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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Broadly as expected, still sticky
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2024

Consumer prices increased by a slightly higher than expected 3.4%, m/m, in May, with the 12-month rate peaking at 75.5% up from 69.8% in April. Domestic-PPI posted a 2% increase, which raised the 12-month rate to 57.7% from 55.7% a month earlier (Graph 1; Table 1).

Essential CIS Politics: June 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 03 Jun 2024

* In Russia, the defense minister, several cabinet ministers and governors were replaced. * Putin visited Beijing and hailed its partnership with China. * The Foreign Agents Bill was passed in Georgia but vetoed by the President before being finally approved by parliament. ...

The government may announce fiscal measures to compensate for payroll tax relief, the Senate may vote on the Mover bill, and the Tax Reform GT will hold a series of public hearings
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Jun 2024

The government may announce measures to compensate for the payroll tax relief for companies and city halls. The rapporteur of the bill in the Federal Senate, Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), is waiting for the announcement of compensatory measures before he submits his report. The Senate may also vote on B...

Hi-tech service exports expand while private consumption slows
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Jun 2024

1. Hi-tech service exports continue to expand, but at a moderate pace. 2. Domestic private consumption has decelerated as more Israelis are traveling abroad. 3. The MoF has maintained its monthly issuance pace but has shortened the average duration in light of pressure for higher yields at ...

Dream summer is here, will it survive X-mas?
TURKEY · Report · 02 Jun 2024

Two months after local elections, the political analyst is able to see the end of the current political disequilibrium. In the base-case scenario, the process culminates in early elections in 2027 or 2028, which would give Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet’s Simsek’s economic stabilization pro...

Exports improve while PC demand slows
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Jun 2024

Geopolitics: President Biden is trying to push for a cease-fire and hostage release in Gaza in a three-stage agreement. The dilemma for Netanyahu remains acute as his far-right coalition partners have threatened to resign if the war ceases before Hamas is defeated. Gantz (National Unity party) is...

Zelensky in Singapore
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jun 2024

On June 1 the Ukrainian President addressed the Shangri La Dialogue Conference. He appealed to China to help end the war and ensure nuclear safety. Because China is by far Russia's biggest trading partner it has unique access. Russia was not invited to this conference. Zelensky met the Presidents...

Mulino's cabinet is set, but the composition of the legislative Assembly is in doubt. Fiscal weakness and slow growth are challenges for the next administration.
PANAMA · Report · 31 May 2024 · 2 responses

With less than six weeks to go until the new National Assembly is installed (and 25 days after the general elections on May 5), we still do not know the Assembly's definitive political composition. This uncertainty is mostly due to the strategy by a group of losing candidates and parties from the...

Fiscal rules, healthcare debacles and constitutional assemblies
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 May 2024 · 1 response

There has been so much news in Colombia, so much of it bad, that pinning down the most striking or damaging pieces poses a challenge. To start at the top: the most frequent theme of President Gustavo Petro’s many speeches seems to be his idea for convoking a constitutional assembly. That – which ...

Whopping sequential growth in Q1
TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2024

The Turkish economy grew by 5.7%, y/y, and 2.4%, q/q, in the first quarter of the year (Graph 1). The latter is much higher than (at least this author) expected and is rather broad-based, too, propelled by all demand engines with private consumption, government consumption, investment and exports...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi issues sukuk and announces Aramco secondary sale, UAE signs CEPA with Korea, Alat invests $2bn in Lenovo
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 May 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Candidates for the Iranian presidency include hardliner Saeed Jalili and former speaker Ali Larijani. * Saudi Arabia issued $5bn in dollar sukuk and extended the maturity profile for $17bn in riyal sukuk. * Aramco announc...

Changes to the ministerial team should be made after the municipal elections, the Ministry of Finance may announce fiscal measures to compensate for payroll tax relief, and the Tax Reform GT will hold a series of public hearings
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 May 2024

After the defeats the government suffered in Congress, pressure has increased for changes to be made in the ministerial team and political negotiation. However, this should only take place toward the end of the year, after the municipal elections. Today, the Ministry of Finance may announce measu...

Webinar Replay and Slide Presentation - Mexico Elections: At a Crossroad
MEXICO · Report · 31 May 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on Mexico’s elections and their potential impact on the country’s macro and politics. What are the main drivers of the electoral outlook in 2024? Will the new government preserve adequate macroeconomic fundamentals? Will Morena and its al...

May CCA Highlights: Armenia grows by 9.2% in 1Q24, Azerbaijan and Georgia stick with rate cuts, Uzbekistan's CPI jumps on higher utility tariffs, Tajikistan grows by 8.3% in 1Q
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 31 May 2024

We comment briefly on the key macro events in the CCA region in May: Armenia: GDP expands by 9.2% YoY in 1Q Armenia: Monthly economic indicator slows to 10.4% YoY in Apr Armenia: Deflation lingers on in Apr Armenia: Budget posts small deficit in 1Q24 Armenia: Foreign reserves decrease to U...

Mixed feelings towards Belarus in the EU
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 May 2024

On May 29 the Hungarian Foreign Minister visited Belarus. This is the first visit by the foreign minister of an EU country for several years. The Hungarian Government is the most sympathetic to Russia and Belarus of all the EU governments. Minsk and Budapest signed an agreement on cooperation on ...

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