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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Aug 22 -
Brazil Economics databank Aug 18
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Aug 14
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Philippines databank Aug 6
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Aug 14
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South Africa databank Aug 21
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Aug 21
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT: BRAZIL...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The CNI defended the approval of the bill that taxes international purchases, mayors continue to pressure for payroll tax relief, and Lira said the House should approve Rio Grande do Sul’s federal debt relief as soon as possible
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 May 2024
Yesterday, the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) defended the approval of the bill that provides for the end of tax exemptions on international purchases of up to US$50. This measure was included in the bill that creates the Green Mobility and Innovation Program (Mover) that is being analy...
Economics: An analysis of the main economic proposals put forward by the two leading presidential candidates
MEXICO · Report · 14 May 2024
The two leading presidential candidates on the ballot this June 2, Claudia Sheinbaum for Morena and Xóchitl Gálvez for the Broad Front for Mexico, have raised numerous economic proposals, both in the platforms they presented at the beginning of the campaign, as well as in multiple events and inte...
The risk of opportunism and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2024
The Ministry of Finance negotiates with mayors on the payroll tax relief issue. The STF may ratify the agreement signed last week with the 17 sectors of the economy benefiting from the exemption. In the market, the minutes of the Copom meeting that reduced the interest rate to 10.50% should be pu...
Scope and Consequences of the Dissent in the COPOM
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 May 2024
The statement issued after the last COPOM meeting displayed a hawkish tone in evaluating both the international and domestic scenarios, recognizing that the dynamism of activity and the labor market in Brazil is stronger than expected. In addition to this, the members unanimously stated that the ...
Politics: Excesses of power in electoral times as AMLO targets widow who dared to criticize his government
MEXICO · Report · 13 May 2024
It has long been noted that President López Obrador's personal style of governing is characterized by an intolerance of criticism and a highly inflated sense of his historical importance. As we near the end of his administration, more and more balance sheets of his government have begun to appear...
Russian macro: GDP can grow above 4% in 2024 if PM’s 1Q24 number is correct
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 13 May 2024
On May 12, the recently re-appointed PM Mr. Mishustin, while speaking in the Duma, announced that in 1Q24, the country’s GDP grew by 5.4% y-o-y. The number came from the latest Economics Ministry publication. Interestingly, the Ministry upgraded its 2024 growth forecast at the end of April to 2.8...
The government reached an agreement on payroll tax relief, the Federal Government is expected to announce a debt renegotiation plan for Rio de Grande do Sul, and Congress is preparing for the Working Groups on Tax Reform regulation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2024
Last week, the government reached an agreement on payroll tax relief for 17 sectors of the economy. Because the matter has gone to court, it needs to be approved by the Supreme Federal Court (STF). Regarding the state of public emergency in Rio de Grande do Sul (RS), the Federal Government is exp...
Russian Defense Minister replaced
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 May 2024
On May 12 it was announced that Sergei Shoigu has been removed as Defense Minister and has been appointed the Secretary of the Security Committee instead. Because of his new post it is clear that Shoigu is not disgraced. However, his new post is seen as a non-job. There have been significant prob...
Towards a new normal in politics?
TURKEY · Report · 12 May 2024
The stunning defeat of Messrs. Erdogan and Bahceli in municipal elections upset the political equilibrium. All actors, led by Erdogan, are scrambling to reposition to deal with the new reality. It is possible for the quest for a new equilibrium to result in a more normal, democratic and less xeno...
Armenia rocked by protests against ceding land to Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 May 2024
On May 11 peace talks between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia ended in Kazakhstan. The talks did not result in a treaty and both parties say they have not agreed on certain points.In Armenia there have been large scale demonstrations against handing over territory to Azerbaijan. T...
Ukraine to receive more arms
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 May 2024
On May 10 the US said it will give Ukraine another USD 400 million worth of military aid in addition to the USD 60 billion package passed in April 2024. Zelensky stated that Ukraine faces a very hard fight in the east. Russia regularly brags of taking villages however, it is clear that Russia is ...
Kazakhstan keeps utilizing budgeted transfers well ahead of schedule implying that tax revenues were poor in April
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 May 2024
The Ministry of Finance reported that in 4M24, the National Fund grew from $63.7 bln as of January 1, 2024, to $64.9 bln as of May 1. In reality, it doesn’t mean that the authorities continued to build up international reserves, as in KZT terms, the fund shrank over the same period from KZT29.115...
PM of Russia reappointed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 May 2024
On May 10, as we predicted, Mikhail Mishustin was given his job back by Putin. The State Duma voted for him with an overwhelming majority in favor, none against but there were some abstentions. Mishustin had to stand down as President Putin began his 5th term. Putin prizes loyalty above all else....
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi Q1 deficit, UAE trade talks with New Zealand, Israel assaults Rafah and bans Al Jazeera
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 May 2024 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ for the first time published a compensation plan for countries exceeding their quotas. * Israel began its Rafah assault, despite US opposition, after rejecting a Hamas ceasefire proposal. * Israel banned Qatari news...
A political victory amidst the darkness
ECUADOR · Report · 10 May 2024
The past referendum and public consultation gave President Daniel Noboa a victory on nine out of the 11 questions proposed. This was a setback for the Correistas, who were campaigning for a “no” vote on all the questions. The winning questions all concerned crime control measures, while the two r...