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European Commission considers opening accession talks with Ukraine: a major boost for the embattled nation
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Sep 2023

Bloomberg has reported that the European Commission is likely to recommend opening accession negotiations with Ukraine by the end of 2023. If this information is confirmed, it will be exceptionally positive news and a significant boost for Ukraine. Although Ukraine was granted candidate status in...

Ukrainians strike Russian Black Sea Fleet HQ
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2023

On September 23 a Ukrainian missile struck the HQ in Sevastopol. Videos have shown the building burning. Storm Shadow missiles provided by France and the UK were used in the attack. Russia said it shot down some missiles over Crimea. Ukraine has been concentrating its attacks on Crimea. Ukraine i...

Zelensky in Canada
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Sep 2023

On September 22 the Ukrainian President went on an unannounced visit to Ottawa. He was recently in New York for the UN General Assembly. He will address the Canadian Parliament. Canada has provided over USD 6 billion worth of arms since 2022. This is a lot considering Canada's 33 million populati...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi and UAE raise debt, Bahrain’s H1 deficit at -4.7% of GDP, Oman’s non-oil GDP flat in Q2, Fox interviews MBS
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Sep 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The US-Iran prisoner swap took place in Qatar but there was no nuclear file breakthrough yet. * Saudi Arabia is raising a $11bn 10-year loan, coordinated by ICBC, at +100bp. * S&P affirmed Saudi Arabia and forecasts a sma...

Economics and the problems of India's foreign policy
INDIA · Report · 22 Sep 2023

Foreign policy has traditionally not been particularly important in thinking about India's economics. This has changed, however, as (a) the most important engine of Indian growth is now services exports; and (b) the world of the second globalization, of unrestrained access for poor countries into...

Monetary Council next Tuesday, and the ban on grain imports from Ukraine
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Sep 2023

This month's rate-setting meeting is set for Tuesday (September 26). The general expectation is another 100bps cut of the O/N deposit rate, to 13%, given that CPI-inflation is predicted to fall below 13% this month, and so one of the MNB's objectives, to reach a positive real interest rate, will ...

Webinar Replay: South Africa - Outlook from the world stage
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Sep 2023

What does the BRICS Summit mean for South Africa and its outlook? What are the early emerging scenarios for its 2024 National Elections? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Iraj Abedian as he discusses how South Africa's international and domestic politics affect ...

The STF decided that the so-called “time frame” is unconstitutional, Justice Rosa Weber will retire on October 2, and the Prosecutor General’s term ends next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Sep 2023

By 9 votes to 2, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) decided, on Thursday, September 21, that the limitations imposed by the so-called “time frame” on the demarcation of indigenous lands are unconstitutional. The topic will continue to be discussed in Congress. Today will be Rosa Weber's last session...

A "Lehman Moment" for China?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 Sep 2023

Shadow banking poses a systemic risk to the Chinese economy as part of a greater debt problem. In this report, we trace the development of shadow banking in China and discuss the areas where risks to the sector lie. The main driving force behind the current demand for shadow credit has been th...

Poland bans Ukrainian grain and ends arms supplies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Sep 2023

On September 21 Poland made the announcement due to a row. Poland said it has given Ukraine 320 tanks and 14 fighter jets (all Soviet era). Overall it has donated a third of its military assets. Poland said it must now concentrate on its own defense. What it has donated to Ukraine is being replac...

China refuses to sell drones to Russia, causing shortage
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Sep 2023

On September 18 the Russian newspaper Kommersant reported the story. On September 1 China stopped selling UAVs and their components to Russia. China said it is stopping the sale of such items if they might be used militarily but said this was not aimed at any country in particular. Customs data s...

The South African Reserve Bank maintains its hike pause - in line with the Fed and Bank of England
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Sep 2023

The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.25% for the second consecutive meeting, which also left the prime lending rate at 11.75%. The continued halt keeps total interest rate increases since policy normalization began in November...

Economy grows slowly, as campaigning heats up
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 21 Sep 2023

The Dominican economy grew 2.9% y/y in July, its most robust growth rate so far this year. But growth for January-July 2023, at 1.4% y/y, dispelled any doubts that 2023 would be a lean year. Since 2007, annual growth rates below 1.4% January-July have only occurred during the great recession of 2...

Russian draftees more likely to be killed than professional soldiers
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Sep 2023

On September 21 IStories and the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) published a report saying 1 in 5 mobilized Russian soldiers are killed within 60 days of being sent to the war. They used open sources to compile this data. The report was based on 3,000 draftees who have been killed since Septembe...

The CBRT delivers the expected, road ahead uncertain
TURKEY · Report · 21 Sep 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate (one-week repo) by another 500 bps to 30%, in line with the market consensus (see chart), which was also the most likely outcome, in our view. The paragraph on inflation is now amended to include the acknowledgement of worse than expected July-August prints,...

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