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Politics: Trump’s threats cast a shadow over the Mexican outlook
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2025

Supporters of Claudia Sheinbaum jammed Mexico City’s Zocalo square on January 12th for a rally to mark her 100 days in office. The new President’s speech centered on several key points: continuity with AMLO’s project and policies and a rejection of a return to the neoliberal past; major achieveme...

Economics: Signs of progress in Sheinbaum’s Plan Mexico but excessive optimism and other faults of past years continue to predominate
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2025

Plan Mexico: a National Strategy for Industrialization and Shared Prosperity, which the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum unveiled on January 13, clearly marks a step in the right direction in terms of planning. Complete with a mission and goals for 2030, actions for January-April 202...

Israel's unemployment hits historic low in December 2024 amid tight labor market; easing expected in 2025
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Jan 2025

In December 2024, Israel's official unemployment rate dropped to 2.6% from 2.7% in November (seasonally adjusted). The broader measure of unemployment, which includes individuals temporarily out of work due to the war, fell to 4.0%, from 4.4% in the previous month. Consequently, the annual unempl...

China reported 5 percent GDP growth in 2024
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Jan 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - The year 2024 ended pretty much as we had all more or less expected: GDP grew by 5 percent on the dot (almost literally on the dot), driven by surging exports and expanding production, and dragged down by very weak domestic demand. This means that...

A difficult start and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jan 2025

The Ministry of Finance announces the standard tax rate percentage for the Value-Added Tax (VAT). Expectations are that it will be around 28%. President Lula may convene the ministerial team. Internationally, attention is focused on Donald Trump's inauguration in the United States and the World E...

The Petro administration declared two simultaneous emergencies
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 20 Jan 2025 · 1 response

A critical region located on the border with Venezuela, where Ecopetrol produces oil, and coca plantations and cocaine laboratories abound, is currently the theater of war between the guerrilla of ELN, on one side, and FARC dissidents on the other. These events have been particularly harsh recent...

Not so fast
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jan 2025

Monthly activity indicators point to a certain slowdown in the economy in the fourth quarter of 2024. Given the restrictive monetary policy and a possibly reduced fiscal impulse, we expect the cooling of economic activity to persist in 2025, with GDP projected to grow by 2.2%. However, we are mon...

Food security emergency could risk inflation
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Jan 2025

The beginning of 2025 does not seem to augur well for the Marcos government. It is under heavy siege for the so-called “sub-optimal” 2025 budget, for some, “unconscionable” budget. It is accused of corruption at all levels of government. Even retired generals and uniformed officials of the police...

The fog of war: understanding broader battlefield realities
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Jan 2025

On the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration, let me provide an overview of the current stance on the battlefield in Ukraine to offer a better picture of where we stand and the position from which the announced negotiations might commence. I am not a military expert—I’ve said that many times. What I...

All eyes on CBRT and Ocalan
TURKEY · Report · 19 Jan 2025 · 2 responses

After the ousting of yet another CHP mayor, that of Istanbul borough Besiktas, CHP leader Ozgur Ozel declared war on Erdogan, promising unspeakable destruction. In reality, there is not much CHP can do to restrain Erdogan, perhaps short of quitting Grand Assembly sessions altogether. On the other...

Ukraine strikes Turkstream, pushing gas prices up 7%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2025

Ukraine strikes gas pumping station in Russia that supplies gas to Europe via Turkey.Energy prices jump up to 7% amidst fears of a disruption of supply.Ukraine had previously cut off Europe from Russia by preventing gas transit through its territory earlier this month.Russia accuses the USA of be...

2024 was better than expected, but 2025 will be full of challenges
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 17 Jan 2025

The economy in 2024 performed better than initially expected. A preliminary estimate put growth at a rate very close to potential growth of 5%, due to significant investment expansion (7.5% y/y in January-September 2024) and exports (5.1% y/y in January-September 2024). Inflation was 3.35%, close...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar mediates a Gaza ceasefire, Saudi’s Maaden plans bonds, Kuwait confirms sin tax, Gulf states re-engage with Lebanon
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Jan 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil touched a five-month high following substantive US sanctions on Russian oil tankers. * OPEC and the IEA still diverge on oil demand forecasts and by 0.6m b/d on the 2024 outturn. * Following the signing of its C...

NBK holds its base rate unchanged
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jan 2025

The National Bank of Kazakhstan announced today that it decided to keep the base rate at 17.25%, quoting the usual symptoms, such as rising inflationary pressures, some signs of domestic demand overheating, and the lack of spare production capacities. Inflation in Kazakhstan remained at 0.9% m-o-...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Are the clouds darkening over Armenia?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 17 Jan 2025

I argued in mid-2024 that Armenia's Eurobond outperformance (in particular relative to its higher-rated neighbor Georgia) was explicitly driven by perceptions of sharply reduced political and geopolitical risk premia. Internal challenges to PM Pashinyan failed to materialize over the course of 2...

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