Nov 2023

We see remarkable strength in the household data—employment and consumer sentiment—over the past year. Alongside this, private investment is showing strong gains, which is a measure of the optimism of private firms, and also augments the demand side. However, this is not yet a broad-based exp...

A good, positive surprise from the MPC
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Nov 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate by 500 bps to 40% today, above the consensus forecast, including ours, of 250 bps (see chart). The statement also provides specific forward guidance now, which reads as follows (link here): “The Committee assessed that the current level of monetary tightness is...

Putin says he is open to peace talks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Nov 2023

On November 22 Putin addressed the G20 Summit by videolink. He said that everyone needed to consider ways to end the war, which he called "tragic". He blamed Ukraine for refusing peace talks. It is true that since mid 2022 Ukraine has refused to talk until Russia withdraws from Ukraine, including...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.