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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 May 2024

The ruble appreciated in the past two weeks from USD/RUB 94 to almost USD/RUB 91. We suppose that there were two main reasons for such dynamics. Firstly, efforts of the Russian exporters to repatriate export earnings to Russia appeared relatively successful. The settlement between the Russian com...

Israeli institutions sold FX in Q1 as global markets pushed higher
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 May 2024

In Q1, Israeli institutional investors sold net $5.3 billion, following purchases of a similar volume in Q4. Sales in the first quarter derived mainly from sharp increases in global capital markets and not really due to optimism about the geopolitical environment. As of February, the rate of expo...

On campaign financing limits and an eventual impeachment of the president
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 08 May 2024 · 2 responses

Norms regulating campaign financing are simple and strict in Colombia. On May 8th, the National Electoral Council (NEC) is considering a draft ruling indicating that, in the 2022 presidential elections, Gustavo Petro’s campaign surpassed the financing limits. We follow the analysis of the renowne...

Pacheco enacted the Legislative Decree that recognizes the state of emergency in RS, new polls on government ratings were published, and the Copom should announce the new basic interest rate today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 May 2024

Last night, the president of the National Congress, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), enacted the Legislative Decree Bill that recognizes a state of public emergency in Rio Grande do Sul (RS) until December 31. Yesterday, another poll on the government’s ratings was published—the CNT/MDA poll. As other i...

Industrial output returned to a downward trend in March
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 May 2024

Moving in a direction opposite to retail sales, industrial output fell by 3% mom, 2.9% yoy (volume terms, sda basis) in March. Here is the fixed-base chart (Dec 2010 = 100, KSH data): The recent downtrend of the industrial sector appears to reflect Europe's industrial weakness, as the same Hungar...

Relations between G7 and Russia at their worst
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 May 2024

On May 6 the ambassador was spoken to in the Russian Foreign Ministry because of statements made by their governments. London maintains that its ambassador was not summoned but attended an ordinary diplomatic meeting. The British Foreign Secretary said that it did not object to Ukraine's using Br...

Putin inaugurated for 5th term
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 May 2024

On May 7 his new presidential term began with his being sworn in at St George's Hall in the Kremlin by the President of the Constitutional Court. This term will last until 2030. He is allowed another term after that if he wins it, and that would take him to 2036, when he will be 83. In his oratio...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Has Georgian Dream shot itself in the foot by pressing on with the Transparency Law?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 May 2024

While Georgia is enjoying a week-long Easter holiday, political developments in the country resemble nothing of a holiday mood. The unexpected decision by Georgian Dream to re-introduce the controversial "Foreign Agents" bill (dubbed the "Russian Law" by the opposition and global media) has set i...

Good news on retail trade and VAT revenue
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 May 2024

Retail trade grew by 2% mom, 3.6% yoy (volume terms, sda basis) in March, meaning consumer demand is indeed picking up at last. Here is the fixed-base chart (volume terms, December 2010 = 100), and then the graph on percentage yoy changes (with real wage growth also presented) a bit further below...

The House approved Lula’s bill on the floods in RS, the payroll tax relief issue continues to be discussed, and the CCJ is expected to vote on the bill that resumes the mandatory insurance policy for vehicles
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 May 2024

Congress and the Government are currently negotiating a series of important matters. The priority right now is the flood in Rio Grande do Sul (RS). Last night, the House approved the proposal submitted by President Lula that decrees a state of public emergency in Rio Grande do Sul until the end o...

Economics: Pemex crude exports fall as company and public finances continue to deteriorate
MEXICO · Report · 06 May 2024

Official information regarding the evolution of Petróleos Mexicanos' financial and operating situation, as well as the performance of public finances as of the first quarter of 2024 was released in the last few days. Pemex registered a relative improvement between January and March in some of its...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 May 2024

OVERVIEW ABUNDANCE OF ALERTS After a month of exhausting and ultimately futile friction with Congress, a melancholic manifestation summoned for Worker’s Day was added to an extensive list of alerts that President Lula has been receiving about the efficacy – and the costs – of his governing st...

Beneath the diplomatic stand-off between the Philippines and China
PHILIPPINES · Report · 06 May 2024

This report adds new information about the economic implications of the China-Philippines maritime conflict to our previously published report "Diplomatic stand-off between the Philippines and China". It is best to consider that since the dispute is diplomatic, the solution should remain diplo...

An intense week in the Legislature and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 May 2024

This will be a busy week in Brasilia. Arthur Lira may announce the analysis of Tax Reform regulations. In the Senate, the bill that issues R$15.4 billion in credit for the government may be put to a vote. Congress meets to analyze presidential vetoes. The STF resumes adjudication of the state-own...

Politics: Impact of the second presidential debate and a troubling legislative agenda
MEXICO · Report · 06 May 2024

The second of three presidential candidates’ debates was held on April 28. Unlike the first event on April 7, in which Xóchitl Gálvez was widely seen as having squandered a crucial opportunity to eat into Claudia Sheinbaum’s lead, this time the opposition coalition nominee appeared better prepare...

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