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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

President Boluarte under fire; real GDP to accelerate in Q2; BCRP’s easing cycle nears its end
PERU · Report · 21 May 2024

We cover three topics in this report. First, we discuss the likelihood of Congress impeaching President Dina Boluarte. Then, we evaluate Peru’s economic performance, suggesting that real GDP remained stagnant throughout Q1 2024. We expect a rebound in Q2 2024, on the back of fiscal stimulus, and ...

The Senate may vote on the urgent status of the payroll tax exemption bill, the financial impact of the Five Year PEC will be reviewed, and the House may vote on the Mover bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 May 2024

Today, the Senate may vote on the urgent status request for the bill (PL 1,847/2024) that implements the agreement between Congress and the Executive Office on payroll relief, both for companies and municipalities. The President of the Federal Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), said yesterday that...

Election Monitor IV: Optimistic politicians and unpredictable voters
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 May 2024

In less than 10 days, on May 29, the SA voters will have their day to express their preferences and put an end to the current cacophony of political noise, baseless promises and over-optimistic expectations of many political leaders. Recently, the country’s top court, the Constitutional Court ...

Philippines-China Maritime Row: Getting uglier
PHILIPPINES · Report · 21 May 2024

How China would react to defensive moves of the Philippines is the big question. It would have to rethink its use of powerful lasers and water cannons, for even the US Indo-Pacific Command had at one point expressed the view that if this results in the death of any sailor or military personnel, ...

Serious harm, little gain
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 May 2024

The Law for the Protection of Social Security Pensions from Imperialist Blockade (LPP) went into effect on May 8, 2024, creating a new tax of up to 15% of formal and informal private employers' salary and non-wage bonus payments. The rate was set at 9% by presidential decree on May 16 . The new ...

Ministerial Reform on the radar and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2024

This week we expect the installation of a Working Group in the House to discuss Tax Reform regulation. In the Federal Senate, the bill that deals with tax relief for companies and city halls may be put to a vote. Mayors will march on Brasília. The Petrobras Board may approve the appointment of Ma...

Politics: Races tighten; although Sheinbaum remains in the lead, the scenario of a reduced margin is more likely
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2024

The presidential contest has narrowed recently due to a slight decrease in pro-Sheinbaum voting intentions while Xóchitl Gálvez has held steady, and the only candidate to pick up more support is third place challenger Máynez, although he remains just outside double-digit ranges. One online poll, ...

Extra Caution, Less Cuts
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 May 2024

The current domestic scenario has been characterized by resilient activity, marked by positive surprises at the beginning of the year, and an increasingly tight labor market. In the Copom minutes, the Committee indicates that in this context, combined with the adverse external environment and unm...

Iran’s president dies – what comes next?
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 May 2024

* President Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian died in a helicopter crash. * There has been no suggestion of foul play. * Elections are due by July 9, and a handpicked hardliner will win. * This comes as a sensitive time, when Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei may not have long to live a...

What will China do about excess housing?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 May 2024 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The Third Plenum is scheduled to be held in July, much later than the expected October or November date last year. Most analysts believe the long delay suggests the lack of a consensus over how to address weak domestic demand, a rapidly contracting...

The Senate should vote on the payroll tax exemption bill, the Working Group on Tax Reform regulation may be installed this week, and the TRE-RJ should review the impeachment case against the governor of Rio de Janeiro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2024

This week, the Senate will vote on Senator Efraim Filho's (União-PB) bill to exempt payroll taxes for 17 sectors of the economy. According to the agreement with the government, there will be a gradual resumption of the tax at a rate of 5% in 2025, 10% in 2026, 15% in 2027, and 20% in 2028. The in...

Economics: Indicators for the first months of 2024 suggest a gradual yet sustained weakening of economic activity
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2024

The first months of 2024 have witnessed a gradual but sustained weakening of economic activity that comes on top of other economic challenges, both internal and external, that will be exacerbated during 2025. On the supply side, the monthly GDP proxy IGAE showed 1.9% yoy average growth for the...

Inflation is expected to accelerate
ISRAEL · Report · 20 May 2024

1. Despite strong GDP growth in Q124, the level of activity remains significantly below potential. 2. Inflation is expected to accelerate on the back of fiscal expansion, a tight labor market and excess demand in the housing market. 3. As long as geopolitical risks remain elevated, it is di...

President Abinader re-elected in the first round.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 May 2024

With 59.05% of the votes counted in his favor and the recognition of his victory by his adversaries Abel Martinez and Leonel Fernández, President Luis Abinader has been reelected in the first round. So far, only 44% of the votes have been counted. The total vote obtained so far by Leonel Fernánde...

Damn the package, full speed ahead
TURKEY · Report · 19 May 2024

The post-election shakeup in Turkish politics continues at an accelerating pace, with surprising twists and turns. The current fashion is “normalization”, which obviously means different things to each protagonist, but in essence entails rapprochement between rival blocs and more cooperative deci...

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