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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Essential CIS Politics: October 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2023

* Azerbaijan ousts Armenia, taking control of Nagorno-Karabakh. * Putin met the leaders of Turkey and North Korea, proving Russia is not isolated. * Russian regional elections were easily won by the main pro-Putin party amid claims of widespread rigging. * Ukraine claims to...

The monetary policy interest rate remains at 7.50% annually
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 02 Oct 2023

On September 29, 2023, the Central Bank decided to keep the monetary policy interest rate unchanged: 7.50% annually. The permanent liquidity expansion facility rate and the interest-bearing deposit rate also remain unchanged at 8.0% and 6.25% annually, respectively.

The House may vote on the bill that deals with offshore taxation this week, the Senate Environment Committee may vote on the new carbon credit market, and the Senate will vote on the Desenrola bill today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2023

This week, the House is expected to vote on the bill (PL) that deals with the taxation of financial investments abroad made through companies and funds known as “offshores” (PL nº 4,173/23). The offshore PL has an urgent status and will begin to block the House agenda starting on October 14. The ...

Economic indicators remain mixed
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Oct 2023

1. The labor market continues to tighten, with unemployment down sharply. 2. August witnessed an improvement in private consumption growth. 3. Other indicators point to slowing growth, both in service and manufacturing exports. 4. Without an upward inflation surprise or sharp shekel...

Russian police short of officers
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Oct 2023

The Russian police number 900,000. Per capita it is one of the largest in the world. It has 630 per 100,000 people, making Russia one of the most policed countries. The center of Moscow is perhaps the most policed place in the world. But that means that remote areas have very few officers. In Aug...

Cyclical respites, secular concerns
TURKEY · Report · 01 Oct 2023

In this very brief econ-only Weekly, we take a quick look at last week’s data releases and review the latest deposit and reserve developments. The bottom line is that there is little sign of rebalancing in the economy according to data through August, as we see it, while reserves are being helped...

Taking stock: MNB's financial results for H1 2023 look quite bad indeed
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Oct 2023

The MNB has come forward with its H1 2023 financial report. It says the MNB had a 6-month loss of HUF999bn, mainly because of very high interest expenditure, paid primarily to domestic banks as the cost of monetary stabilisation. However, its equity stock fell by HUF1767bn in H1, to HUF1512bn or ...

Germany and US try to pull Central Asia away from Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Oct 2023

On September 20 Biden met with the presidents of the 5 Central Asian nations. They were in New York for the UN General Assembly. The US is keen for the five to develop a regional identity that excludes Russia. This is happening anyway but the Ukraine War has accelerated it. On September 29 the Ge...

UK and Russia sanction each others' individuals
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Sep 2023

On September 29 London sanctioned 12 Russian officials over elections held in occupied Ukraine. The UK said the elections were fraudulent. The United Kingdom has sanctioned 1,600 Russian since the war began. Those sanctioned cannot visit the UK and have had their assets frozen. The EU and US are ...

A macro review
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Sep 2023 · 1 response

With yesterday's publication of the Q2 balance of payments, we quickly review the quarterly macro indicators that were published towards the end of September. For this reason, we will momentarily put politics aside and focus on economic performance, but not without failing to remember that this S...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch upgrades Oman, Dubai partly repays 2009 bailout, GCC-Pakistan FTA inked, Bahrainis killed on Saudi-Yemen border
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Sep 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The GCC inked its first FTA since 2009, with Pakistan. Others are pending with the UK, EU and China. * The Kuwait-Iraq maritime border spat prevented a meeting of GCC foreign ministers with Iraq and Iran at the UN. * Bahrai...

Petro’s make-or-break second year
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Sep 2023 · 1 response

What should we expect for Gustavo Petro’s second year? We think this phase will depend upon 1) what happens in the October 29th mayoral and gubernatorial races; 2) whether the economy definitively succumbs to recession, as the Central Bank projects, or rebounds, as private analysts expect; and 3)...

Justice Barroso became the president of the STF, Deputy Lindbergh Farias reported Roberto Campos Neto to the Ethics Committee, and the Desenrola program is the priority in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Sep 2023

Upon taking office as president of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Justice Luis Roberto Barroso defended harmony between the branches of government. This week, the relationship between the Legislature and the STF became more strained due to the time frame issue. Yesterday, one day after the meet...

Russia to raise defense spending 70%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Sep 2023

On September 28 Moscow announced this and said it was due to the West's hybrid war. It has been going for 20 months. The Russian Ministry of Finance said that defense spending will rise to USD 112 billion in 2023. This is more than the budgets of several other ministries combined. This rise in de...

Armenia considers joining the ICC as relations with Moscow sour
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Sep 2023

On September 29 Yerevan said it might join the International Criminal Court. The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin in 2023. States signed up to the ICC are obliged to arrest him if he enters their territory. Russia has not ratified the Rome Statute of the ICC. Neither has Ukraine, the US or ...

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