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The future of Minera Panama's operation lies in the hands of the Supreme Court of Justice
PANAMA · Report · 20 Nov 2023 · 3 responses

President Cortizo announced on Thursday that Minera Panama had made a “restricted payment” of US 562.8 MM to the government, around 75% of the US 750 MM that was expected for this fiscal year. If the Supreme Court declares sometime within the next few weeks that the now infamous Law 406 (deemed a...

Congress may complete the vote on the LDO, today is the deadline to submit edits to the offshore funds bill, and the STF may adjudicate the ICMS tax rate case on Thursday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Nov 2023

Congress may complete the vote on the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO). Deputy Danilo Forte (União Brasil-CE), rapporteur of the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO), should submit his final report today, November 20, or tomorrow, November 21 at the Joint Budget Committee (CMO). Today is the deadline for prese...

Pithy data commentary-November 17, 2023
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Nov 2023

We comment on the key data and news events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Oct inflation is still around zero, but set to accelerate in the coming months Armenia: Yield curve normalizes after becoming inverted in late Oct on risks of another Azerbaijan invasion Armenia: Remittance...

Floods and deaths due to heavy rains in the Dominican Republic
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 Nov 2023

At least 21 people have died as a result of heavy rains that have impacted the territory of the Dominican Republic since last Saturday, November 18, although the number could reach 30. In Santo Domingo, a historical record of 431 millimeters of rain in 24 hours was verified. Although there is not...

Economic activity accelerates in September
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 20 Nov 2023

Economic activity growth in September exceeded 3% y/y, for the first time in 2023. But the Central Bank, aiming to ensure that months of reduced economic growth have been left behind, has further eased monetary policy. In October a new $0.7 billion quick liquidity facility was created, and on Oct...

The shekel continues to appreciate sharply
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Nov 2023

1. The shekel continued to appreciate sharply last week, fueling expectations for a possible rate cut next week. 2. Inflation moderated in October, especially housing rental prices and services, a trend that is likely to continue. 3. Real-time data point to an increase in private consumptio...

The shekel continues to appreciate sharply
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Nov 2023

Geopolitics: Israel’s ground operation into Gaza continues, as do sporadic missile fire into Israel from Gaza, but at a much slower pace. The Israeli army is consolidating its control on northern Gaza and is proceeded slowly to deal with the massive tunnel network. Sporadic low-level fighting wit...

Winter is coming, but what kind?
TURKEY · Report · 19 Nov 2023 · 1 response

Last week’s main topic was the infighting in the high judiciary, which has blown over in a couple of days, without anyone grasping what it was all about. This week witnessed President Erdogan’s return to “wolf warrior” diplomacy, sniping at Israel relentlessly and managing to offend his hosts in ...

Russia ships grain to Africa for free
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Nov 2023

On November 17 Moscow announced the shipments had been dispatched bound for Somalia and Burkina Faso. They are due to arrive by the end of November 2023. Two ships were sent and they each contained 25,000 tons. In July 2023 Putin said Russia would give 200,000 tons of grain to six African nations...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi hosts Gaza summit, Bahrain’s non-VAT revenue disappoints, Dubai orders 140 planes
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Nov 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC and the IEA continued to diverge sharply on 2024 oil demand projections, by 1.4m b/d. * The Arab-Islamic summit on Gaza in Riyadh produced strong rhetoric but no substantive actions. * Iran has indicated that it does...

Finland closes 4 of its 6 border crossings to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2023

On November 16 Finland announced it will close the border crossings with Russia on November 17 at midnight. The aim of keeping 2 border crossings open is to permit asylum seekers to enter. The border is over 1,000 km long.  In November 2023 there was a huge influx of people crossing the border in...

Webinar replay - Brazil 2024 Macro Outlook
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Nov 2023

How effective will Brazil's fiscal framework be? What impact will the country's monetary policy have on the interest rate by the end of the easing cycle? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on Brazil's macro outlook for 2024.

Deputy Forte announced that the zero-deficit fiscal target will be maintained, Thursday is the deadline for Lula to sanction or veto the payroll tax exemption bill, and the STF may adjudicate the ICMS tax rate case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Nov 2023

The rapporteur of the bill that deals with the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO), Deputy Danilo Forte (União Brasil-CE), announced yesterday, after a meeting with the government, that the target for next year will be a zero deficit, as defended by the economic team. This is a victory for the Minister o...

Webinar replay - Geoeconomic reshuffling in the South Caucasus
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 17 Nov 2023

How has the 3rd Karabakh war has reshuffled the deck of winners and losers in the region? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar discussing how sustainable the new regional relationships are in the short-to-medium term as individual economies adapt to the new geoeconomic real...

Our inflation outlook hinges on a GL 44 renewal in April - amended
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Nov 2023

We are re-sending this report, amended with small changes to Tables 2-9 in the Statistical Annex that brought our inflation forecast to 204% from our previous 202%. In October, inflation in Venezuela slowed to 5.7 percent in an interruption of its sustained upward trend seen in May–September. ...

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