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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Mulino's triumph and prospects for reforms ahead
PANAMA · In Brief · 06 May 2024 · 2 responses

As we forecast in our previous report, José Raúl Mulino was elected President of the Republic of Panama for the period July 2024 to June 2029. He garnered 34.3% of the vote, nearly ten percentage points ahead of Ricardo Lombana, who might have won if there were a runoff. Mulino, whose electoral s...

Kazakhstan macro: economic growth to moderate amid limited stimulus, murky stats
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 06 May 2024

According to the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for overall economic activity) grew by 4.7% y-o-y in 1Q24. It grew by 5.1% in 2023. The short-term indicator incorporates the segments of industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportat...

Lira should announce the Working Group on Tax Reform regulation, Congress will analyze presidential vetoes on Thursday, and the STF should resume adjudication of the ADI on the state-owned companies law
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 May 2024

The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is expected to announce the creation, composition, rapporteur, and agenda of the Working Group on PLP nº 68/24, the government's first proposal to regulate Tax Reform. According to Lira, the goal is to approve all regulations before Congress recess...

Inflation continues to trend downward. For this trend to solidify, the process of the removal of exchange controls must be clearly outlined.
ARGENTINA · Report · 06 May 2024

The monthly inflation rate reported by INDEC for April is expected to be around 8.5%, three percentage points higher than the estimates based on online prices. This disparity is attributed to adjustments in prices and utility tariffs previously heavily controlled and distorted by the former gover...

Increasing indications of slowing growth
ISRAEL · Report · 06 May 2024

1. Economic indicators appear mixed, with signs of slowing growth ahead. 2. We continue to expect inflation to accelerate, limiting the possibility of monetary easing. 3. The shekel continues to fluctuate on shifting expectations regarding a possible cease-fire.

Signs of slowing growth; growth pessimism regarding a cease-fire
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 May 2024

Geopolitics: Expectations regarding a possible cease-fire continue to shift from some optimism to recently more pessimism, as Netanyahu refuses to agree to the end of the operation and total withdrawal from Gaza. Israel is preparing for an operation in Rafah, or at least pressure Hamas to agree t...

Diplomatic stand-off between the Philippines and China
PHILIPPINES · Report · 06 May 2024

The economic implications of the maritime and diplomatic stand-off between the Philippines and China cannot be overemphasized. Since the Philippines is expected to continue documenting and exposing similar attempts of China to expand its territories, and China would invariably deny them, the sign...

Spring is in the air
TURKEY · Report · 05 May 2024 · 1 response

In this econ-only Tracker, we provide a quick rundown of the past week’s data releases and developments. Growth indicators softened somewhat in April, while both March final and April preliminary trade data pointed to a visible deterioration in the core trade balance. As an aside, Turkey halte...

Georgia rocked by protest against foreign agents' bill
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 May 2024

In May 2024 there were ongoing protests in Tbilisi attended by tens of thousands of people. This is enormous in a country of 5 million people. Some demonstrators combined their protest with attending the Orthodox Easter vigil. Some say the bill is reminiscent of Russia's Foreign Agent Law. The po...

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan tell their people: do not go to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 May 2024

On May 2 Kyrgyzstan made the announcement. Tajikistan did so on April 28, 2024. This is in the wake of the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack that killed 144 people. 11 Tajik men face trial for this.  Central Asians who go to Russia face intense questioning at border control and having their lugga...

Lower inflation a key to quieting business fears
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 May 2024

By this time, many publicly-listed companies in the Philippines have held or about to hold their annual shareholders’ meeting to report on the previous year’s business performance. So far, the reports were more than encouraging with earnings beating the previous year’s post-pandemic record. Their...

Will sanctions against Chinese banks work?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 May 2024

The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. is considering imposing sanctions on Chinese banks that are supporting the export of goods to for Russia’s war in Ukraine. The State Department has denied the reports but it would be logical for the U.S. to use its dominance of the US dollar financia...

France and the UK taking bigger risks to aid Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 May 2024

On May 2 the President of France said that his country might send troops to Ukraine if Russia broke through Ukrainian lines and Kyiv requested such help. Since early 2024 President Macron has mooted the possibility of Western troops in Ukraine. But most NATO countries said they will never deploy ...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE boosts oil capacity, ADQ’s inaugural bond, Saudi non-oil growth slows, Oman awards green hydrogen blocks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 May 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil had its worst week in six months, dipping by about -7% on weak data and worries about rates. * Another Gaza ceasefire/hostage deal is being considered, but Netanyahu says he will assault Rafah anyway. * S&P warns that...

Webinar Replay: Panama and Dominican Republic Elections Outlook
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 03 May 2024

How will Panama and the Dominican Republic's 2024 elections play out, both in terms of their presidencies and the composition of their legislating bodies? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on Panama and the Dominican Republic's upcoming elections and how they will shape t...

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