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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The current account surplus widens in 10M23
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Nov 2023

The CBR’s preliminary report suggested that in October, the current account surplus was almost the same as in September ($11.2 bn versus $11.4 bn). In 10M23, the current account surplus widened to $53.8 bn. Such an improvement in Russia’s external balance occurred amid a higher Brent price and na...

Our inflation outlook hinges on a GL 44 renewal in April
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Nov 2023

In October, inflation in Venezuela slowed to 5.7 percent in an interruption of its sustained upward trend seen in May–September. We project annual inflation in 2023 to reach 202 percent, down from 234 percent in 2022. October was an atypical month in that primary money (M0) contracted despite ...

The recession ended in Q3 (well, actually in Q2 already according to revised data)
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Nov 2023

KSH reported Q3 2023 real GDP growth at +0.9% qoq, -0.3% yoy on seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis. They also revised previous quarters, and so the Q2 data changed to 0% qoq, -2.2% yoy. This means that the economy actually receded in three consecutive quarters through Q1 2023, it stagnated in...

The deadline for submitting edits to the LDO ends on Friday, Lula will meet with the economic team to discuss the fiscal target, and tomorrow is a national holiday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2023

The deadline for submitting edits to the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) was extended from Thursday, November 16, to Friday, November 17. The change was due to the national holiday tomorrow, November 15. Today, November 14, President Lula will have a meeting with members of the economic team, and the...

In Ecuadorian politics you can fry snowballs
ECUADOR · In Brief · 13 Nov 2023

The ADN of Daniel Noboa has been able to reach an agreement with Revolucion Ciudadana and Partido Social Cristiano to conform a majority of 94 legislators.The Social Christians sum 18, and ADN contributes 25, after capturing additional 11 legislators. Albeit those names have not been disclosed ye...

Politics: The opposition coalition unveils a draft of its 2024 platform, detailing how it would govern
MEXICO · Report · 13 Nov 2023

So far, coverage of the 2024 presidential contest has been focused on the activities and polling numbers of the two leading candidates, Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez. The latter candidate has been left struggling to mount her own team and is campaigning as best she can on the basis of her ...

The 2020 Depreciation, Foreign Exchange Flows and Trade Balance
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Nov 2023

The minutes of the last COPOM meeting stated that “at upcoming meetings” the easing pace of 50 basis points per meeting will be maintained, so it is certain that the SELIC rate will be lowered to 11.25% at the meeting in January. However, thereafter the Central Bank will have to use the “art in t...

What are the implications of Jamaica’s first international domestic currency bond offer?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 13 Nov 2023

On November 3, 2023, the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) issued its first Jamaican dollar-linked international bond for J$46.6 billion, or roughly US $300 million. The seven year SEC registered bond had a coupon of 9.625%, and was issued at a slight discount for a yield to maturity of roughly 9.75%. ...

Economics: Revenue shortfalls and accelerating spending likely to further squeeze public finances as Hurricane Otis adds to the budget debate
MEXICO · Report · 13 Nov 2023

Public finance statistics as of September 2023 reflect an increase in spending concentrated in social programs and a stagnation of total revenues because of the contraction of oil revenues. These have jointly led to an expansion of the public deficit of close to 20% in September alone and a cumul...

Iranian President visits Tajikistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Nov 2023

On November 13 the visit took place. The two countries have decided to allow visa-free travel between them. They also inked agreements on trade and transport. President Raisi also visited Tajikistan in 2022. Tajikistan is one of the few countries that welcomes the Iranian president. Iran is very ...

The CAE will analyze the bill on the taxation of exclusive and offshore funds, the report on the LDO maintained the zero-deficit target for 2024, and there is a national holiday on Wednesday, November 15
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Nov 2023

Last Thursday, November 9, the Senate received the bill on the taxation of exclusive and offshore funds. It will be analyzed by the Senate Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) before being put to a vote in the plenary. Regarding the budget, the preliminary report of Deputy Danilo Forte (União Brasil-...

Ahead of Sunday’s runoff vote, Massa slightly edges Milei in the final presidential debate
ARGENTINA · Report · 13 Nov 2023

As usually happens in runoff elections, particularly between those representing “extreme” political viewpoints, candidates generally seek to attract the undecided median voter. Sergio Massa, the candidate representing the current government, attempted to blast the libertarian independent Javier ...

Business sentiment falls sharply as hostilities persist
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Nov 2023

1. The October Business Sentiment Survey reflects an expected sharp decline in economic activity. 2. The fiscal deficit is expected to reach 4% GDP in 2023 and 6% GDP in 2024 as a result of the conflict. 3. We expect a CPI print of 0.5% m/m in October, impacted by seasonality and higher fre...

Russia evacuates its citizens from Gaza
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Nov 2023

On November 13 an announcement was made that Russian officials from the Emergency Situations Ministry and diplomats are bringing Russian citizens out of Gaza. There are over 600 Russians in Gaza. So far Israel has only allowed 80 Russians out of Gaza. 60 Russians have gone from Gaza to Egypt. Rus...

Western sources say Ukraine blew up Nord Stream Pipeline.
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2023

On November 11 The Washington Post and a German magazine cited Western and Ukrainian intelligence sources as saying that Ukraine was behind the explosion in 2022. Ukraine has accused Russia of blowing up the gas pipeline. Russia said that Ukraine did it. The pipeline in the Baltic Sea carried gas...

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