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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Post-election scenarios—the governability challenges
MEXICO · Report · 28 May 2024

With the presidential, Chamber of Deputies, and Senate elections a week away, attention is already being focused on possible post-June 2 scenarios. With innumerable undefined factors at play, a post-election conflict is almost inevitable. If the race is close, whoever loses would likely challenge...

Drop off in growth – and remittances
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 May 2024

In Costa Rica, GDP growth slowdown will continue in the next 18 months. According to the Central Bank’s estimates in its April 30th Monetary Policy Report, GDP growth for 2024 and 2025 will be lower. The latest estimates showed that the economy had a mediocre start during Q1. The latest Monetary ...

Not one uncertainty but two
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 May 2024

In democratic elections, people experience uncertainty as to the outcome but certainty as to the process. In non-democratic elections, they experience the opposite. In Venezuela, we’re experiencing both. The electoral field is slanted because the Maduro government controls its shape and makes...

Brazil: Risks on The Rise
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 May 2024

During the last couple of months the perception of Brazil's fiscal and monetary risks deteriorated significantly, a trend that has worsened further recently. Last week the government's overly optimistic projection for the primary balance in 2024 once again postponed the inevitable discussion of t...

Succession in the Lower House and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 May 2024

The government may announce measures aimed at restructuring the economy of Rio Grande do Sul. A second bill on Tax Reform regulation will be sent to the National Congress. The Ministry of Finance and the Senate may discuss compensation methods for payroll tax relief. This week's Talking Points...

The bill on payroll tax exemption compensations will likely be a Provisional Measure, Lula is expected to sanction the accelerated depreciation bill, and the Working Group on Tax Reform regulation will have two meetings today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 May 2024

Yesterday, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), stated that the bill to compensate for the new format of the payroll tax exemption for sectors and municipalities will be a Provisional Measure. He stated that the text is ready, but that he will still negotiate the submission date with th...

New list of infrastructure, longer list of deliverables
PHILIPPINES · Report · 28 May 2024

The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Board, an inter-agency committee chaired by President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., approved on May 16, 2024, a total of P33.3 billion for new infrastructure projects. The approval is in line with the objective of expanding and upgrading the country...

Faster-than-expected inflation deceleration in an environment of economic contraction
ARGENTINA · Report · 28 May 2024

In the third week of May, the trend towards stability in the informal foreign exchange markets was interrupted. There was an increase in the CCL exchange rate and in country risk for the first time since February. These changes may not signify a reversal of trends but rather a circumstantial a...

A stormy meeting in the European Council, once again because of Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 May 2024

The EU's Foreign Affairs Council, the version of the European Council in which member states' foreign ministers participate, discussed EU financial assistance to Ukraine yesterday. As Reuters reported, before and at the meeting, a number of ministers, including those of Germany, Ireland, Lithuani...

Russian mercenaries in the Congo
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 May 2024

Russia increased its number of mercenaries in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 2024. The DRC is a former Belgian colony. Memories of Belgian rule mean that anti-Western sentiment is widespread. Moscow is keen to remind people in the DRC that the Soviet Union agitated for decolonization. ...

Uzbekistan and Russia agree on nuclear energy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 May 2024

On May 27 Putin visited Uzbekistan. Since 2022 he has made very few foreign trips. Russia agreed to spend USD 400 million on projects in the country. This will include building a nuclear power station in Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan is rich in uranium. The President of Uzbekistan and Putin signed sever...

Rates on hold on the back of elevated geopolitical risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 May 2024

As expected, rates remain steady at 4.5% In the past few rate decisions, the Bank of Israel has been clear regarding the overwhelming consideration of elevated geopolitical risks. Therefore, this decision was totally predictable with the war grinding on steadily in Gaza and in the North. The open...

Life in the carry trade haven
TURKEY · Report · 26 May 2024

The domestic political agenda is becoming more fragmented by the day, as President Erdogan fails to act decisively to mobilize his party and the media to guide the discussion in the direction of his strengths. The post-election polls largely reveal Ozel and CHP retaining their popularity, which c...

Putin in Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2024

On May 23 met his Belarusian counterpart. The press releases said the two presidents discussed economic cooperation and collaboration in other spheres.  Both countries have publicized the fact that they have been holding nuclear exercises. There are Russian nuclear arms in Belarus. Belarus is Rus...

Purge of Russian Army
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 May 2024

Since April 2024, 5 top military officials have been arrested. On May 23 the deputy chief of the general staff was arrested. Lieutenant General Shamarin headed the communications directorate. He has been accused of major corruption dating back to 2016. On the same day a high ranking procurement b...

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