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Divergent views on how the war might end
UKRAINE · Report · 29 Nov 2023

The lack of significant land gains in Ukraine's 2023 summer counter-offensive has sparked intensive discussions about a potential stalemate in the war, and the West's vision for its conclusion. General Valery Zaluzhny's essay in The Economist, widely interpreted as an admission that the front has...

The Joint Committee on the ICMS subsidies bill should be installed, the Senate may vote on the sports betting and offshore funds bills, and Deputy Forte is expected to submit his final report on the LDO
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Nov 2023

The Joint Committee is scheduled to be installed today to analyze provisional measure 1185/23, which deals with ICMS subsidies. The rapporteur will be Deputy Luiz Fernando Faria (PSD-MG). The Ministry of Finance is negotiating changes to the text. The bill that deals with the taxation of offshore...

Iudex locuta, causa finita…ma non troppo
PANAMA · In Brief · 28 Nov 2023

After a week of demonstrations in front of the Supreme Court building in Panama City, road blockades, and media pressure, on the early morning of Tuesday (a holiday in Panama), the CSJ declared Law 406, which approved the contract between the government and Minera Panama (a subsidiary of Canada's...

Western nations suspect Turkey of conniving at sanctions busting
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2023

On November 27 The Financial Times reported that Turkey's sale of militarily applicable goods to Russia has shot up since 2022. There are 45 items that are dual use. They are sold to Russia directly or indirectly. The explanation is that they have a civilian use as well as a military one. The ite...

The MNB is under friendly fire: rating agencies appear to be worried
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Nov 2023 · 1 response

A few days ago, we wrote in our monthly report that the government may step up supporting the MNB's strong forint policy towards end-2023, because of its desire to present a materially decreasing debt ratio. But so far, actual events do not seem to support our forecast. The MNB has received criti...

The STF decided that the government can pay off civil liens with extraordinary credit, Lula confirmed Dino’s appointment to the STF, and the vote on the offshore tax bill was postponed to tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Nov 2023

Yesterday, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) formed a majority in the adjudication of the Direct Act of Unconstitutionality (ADI) on civil liens. Eight ministers voted to allow the federal government to pay the stock of civil liens with extraordinary credit. Yesterday, President Lula confirmed the ...

Economics: Construction boosts GDP growth in the third quarter, while manufacturing stagnates
MEXICO · Report · 28 Nov 2023

Third quarter GDP data released Friday was closely in line with what Inegi estimated roughly a month earlier in the preliminary figures, with the economy growing an annual 3.3% and a cumulative 3.6% for the first nine months of the year. Growth continues to be driven, above all, by the constructi...

Peru: Attorney General under pressure to resign
PERU · In Brief · 27 Nov 2023 · 2 responses

This morning Attorney Marita Barreto, in charge of investigating corruption in the State, raided the homes of two close advisors of Attorney General Patricia Benavides. They found WhatsApp chats between these two advisors and several congress-members and offered evidence that Benavides had been p...

Growth remains solid
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Nov 2023

Indonesia's economy posted an encouraging result for Q3 2023, registering growth of 4.94%, only slightly lower than the 5.17% annual growth for Q2 2023. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy expanded by 1.60%, which followed the regular cycle. While the growth rate for the Q3 w...

Politics: General presidential campaigns de facto underway as FAM campaign struggles to gain traction and MC looks for opening opportunities
MEXICO · Report · 27 Nov 2023

According to the electoral authority’s calendar, each party’s campaign to choose its respective presidential candidate got underway November 20. But in the latest example of election law's distantly lagging political reality, those pre-campaigns have been unfolding for many months, with the two m...

Interest Rates in the USA, Term Premium and Reflections on Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023

Since Brazil is integrated in international capital flows, the Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions must consider what happens in the United States, and to clarify the importance of this fact, nothing is better than an example. In 2020, against the backdrop of the pandemic, the Federal Reserv...

Polls underscore challenges for the government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023

President Lula travels to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Germany. Leaders in the House negotiate the Tax Reform voting schedule. The Federal Senate may vote on the offshore and sports betting bills. The National Congress may analyze presidential vetoes. This week's Talking ...

Budget deficits grow as FX sales from the National Fund appreciate the tenge and trim revenues
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Nov 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 10M23, the republican budget deficit reached KZT 2.9trln, while the plan for this period was far smaller (KZT 2.355 trln) as the deficit for 2023, as a whole, assumed the KZT 3.209 total amount. In 10M23, the government financed 78.0% of annual planned exp...

Rates on hold with a loosening bias
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Nov 2023

Rates on hold with a loosening bias Policy rates remained unchanged today at a level of 4.75%. Inflation has moderated but remains slightly above target, and the economy is recovering in some components of activity. During the press conference, Governor Yaron stressed that monetary loosening will...

Lula travels to Saudi Arabia this week, the president of the House will meet with party leaders to discuss Tax Reform, and a session of Congress is scheduled for Tuesday to analyze presidential vetoes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023

President Lula travels to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Germany this week. He will be accompanied by ministers, governors, and legislators. Participation in COP28 is scheduled for December 1 and 2. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and the Tax Reform rapporteur,...

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