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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Putin in Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2023

On November 9 Putin met his Kazakh counterpart in Astana. President Tokayev said that the relationship between the two former Soviet states has a bright future. The chemistry between the two seemed to be surprisingly good. This is only Putin's third trip abroad since the Ukraine War began. In 202...

European Commission recommends Ukraine and Moldova for EU membership
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2023

On November 8 the President of the European Commission said that the two countries should be admitted to the EU. Ursula von der Leyen noted that both had made tangible progress towards meeting the EU's requirements in only a few months. The Commission suggested introducing a negotiating framework...

Ukraine receiving more US arms
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Nov 2023

On November 7 Zelensky said that his country had deployed NASAMS air defense systems. These are surface-to-air missiles for short-to-medium range. The US said NASMAS have a 100% success rate in stopping Russian missiles. Ukraine anticipates a Russian air assault on the energy infrastructure. This...

The fiscal deficit expands rapidly
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Nov 2023

The fiscal deficit expanded rapidly to 2.6% GDP in the last 12 months through October from 1.5% one month ago. The actual deficit in October reached 22.9bn ILS compare to 3.1bn in Oct 22. Expenditure of ministries expanded by 12.3% y/y, mostly due to higher defense spending. Tax revenues declined...

The CCJ approved Senator Braga’s report on Tax Reform, Haddad may have a meeting with party leaders today to discuss the ICMS subsidy, and the ADI on the FGTS correction is on the STF’s agenda today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Nov 2023

Yesterday, November 7, the Senate Constitution and Justice Committee approved Senator Eduardo Braga's report on Tax Reform. The plenary also approved, by 48 to 24, a request for a special schedule. Today, November 8, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, may have a meeting with party leaders ...

New KSH data reflects the continuation of a genuinely weak economy in September
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2023

KSH has just released four new reports with monthly data. Three of these, the ones on industry, retail sales and housing construction, are quite negative, not at all pointing to any rapid recovery of domestic supply and demand. The fourth one, on guest turnover at hotels, is actually quite positi...

Transition government: The political and economic landscape takes shape
ECUADOR · Report · 07 Nov 2023

President Daniel Noboa surprised everyone in New York with two statements aimed at convincing the markets and multilaterals of the need to support Ecuador with financing for its fiscal and social needs during the period of his mandate. However, these two statements could work in opposite directio...

COSTA RICA: Positive economic news
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 07 Nov 2023

The last few weeks have been marked by positive news for Costa Rica's economy. First, the EU recently removed the country from the tax haven blacklist as a result of the amendments approved by the Legislative Assembly to the foreign exemption regime. This is a major accomplishment because it remo...

Moldovan municipal elections are mixed result for pro-Western government
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Nov 2023

On November 6 the results came in. The mayor of the capital was re-elected. His National Alternative Movement (MAN) is said to be pro-Moscow. The Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) is the ruling party. PAS wants the country to join the EU. PAS won 19 out of the 32 counties in the country. Presi...

The CCJ may vote on Senator Braga’s report on Tax Reform today, the Joint Budget Committee may vote on Deputy Forte’s preliminary report, and Lira and Pacheco said the government should continue to pursue the zero-deficit target
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Nov 2023

Today, November 7, the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) of the Senate may vote on Senator Eduardo Braga's (MDB-AM) report on the Tax Reform Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). Also today, the Joint Budget Committee may vote on the preliminary report of Deputy Danilo Forte (União Bras...

Economics: GDP outperforms in 3Q even as evidence grows of slowing ahead that could be aggravated by the toll Hurricane Otis is taking
MEXICO · Report · 07 Nov 2023

Mexico’s economy expanded in the third quarter an annual 3.3% according to Inegi’s preliminary calculations. That headline result was better than expected but marked a slowing compared to the 3.7% recorded through the first half of the year and pointed toward the likelihood of further slowing in ...

Politics: Hurricane Otis’s devastation has only just begun as AMLO’s typical unipersonal response stymies reconstruction efforts
MEXICO · Report · 06 Nov 2023

When Hurricane Otis delivered a devastating blow to the state of Guerrero, the second poorest in the country, no one from any level of government or emergency services was anywhere to be found even as civil society sought to fill the void, backed by the solidarity of philanthropic foundations and...

Kazakhstan macro: A vicious circle not yet broken
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 06 Nov 2023

The excessively strong tenge was one of the main reasons for the widening republican budget deficit in 9M23. Another reason for the wider deficit was the amended expenditures—along with the assumption that the revenue would grow as much as the additional spending. As the latter has not yet happen...

Public policy anchors inflation and growth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Nov 2023

What macro data are to be released? The Philippine Statistics Authority is scheduled to release the actual October 2023 inflation, both headline and core, tomorrow November 7. As we write this In Brief in Rome, we are guided by the BSP’s own press statement last October 26 after its off-cycle mee...

The fiscal conflict and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Nov 2023

In the Senate, the highlight is the vote on Tax Reform. Discussions continue around the fiscal target for 2024. On Tuesday, the Joint Budget Committee votes on the preliminary report on the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO). Appointments to the Central Bank (BC) may be sent to the Senate. The STF may a...

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