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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The South African economy in a precarious state pre-elections
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 15 May 2024

• South African growth: The South African economy’s slowdown continued in 2023 from 2021’s robust recovery – economic expansion in 2023 was just under a third of the growth rate registered in the preceding year. Although it had moderated by the end of the year, load-shedding reached its peak in 2...

Brief 2: Felipe Chapman will be the new Minister of Economy and Finance (MEF)
PANAMA · In Brief · 15 May 2024

The first appointments of the economic team of President-elect José Raúl Mulino (JRM) were announced today. Felipe Chapman (56) will be the next Minister of Economy and Finance (MEF). Chapman earned a BA in Economics from Brown University and an MBA from INCAE Business School. He is the president...

Jean Paul Prates was fired from Petrobras, the Working Group on Tax Reform regulation may be announced today, and the Senate may vote on the bill that suspends Rio Grande do Sul’s federal debt payment plan
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 May 2024

After several months of friction and disagreements, Jean Paul Prates has been fired from Petrobras. This is a victory for the Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira, who publicly argued with Jean Paul Prates. According to the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), the members of t...

COPOM Watch: "Make me chaste, but not yet.”
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 May 2024

The Minutes of the last Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meeting, released today, carry even greater importance than usual, as they were expected to provide the motives behind the minority vote for a stronger reduction of the benchmark Selic rate, namely 0.50 pp, in opposition to the majority de...

Brief 1: the May 5 official results
PANAMA · In Brief · 14 May 2024

The official results gave Mulino the victory in a winner-takes-all contest José Raúl Mulino, 64, was proclaimed president-elect on Thursday, May 9. with 33.4% of the valid votes in an election in which a record 77.6% of registered voters participated. The winning alliance was composed of the Real...

New single scenario given GL 44a
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 May 2024

For the remainder of 2024, we present a single scenario now, one that reflects General License 44a (GL 44A) and the current economic policy framework. Inflation in this scenario decelerates to 70 percent from last year’s 190 percent, and the exchange rate moves up 36 percent to close 2024 at 53.3...

Georgia approves foreign agent law
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 May 2024

On May 14 parliament overwhelmingly passed the bill after months of wrangling. Tens of thousands of people have demonstrated against it since April 2024. The police have sometimes used force against them. President Zurabashvili vowed to veto the bill but admits her veto will probably be overridde...

The CNI defended the approval of the bill that taxes international purchases, mayors continue to pressure for payroll tax relief, and Lira said the House should approve Rio Grande do Sul’s federal debt relief as soon as possible
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 May 2024

Yesterday, the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) defended the approval of the bill that provides for the end of tax exemptions on international purchases of up to US$50. This measure was included in the bill that creates the Green Mobility and Innovation Program (Mover) that is being analy...

Economics: An analysis of the main economic proposals put forward by the two leading presidential candidates
MEXICO · Report · 14 May 2024

The two leading presidential candidates on the ballot this June 2, Claudia Sheinbaum for Morena and Xóchitl Gálvez for the Broad Front for Mexico, have raised numerous economic proposals, both in the platforms they presented at the beginning of the campaign, as well as in multiple events and inte...

The risk of opportunism and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2024

The Ministry of Finance negotiates with mayors on the payroll tax relief issue. The STF may ratify the agreement signed last week with the 17 sectors of the economy benefiting from the exemption. In the market, the minutes of the Copom meeting that reduced the interest rate to 10.50% should be pu...

Scope and Consequences of the Dissent in the COPOM
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 May 2024

The statement issued after the last COPOM meeting displayed a hawkish tone in evaluating both the international and domestic scenarios, recognizing that the dynamism of activity and the labor market in Brazil is stronger than expected. In addition to this, the members unanimously stated that the ...

Politics: Excesses of power in electoral times as AMLO targets widow who dared to criticize his government
MEXICO · Report · 13 May 2024

It has long been noted that President López Obrador's personal style of governing is characterized by an intolerance of criticism and a highly inflated sense of his historical importance. As we near the end of his administration, more and more balance sheets of his government have begun to appear...

Russian macro: GDP can grow above 4% in 2024 if PM’s 1Q24 number is correct
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 13 May 2024

On May 12, the recently re-appointed PM Mr. Mishustin, while speaking in the Duma, announced that in 1Q24, the country’s GDP grew by 5.4% y-o-y. The number came from the latest Economics Ministry publication. Interestingly, the Ministry upgraded its 2024 growth forecast at the end of April to 2.8...

The government reached an agreement on payroll tax relief, the Federal Government is expected to announce a debt renegotiation plan for Rio de Grande do Sul, and Congress is preparing for the Working Groups on Tax Reform regulation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2024

Last week, the government reached an agreement on payroll tax relief for 17 sectors of the economy. Because the matter has gone to court, it needs to be approved by the Supreme Federal Court (STF). Regarding the state of public emergency in Rio de Grande do Sul (RS), the Federal Government is exp...

Russian Defense Minister replaced
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 May 2024

On May 12 it was announced that Sergei Shoigu has been removed as Defense Minister and has been appointed the Secretary of the Security Committee instead. Because of his new post it is clear that Shoigu is not disgraced. However, his new post is seen as a non-job. There have been significant prob...

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