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Russian macro: Economy growing on a stable external balance and currency “detoxification”
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Dec 2023

As inflation accelerated and the CBR raised its key rate by 100 bps to 16%, Rosstat published 3Q23 statistics on the production side of GDP that confirmed that the Russian economy expanded by 5.5% y-o-y that quarter. The agency also mentioned that the national economy grew by 3.0% in 9M23. As Oct...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Dec 2023

The ruble appeared less volatile in the past couple of weeks - it fluctuated close to the R/$90 mark within a relatively narrow band. However, we see some room for its weakening in the coming months as average monthly federal budget expenditures will grow next year. Budgetary spending traditional...

The Senate approved the ICMS subsidy MP, Congress should vote on the 2024 Federal Budget, and the House will try to vote on the online sports betting and carbon market bills
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Dec 2023

Yesterday, the Senate concluded the vote on Provisional Measure (MP) 1185/23, which deals with the ICMS subsidy and Interest on Own Capital (JCP). The text now goes for presidential sanction. Today, Congress is set to vote on the 2024 Federal Budget. A session of the Joint Budget Committee is sch...

Atilla Yesilada: CBRT delivers as expected, more to come
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Dec 2023

I’m subbing for Murat Ucer who is in transit to share my impression of CBRT MPC decision and statement. Murat Ucer will update as and when he sees fit. Gaye Erkan and Co. delivered as widely expected by surveys, raising the policy rate by 250 basis points to 42.5%. The accompanying statement sugg...

An irrelevant 2024 fiscal budget
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Dec 2023

On December 14, 2023, the National Assembly approved the 2024 Budget and Indebtedness Law for Bs 730 billion ($20 billion at the BCV exchange rate). This budget, unfortunately, does not serve its purpose as a fiscal policy guidance tool, which is a matter of concern.

Russo-Israeli relations at new low
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Dec 2023

This is the worst they have been since the dissolution of the USSR. The October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel were not fulsomely denounced by Putin despite Russians' being among the victims. Moscow has called for a ceasefire in Gaza. Putin even said Israel's tactics were close to Nazi ones. Hamas say...

Does Milei’s reform program risk insurmountable resistance?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 21 Dec 2023

Last night, in a recorded speech on national television, President Javier Milei announced the signature of a Decree of Necessity and Urgency (DNU), which includes more than 300 reform points. He gave his speech in the company of all his cabinet (who had co-signed the DNU), with the addition of Fe...

Does this help the Barbados negotiations?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 20 Dec 2023

The Maduro government released two American prisoners yesterday and returned them shortly after to prison allegedly because of an airplane issue. It seems more likely that this episode was part of the most critical prisoner exchange that Maduro has ever carried out, involving the release of Alex ...

The LDO was approved, the Senate should vote on the ICMS subsidy MP today, and the House is expected to vote on the online sports betting bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Dec 2023

Yesterday, the National Congress approved the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO). The text now goes for presidential sanction. Also today, the Senate should vote on Provisional Measure Nº 1,185, which deals with the ICMS subsidy and Interest on Own Capital (JCP). The text was approved last week and is p...

Azerbaijan: Central bank eases further to 8.00 percent from 8.50 percent previously
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 20 Dec 2023

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan lowered the refinancing rate by 50bpts to 8.00 percent. The central bank was the last one in the region to transition into easing, having cut the policy rate for the first time only in Nov. Thus, cumulative cuts amount to 100bpts for the year. The central bank point...

Georgia: Central bank cuts policy rate by 50bpts to 9.5 percent
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 20 Dec 2023

The National Bank of Georgia decreased the refinancing rate by 50bpts to 9.50 percent. There was some uncertainty about the decision given the message that the central bank sent at the previous policy meeting in Oct when it specifically referred to elevated geopolitical risk in the region as the ...

Laying the groundwork for elections
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Dec 2023

Faced with a high likelihood that a competitive election could lead Maduro to lose power or that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling could hand Guyana a victory, the government has chosen the defense of the Essequibo as a way to unify the people against two enemies, one external (Guya...

Growth performance mixed, as political turmoil rises.
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 19 Dec 2023

Costa Rica’s 2023 economic performance looks promising, according to economic activity figures to October. Domestic political conditions continue as reported since June 2022, with tense relations between the government and the opposition, but seemingly with little impact on the course of business...

A slightly more optimistic year-end
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 19 Dec 2023 · 1 response

As 2023 winds down, there’s good news in the macroeconomic sphere: inflation reached its target level of 4% y/y in October, and the economic activity growth rate strengthened, to 3.6% y/y, after hitting rock bottom last June, with a mere 0.1% y/y growth. The number of tourists arriving by air and...

MNB base rate down 75 bps today, to end 2023 at 10.75%
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Dec 2023

The Monetary Council held its last regular monthly rate-setting meeting today, this time also discussing the Q4 inflation report. The decision was a 75 bps cut of the base rate and the interest rate corridor alike, the same way as it happened in the previous two months: After the meeting, vice go...

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