GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

In December 2024, Israel's official unemployment rate dropped to 2.6% from 2.7% in November (seasonally adjusted). The broader measure of unemployment, which includes individuals temporarily out of work due to the war, fell to 4.0%, from 4.4% in the previous month. Consequently, the annual unempl...

China reported 5 percent GDP growth in 2024

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Jan 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - The year 2024 ended pretty much as we had all more or less expected: GDP grew by 5 percent on the dot (almost literally on the dot), driven by surging exports and expanding production, and dragged down by very weak domestic demand. This means that...

A difficult start and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jan 2025

The Ministry of Finance announces the standard tax rate percentage for the Value-Added Tax (VAT). Expectations are that it will be around 28%. President Lula may convene the ministerial team. Internationally, attention is focused on Donald Trump's inauguration in the United States and the World E...

The Petro administration declared two simultaneous emergencies

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 20 Jan 2025 · 1 response

A critical region located on the border with Venezuela, where Ecopetrol produces oil, and coca plantations and cocaine laboratories abound, is currently the theater of war between the guerrilla of ELN, on one side, and FARC dissidents on the other. These events have been particularly harsh recent...

Not so fast

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jan 2025

Monthly activity indicators point to a certain slowdown in the economy in the fourth quarter of 2024. Given the restrictive monetary policy and a possibly reduced fiscal impulse, we expect the cooling of economic activity to persist in 2025, with GDP projected to grow by 2.2%. However, we are mon...

Food security emergency could risk inflation

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Jan 2025

The beginning of 2025 does not seem to augur well for the Marcos government. It is under heavy siege for the so-called “sub-optimal” 2025 budget, for some, “unconscionable” budget. It is accused of corruption at all levels of government. Even retired generals and uniformed officials of the police...

Ukraine strikes Turkstream, pushing gas prices up 7%

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2025

Ukraine strikes gas pumping station in Russia that supplies gas to Europe via Turkey.Energy prices jump up to 7% amidst fears of a disruption of supply.Ukraine had previously cut off Europe from Russia by preventing gas transit through its territory earlier this month.Russia accuses the USA of be...

NBK holds its base rate unchanged

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jan 2025

The National Bank of Kazakhstan announced today that it decided to keep the base rate at 17.25%, quoting the usual symptoms, such as rising inflationary pressures, some signs of domestic demand overheating, and the lack of spare production capacities. Inflation in Kazakhstan remained at 0.9% m-o-...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Are the clouds darkening over Armenia?

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 17 Jan 2025

I argued in mid-2024 that Armenia's Eurobond outperformance (in particular relative to its higher-rated neighbor Georgia) was explicitly driven by perceptions of sharply reduced political and geopolitical risk premia. Internal challenges to PM Pashinyan failed to materialize over the course of 2...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025

A new wave of US sanctions was focused on the energy sector and caused new fears that the inflow of hard currency into Russia may decrease. As a result, the demand for hard currency increased, and the ruble moved well above USD/RUB 100 versus USD/RUB 99 at the end of 2024 (at the time of writing ...

Economic activity reportedly soared in December, albeit quite unexpectedly

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics announced that in 2024, the short-term indicator (that takes into account activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation, and communications) soared to 6.2%. In 11M24, it was up by 5.6%, implying a rapid acceleration in December alone. Mea...

One last vote under a hawkish Central Bank Board

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025

A more dovish Central Bank Board is on the way, as President Petro announced that Laura Moisá and César Giraldo will become members of the Board. Ms. Moisá, an economist from Universidad Nacional de Colombia and a PhD in Economic Development from Unicamp in Brazil, is currently the Deputy Preside...

EU growth champion performs but challenges loom

POLAND · Report · 15 Jan 2025

Poland’s growth over the last three decades has been unprecedented at around 4% on average. It has been driven by fast productivity growth, trade liberalization, FDI inflows, competitive wage levels, diversified industry, a large pool of competent workers, as well as a stable institutional enviro...

Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions flare again as Aliyev claims to be preparing a “Special Military Operation”

CIS POLITICS · Report · 15 Jan 2025

- Baku threatens to launch a “Special Military Operation” against “fascist” Armenia. - A video of former President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan talking about ethnic cleansing during the First Nagorno Karabakh War triggered outrage in Azerbaijan. - Armenia’s leaning towards the West provokes a...

As December inflation meets expectations, BCRA announces it will reduce crawl to 1% in February

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 15 Jan 2025

Yesterday, INDEC unveiled the December inflation number. It came at 2.7% m/m, in line with expectations, bringing 2004 annual inflation to 118%, down from 211% in 2023. The satisfactory headline December print encouraged BCRA to announce a reduction in the exchange rate crawl from 2% to 1% starti...