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The House approved the bill that deals with the taxation of offshore and exclusive funds, Senator Braga presented his report on Tax Reform, and the Senate approved the payroll tax exemption bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Oct 2023

The House approved the bill that deals with the taxation of offshore and exclusive funds. The text will now go to the Senate for further analysis. This is an important victory for Finance Minister Fernando Haddad. Yesterday, another topic on the government's priority agenda made progress. Senator...

NBU slashes prime rate by 4 ppt to 16%, keeps "working" rates steady
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

Today, on October 26th, the NBU Board made an unexpected decision, slashing the prime rate by 4 ppt to 16%, effective from October 27th. While the market did anticipate a rate cut, analysts had predicted a more modest 2 ppt reduction. Despite the significant cut in the prime rate, the NBU essenti...

Trade deficit declines sharply
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

September witnessed a sharp reduction in the headline trade deficit to 1.5bn from 3.2bn in both August 23 and September 2022. Industrial exports are up 8% m/m in October, while imports declined: consumer imports by 3.5% (sa), imports of raw materials by 1.4%, and imports of investment goods by 6....

Uzbekistan: Central Bank keeps rates unchanged, doubles down on hawkish message
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate unchanged at 14.0 percent. This is the fifth consecutive decision to keep the policy rate at this level since the last 100bpt cut in Mar 2023. After raising the refinancing rate by 300bpts to 17.0 percent in Mar 2022 due to elevated geopolitical...

Expect a BSP preemptive move...
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

Issue: Monetary policy does not have to act because Philippines inflation is supply driven We are bothered by the latest statement of one of the economic managers of the Philippine government, National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan. He was quoted in the bro...

Russian Federal Council votes to end nuclear test ban treaty
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Oct 2023

On October 25 the Federal Council made the decision unanimously. The lower house of Parliament already voted for the same thing on October 20. It is almost certain that Putin will sign off on this decision. Russia will withdraw from the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). CTBT outlaws nuclear e...

Senator Braga will discuss his report on Tax Reform today, the Senate will vote on the payroll tax relief bill, and the House will vote on the bill that deals with the taxation of offshore and exclusive funds
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Oct 2023

Today, Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM) holds a press conference to present the general lines of his report on Tax Reform. The text will be formally presented today at the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). In the Senate plenary, the bill that deals with payroll tax relief will be put to a v...

Georgia: Central bank keeps rates unchanged amid rising geopolitical risks
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 25 Oct 2023

The National Bank of Georgia kept the refinancing rate at 10.0 percent citing newly emerging geopolitical risks. The NBG transitioned to an easing mode in May and cut the policy rates from the peak of 11 percent in three steps (50bpts in May and twice by 25bpts in Jul and Sep). While the accompan...

Turkish parliament to ratify Sweden’s NATO accession, but why?
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Oct 2023

I’d given up on positive developments in Turkey’s relations with US and NATO, because on 21 October President Erdogan flatly refused to present the legislation needed to ratify Swedish accession, on account of American disrespect for his various requests, Quran burning incidents and the refusal b...

An opportunity
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Oct 2023 · 1 response

A new cycle in the negotiations aimed at resolving the political crisis in Venezuela began on October 17, 2023. Beyond the agreement on electoral conditions, essential for the opposition, and oil sanctions relief opening additional income opportunities for the government for at least six mont...

The House may vote on the offshore and exclusive funds bill, Senator Braga should submit his report on Tax Reform today, and the CAE may vote on the payroll tax relief bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Oct 2023

The House will try to vote on the bill that deals with the taxation of offshore and exclusive funds. The bill is part of the government's priorities to increase revenue next year. Minister Alexandre Padilha said that another priority for the government is Tax Reform. Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM...

Boluarte fights to boost her popularity; pension reform proposal advances; real GDP to fall 0.5% in 2023, then rebound 1.7% in 2024
PERU · Report · 24 Oct 2023 · 1 response

We discuss three key topics in this report. First, we assess the attempt by President Dina Boluarte to boost her public popularity, and discuss the deinstitutionalization of Peruvian society, with reference to recent opinion polls. Next we examine Congress’s proposal to allow workers to further w...

MNB base rate down 75 bps to 12.25% today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Oct 2023

Neither us, expecting 12%, nor the median analyst expectation of 12.5% have proven to be right. The reduction of the monthly pace of the sterilisation rate cut seems to be meant to indicate that: - for the next few months, the yoy inflation rate will still very likely fall following a steep trend...

Economics: New stimulus measures for export-oriented companies could fall short of the need to more fully exploit nearshoring
MEXICO · Report · 24 Oct 2023

The Federal Government published a decree on October 11 awarding fiscal stimulus to 10 key sectors of the country’s export industry, consisting of immediate deductions of investments in new fixed assets during the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. This measure seeks to promote investment and...

MIF plot thickens
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Oct 2023

It’s not really a social blunder, that economic faux pas with enormous political fallout called the Maharlika Investment Fund (MIF) of the Philippines. It’s an economic faux pas because the Philippine authorities rammed through Congress the bill creating the Philippines’ first ever investment fun...

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