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Trade data points to recovery, core trade deficit continues to shrink
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Mar 2024

In February, there was a rapid increase in both industrial exports and imports (seasonally adjusted). Industrial exports increased by 9.5 percent (compared with January), mainly pharmaceuticals, electronic components, and defense exports. Exports rose 7.1% in Dec-February, following a similar dec...

Biden approves USD 300 million in military aid for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Mar 2024

On March 12 the US President said this is needed to keep Ukraine in the fight. The money given is what the US military has saved on recent purchases. Therefore, the President has the authority to spend it. Usually Congress and not the president has the power of the purse. Most of the aid will be ...

The House approved a bill that increases the income tax exemption limit, the STJ may adjudicate the case on the calculation of the ICMS, and the Comsefaz will meet to discuss the ICMS rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Mar 2024

Yesterday, the House approved a bill that makes it possible to exempt individuals from the Income Tax (IRPF) on amounts up to two minimum wages (R$2,842.00). The measure is included in Bill 81/24, which will now be sent to the Senate. Also today, the 1st Section of the Superior Court of Justice (...

China's growth and the Two Sessions
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Mar 2024

Investors are hoping that China finds a magic wand to reach the 5 percent plus growth target for 2024. Following the Two Sessions, one of the tools the government plans to use is fiscal, rather than monetary, stimulus. However, there is limited room for fiscal growth given the significant debt bu...

Current account surplus improves + institutions sell some FX in January
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Mar 2024

Yesterday's shekel depreciation (1.1% against the basket) occurred despite the increases in overseas markets and positive news regarding an increase in the current account surplus in the fourth quarter, to $10.5 billion, compared with $4.7 billion in the third quarter. The goods and services acco...

Ricardo Martinelli (via his alter ego José Raúl Mulino) leads the polls by a wide margin
PANAMA · In Brief · 12 Mar 2024

Today, the newspaper La Prensa published the latest presidential survey, in which José Raúl Mulino leads voter preferences with 26%, followed by a technical tie among candidates Ricardo Lombana (10.8%) of the MOCA party, Martin Torrijos with the Popular Party (10.8%), and Rómulo Roux (10.2%), lea...

Kazakh President in Azerbaijan to hail transport link
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Mar 2024

On March 11 President Tokayev was in Baku for the arrival of the first containers to travel from China to Azerbaijan via Kazakhstan. This is via rail and the Caspian Sea, a route of 7,000 km. The journey took 11 days. The plan is for 10 such consignments to travel each month. Tokayev's 2-day visi...

Opposition prepares for 2026 election; recovery gains speed in Q1; BCRP to pause through May-June
PERU · Forecast · 12 Mar 2024

In this report, we summarize our latest forecasts. First, we discuss possible political scenarios. We analyze the recent Cabinet reshuffle, the resignation of Prime Minister Alberto Otárola and the appointment of his replacement Gustavo Adrianzén (our view is that this has changed little). Next, ...

Economics: Revenue shortfalls and accelerating spending again squeeze public finances, with further deterioration foreseeable this year
MEXICO · Report · 12 Mar 2024

Public balances (budgetary, primary and total financial requirements) experienced a significant deterioration in the first month of the year that was in line with the trend of recent months. Although monthly balances tend to be marked by significant volatility, the factors that determined the lat...

Politics: Amid signs the race is tightening, uncertainty as to the direction a Sheinbaum government might take
MEXICO · Report · 12 Mar 2024

Now that the final leg of the 2024 presidential election campaign is underway, much remains up in the air. Polls continue to offer strikingly different views of the direction in which voter preferences are trending, with many showing the race tightening, and overall, tending to dispel any thesis ...

European Parliament will take the EU Commission to court on funds to Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Mar 2024

The forint is going through a difficult period indeed. This morning, it once again went to a new one-year low, reaching EURHUF 396-397 during the day. This time around, the immediate cause appears to be a new decision by the European Parliament's legal committee to sue the European Commission on ...

Lira will meet with party leaders to discuss the agenda, the president of Petrobras met with Lula to discuss dividends, and Lula has called for price reductions for electricity and food
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Mar 2024

The president of the House, Arthur Lira, meets with party leaders today to discuss the week's agenda. Two themes may be on the agenda: bills on energy transition and fuel of the future. Yesterday, the president of Petrobras, Jean Paul Prates, had a meeting with President Lula, the Minister of Fin...

Pension fund withdrawal likely
PERU · In Brief · 11 Mar 2024 · 1 response

Congress' Economic, Banking, Finance and Financial Intelligence Commission has drafted a new law authorizing a new withdrawal from workers' pension funds. It proposes that those workers that had not been contributors until December 31st, 2023, can withdraw up to 4 Unidades Impositivas Tributarias...

Public sector cash flow and the IMF Article IV Report update
PANAMA · Report · 11 Mar 2024

In 2024, the public sector faces a projected 3.9% decline in total revenues due to the absence of significant one-time occurrences from the previous year, while primary expenditures are expected to rise by 8.6%. This increase is primarily driven by growth in current expenditure, particularly payr...

Lula's challenges and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2024

The government may submit a new bill to Congress on the Perse program and payroll tax relief for municipalities. The STJ should adjudicate the inclusion of energy tariffs in the calculation of the ICMS. Mauro Vieira talks about the government's foreign policy. This week's Talking Points: ...

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