GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

With the resumption of activity in the Judiciary and the Legislature, Brasilia is expected to have a busy month. The government’s initial goal is to ensure the approval of the 2025 Budget. President Lula is expected to submit two important proposals to Congress as part of a strategy to boost the ...

A not so auspicious start into 2025

TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2025

Consumer prices rose by 5%, m/m, in January, significantly above the consensus forecast of about 4.3%. But thanks to a strong base effect from last January, the 12-month rate nevertheless fell further to 42.1%, from 44.4% in December. Monthly domestic PPI inflation was also relatively elevated, p...

Amid rising political tensions, economy holding up – for now

TURKEY · Report · 02 Feb 2025

The Erdogan-Bahceli regime launched a new crackdown, which spares no victims. These range from the CEO of a casting agency to party leaders. The politics author fails to find an overarching theme that ties the victims together, but if silencing every voice that opposes it will be the modus operan...

Perú: Cabinet Reshuffle

PERU · In Brief · 01 Feb 2025 · 1 response

Last night, President Boluarte reshuffled her Cabinet and changed three ministers: Minister of Finance, José Arista; Minister of Social Inclusion, Julio Demartini; and Women and Vulnerable Population, Teresa Hernández. For weeks have been rumors of a reshuffle, and most anticipated that Interior ...

Essential CIS Politics: February 2025

CIS POLITICS · Report · 31 Jan 2025

- Russia signs strategic partnership with Iran, as rumors of an Opec-style gas cartel become more realistic. - Trump scales up threats of sanctions and tariffs if peace negotiations do not progress. - Armenia begins the EU accession process. - Lukashenko wins a 7th term in ...

GULF WEEKLY: Strong Q4 Saudi GDP, Dubai-AD rail link, Oman income tax debated, Trump proposes Gaza relocation

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Jan 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil prices declined for a second week, but the premium of Gulf crude over Brent is at a record $2. * Rystad forecasts the share of renewables in GCC electricity to surge from 3% to 70% by 2050. * The Saudi Q4 flash GDP re...

The Central Bank Pauses the Monetary Policy Interest Rate Reduction Cycle

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 31 Jan 2025

At its monetary policy meeting in January 2025, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) decided to maintain its monetary policy interest rate (MPR) at 5.75% per annum. Similarly, the rate for the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) remains at 6.25% per annum, while the ...

Kazakhstan macro: government considering reform agenda amid overspending and fiscal difficulties

KAZAKHSTAN · Forecast · 31 Jan 2025 · 1 response

The Kazakh Ministry of Finance recently released the budgetary statistics for full-year 2024. The figures didn’t look impressive, either for the republican budget or the National Fund, because their revenues strongly depend on the exchange rate. Local budgets, however, performed very well because...

Lula gave an interview yesterday, the elections for the presidencies of the House and Senate will be held tomorrow, and Congress will resume activity next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Jan 2025

President Lula gave a lengthy interview to journalists yesterday afternoon. He said he intends to make these meetings more frequent. One of the questions he was asked was about the possibility of new fiscal measures. Lula said that nothing is currently on the radar. This Saturday, elections will...

Jan CCA Highlights: Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia keep rates unchanged, Georgia's 2024 GDP soars to 9.5%, FX reserves reach record-high level in Uzbekistan

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 31 Jan 2025

We discuss key macro and political events in the CCA during Jan: Armenia: Armenia plans to issue new Eurobonds in 2025 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator rises by 4.7% YoY in Dec Armenia: 2025 public debt payments to exceed US$2.4bn Armenia: CPI increases to 1.5% YoY in Dec Armenia: FX re...

Webinar replay and slide presentation: Poland - Economic trends, political shifts, and the path forward

POLAND · Report · 31 Jan 2025

As part of the GlobalSource Partners' Poland research service launch, we invite you to listen to the replay of a webinar on the country's outlook featuring Jan Hagemejer, one of the world’s leading authorities on Poland’s macroeconomics, international trade and structural issues. What drives ...

Lula met with representatives from the real estate sector, the Planalto Palace is tackling food prices, and the Copom will meet today to decide on the benchmark interest rate

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jan 2025

Yesterday, representatives from the real estate sector met with President Lula and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad. The sector presented a list of concerns, including the FGTS birthday withdrawal, the risk of taxation on Real Estate Investment Funds, and issues regarding the Minha Casa, Minha Vi...

A pension deal? Political wrinkles and potential economic impact

CHILE · Report · 28 Jan 2025

The summer break is well underway in Chile. And by the time things gear up again in March, the presidential and congressional election campaigns will be as well. Primaries, to be held at the end of June, are now less than six months away. Recall that presidential and congressional elections will ...

The Monetary Council sent out an expressly hawkish message today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Jan 2025

Just as expected, the Council took no action regarding the MNB 6.5% base rate at today's regular monthly rate-setting meeting. So, analysts, who uniformly expected a hold decision this time, have been vindicated. Until this point, this is no really interesting story, but the messages sent out by ...

Trump’s opening remarks indicate carrot-and-stick approach towards Russia-Ukraine negotiations

CIS POLITICS · Report · 28 Jan 2025

• Trump threatens Russia and “participating countries” with more sanctions, tariffs and taxes if no peace deal is reached soon. • Russia’s oil revenues will be targeted by Trump—Western sanctions against the shadow fleet are increasing costs, stalling China and India’s purchases of Russian oil...