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The Lula of 2003 and the Lula Of 2023: From Pragmatism to Populism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Nov 2023

In this report, we compare the objectives and the motivations – economic and political – underpinning the fiscal policy in two Lula administrations. The first (Lula 1), starting in 2003, was marked by an acute crisis of confidence, prompting Lula to be temporarily pragmatic, unconditionally accep...

German Foreign Minister visits Armenia and Azerbaijan on peace mission
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Nov 2023

On November 4 and 5 Annalena Baerbock visited the two countries. She is trying to prevent the conflict between the two Caucasian countries from breaking out anew. The European Union is trying to establish itself as a force in the region. Georgia was rejected for EU candidate membership in 2022 bu...

The CCJ should vote on Senator Braga’s report on Tax Reform tomorrow, the Joint Budget Committee should vote on Deputy Forte’s preliminary report, and the STF should resume analysis of the FGTS ADI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Nov 2023

On Tuesday, November 7, the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) of the Senate may vote on Senator Eduardo Braga's (MDB-AM) report on the Tax Reform Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). The objective is to vote on the text on Wednesday and Thursday in the plenary. Also on Tuesday, Novembe...

A widening fiscal deficit amid the conflict will require additional (but manageable) bond issuance
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Nov 2023

1. The shekel appreciated sharply last week as a result of both strong equity markets abroad and growing expectations that the war will be limited to Gaza. 2. Credit card purchases continue to expand modestly, but private consumption remains far below pre-war levels. 3. We expect a fiscal d...

A widening fiscal deficit will require additional (but manageable) bond issuance
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Nov 2023

Geopolitics: Israel’s ground operation into Gaza continues, as do sporadic missile fire into Israel from Hamas. There is much fog regarding the war, Israel has encircled Gaza city, a major Hamas stronghold including underground tunnels. International pressure for a cease-fire is mounting as civil...

Our election coverage kicks off
TURKEY · Report · 05 Nov 2023

In a development that may improve CHP’s chances of keeping big-city municipalities in the March 2024 local elections, delegates threw out incumbent Kemal Kilicdaroglu to crown “change” candidate Ozgur Ozel. The politics author thus initiates his local election coverage, tentatively concluding ...

Kazakhstan bans fuel exports to Tajikistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Nov 2023

On October 20 Kazakhstan made the move saying it needs fuel for itself. The bank covers liquefied petroleum gas, propane and butane. The ban is to last until 2026. A fuel price hike in Kazakhstan in January 2022 caused massive protests and riots that left over 200 dead. Therefore the government i...

US sanctions on countries accused of supplying Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2023

On November 3 the US said it was sanctioning individuals and entities whom it believes are enabling Russia to prosecute its war in Ukraine. The people and entities are from the United Arab Emirates, China and Turkey. Russia is sourcing technology and equipment for its armed forces from abroad. Ru...

EU Commission's evaluation of Hungary's judicial reform is delayed further by new questions
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Nov 2023

Following a letter with questions sent out on September 26, which the government answered on October 19, the EU Commission sent another letter with new questions regarding 'certain elements' of Hungary's judicial reforms on November 1, a Commission spokesman told the Hungarian press the other day...

Kazakhstan hosts Turkic Summit
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2023

On November 3 the members of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) met in Astana. It marked the 10th anniversary of the OTS. The presidents of its members attended.  The Kazakh president stated the 8 pillars for his chairmanship of the OTS in 2024. He seeks deeper cooperation. There is talk of ...

Senior Ukrainian general says war is a stalemate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2023

On November 1 Valery Zaluzhny said in an article in The Economist that neither side can make a breakthrough unless they get new technology. He tacitly admitted that the counter-offensive had failed. Zaluzhny is asking for long term aid. He says a war of attrition favors Russia, which outnumbers U...

No one falls from grace halfway
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Nov 2023

In Latin American national elections today, the opposition has an 80% chance of winning, according to a recent statistical analysis. After the 2015 commodities crisis, and especially after the COVID pandemic, opposition parties won almost four of every five elections in the region. We are seeing ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi non-oil growth slowed in Q3, UAE non-oil growth strong in Q2, Bahrain reconsiders relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia is the sole bidder for World Cup
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Nov 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Russian and Iranian oil production/exports rose in October. * The ground phase of the Gaza war began, and concerns grew about civilian casualties and displacement. * Qatar mediated to enable foreign nationals to leave Gaz...

Headline better than expected, thanks to softer food inflation
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2023

Consumer prices rose by a slower than expected 3.4%, m/m, in October, compared with (including ours) forecasts of around 4%, with our forecast error largely stemming from lower food inflation. Annual CPI-inflation has thus remained broadly unchanged from a month ago, standing at 61.4%, slightly l...

The goal is to vote on Tax Reform in the Senate by the end of November, the payroll tax bill will be sent to Lula for approval, and the STF may resume analysis of the FGTS case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Nov 2023

In the Senate, the focus is on Tax Reform. In a meeting with the Ministry of Finance, the rapporteur, Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM), said that he is making small changes to his text. Although there may be a delay in this schedule, the vote is expected to be completed in the Senate in November. T...

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