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Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2023

The situation on the FX market has changed during the last couple of weeks. After some period of strengthening, which was triggered by a fresh version of partial capital controls, such as compulsory sales of export earnings introduced in mid-October, the ruble started to weaken and almost reached...

Two new stories: November CPI and EU funds
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Dec 2023

November data for CPI-inflation is due tomorrow. Following 9.9% yoy for the headline rate in October, Portfolio.hu's usual analyst poll has come out with median expectation of 8.2% yoy, within a 7.8-8.4% yoy range, to be followed by by a 6.2% yoy median expected for December, the latter within a ...

Deputy Faria should submit his report on the ICMS MP, a session of Congress was scheduled for next week to analyze presidential vetoes, and Tarcísio Freitas was able to approve the privatization bill for Sabesp in São Paulo
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Dec 2023

The submission of Deputy Luiz Fernando Faria's (PSD-MG) report on the provisional measure (MP) nº 1,185/23, which deals with the ICMS subsidy, was postponed from yesterday to today. As a request to review the text will likely be submitted, the vote should be postponed to next week. A session of t...

The business sector remains pessimistic, but slightly less
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Dec 2023

The CBS Business Survey for November continues to point to contraction in activity with a net balance of -1.5 (-1.9 in Oct) for the present activity component (compared to +23 in Sept). The expectations for next month are still net negative (-11.75) but less than in Oct (-23), similar to the empl...

Ukraine claims it killed traitor politician
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2023

On December 6 Kyiv said that the former deputy in the Ukrainian Parliament who defected to Russia was shot dead by its operative outside Moscow. Ilya Kyva had been tried in absentia in a Ukrainian court for high treason and sentenced to 14 years in prison. Kyva had repeatedly gone on Russian TV a...

Sharp decline in travel abroad + consumer confidence rebounds
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Dec 2023

Sharp decline in travel abroad In November, 167,000 Israelis went abroad, a decrease of 77% compared to November last year. Due to such a sharp decline in the number of passengers and in the number of flights, it is reasonable to assume that the Central Bureau of Statistics will decide not to mea...

Poor retail sales and industry data for October
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2023

Retail sales (volume terms, seasonally and day-adjusted) shrank by 0.3% mom, 6.9% yoy, the latter following -7.7% yoy in September. The Q3 figure was -7.7% yoy, and January-October was a 9.1% yoy fallback in total. The fixed-base chart (December 2010 = 100, courtesy of KSH) looked like the one be...

Deputy Faria may submit his report on the ICMS MP, the vote on the online sports betting bill was postponed to next week, and the STF should adjudicate the State-Owned Companies Law case today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Dec 2023

Deputy Luiz Fernando Faria (PSD-MG) may submit his report on the provisional measure (MP) 1185/23, which deals with the ICMS subsidy, today. Since this is the government's top priority, there is a lot of pressure on Congress. A session of Congress is scheduled for tomorrow, but activities in Bras...

Correction in my recent Market Brief
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2023

I've inadvertedly stated IYIP garnered ca 8% of the national vote in May 2023. The correct figure  is 9.6%. 

IYIP’s fateful choice may shape the outcome of municipal elections
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2023

By a 35-14 vote, Iyi Party’s top decision-making body GIK turned down a request by CHP chair Ozgur Ozel to cooperate in municipal elections. The decision to go solo in the next ballot to gauge its grass-roots support is a fateful choice by IYIP that has profound implications for the party, munici...

Putin to visit Saudi Arabia and the UAE
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2023

On December 4 the Kremlin announced the visit, which will take place this week. OPEC+ agreed on November 30 to cut output by 2.2 million barrels a day. Russia is a member of OPEC+. Markets did not react as expected because many doubt that the cuts will be implemented in full. Prices have fallen s...

The South African economy contracts in Q3 2023
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Dec 2023

Contrary to expectations for modest growth, the South African economy contracted by 0.2% q/q during the third quarter of 2023, following expansions during both quarters of H1 2023 (Q1: 0.4%; Q2: 0.5%). The contraction in the country’s real GDP came on the back of intensified headwinds domesticall...

CCA Highlights: Armenia growth still brisk in 3Q, Azerbaijan closes USAID, Georgian Dream boosted by intensifying split in opposition, S&P confirms Uzbekistan at BB-
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Dec 2023

We comment on key macro-related events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Economy grows by a robust 7.4 percent YoY in 3Q23 Armenia: Short-term economic indicator increases by 6.0 percent YoY in Oct Armenia: Hayakve (Armenian vote) initiative to be discussed in Parliament in two mo...

Belarus' president in China
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2023

On December 4 Lukashenko arrived in Beijing and met with President Xi. China is one of the very few countries willing to receive him since the disputed 2020 election. Lukashenko likes to prove that he has friends who are not just in Russia. This is the second time Xi has met Lukashenko this year ...

The reports on the appointments to the STF and PGR should be read tomorrow, the Senate is expected to vote on the bill on Fies debt forgiveness, and negotiations are ongoing regarding Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2023

Yesterday, the rapporteur for Flávio Dino's appointment to the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Senator Weverton Rocha (PDT-MA), submitted his report for analysis by the members of the Senate's Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). On Wednesday, the CCJ will meet, and Weverton is expected to read...

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