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German delivers arms to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jan 2024

On January 4 Ukraine announced that it has received a Skynex anti-aircraft system, missiles for Patriot air defense systems, ammunition for Leopard tanks, radars, drone, detectors, trucks, anti-aircraft guns and small arms and ammunition. Berlin said it will double military aid to Ukraine in 2024...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current account improvement in late 2023 signals less external pressure in 2024
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Jan 2024

The publication of current account data for the CCA economies for 3Q23 lends support to our view expressed in the previous CCA Weekly, in which we argued that the main deterioration of external positions in the region may be behind us. Improving CAs in 2022 were chiefly driven by copious net mone...

Ukraine struggles to recruit troops as draft proves controversial
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jan 2024

In 2022 Ukraine had plenty of volunteers for its military. But the war shows no sign of ending in 2024, and tens of thousands of military deaths have meant that few men are volunteering. They are demoralized by the defeat of the counter-offensive. Russia has almost 4 times the population of Ukrai...

Finance Minister Contreras resigns
PERU · In Brief · 04 Jan 2024 · 3 responses

This morning Finance Minister Contreras submitted his letter of resignation to President Dina Boluarte. In his letter he mentioned "lack of transparency," presumably from the presidency. Apparently, President Boluarte had been looking for a replacement since late December and had met with former ...

Largely good news on government finances
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2024 · 1 response

Yesterday's sale of $2.5bn of 12-year USD-denominated bonds by ÁKK was met by good demand, and pricing was significantly more favourable than a year ago. The new bonds were based on a $5.8bn book, and the yield came out at 5.74%, 180bps over the US Treasury bond expiring in November 2033. Last Ja...

Ukraine bombards Russian city
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2024

On January 3 Russia said that Belgorod was attacked by a Ukrainian missile. The city is close to the Ukrainian border and was hit by Ukrainian fire several times in December 2023. Russia regards these as terrorist attacks. Russia claims to have shot down a lot of Ukrainian missiles over Belgorod,...

Inflation ends 2023 at just under 65%
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2024 · 1 response

Consumer price inflation was 2.9%, m/m, in December broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month CPI inflation hence ending the year at 64.8%, up from 62% in November, which is in line with the CBRT’s latest forecast (mid-point %65) announced in the October Inflation Report. Monthly D...

Georgian breakaway region leases land to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2024

On December 27 the President of Abkhazia signed a law that transferred a Black Sea resort to Russia for 49 years. Abkhazia is recognized as an independent country by Russia. However, the international community recognizes it as Georgian territory. The Abkhazian parliament passed the law during an...

Kazakhstan macro: One-off measures improve revenue collection in 2023, but next year looks challenging
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 02 Jan 2024

At the end of December, the Ministry of Finance published budgetary 11M23 statistics, and the data were not immune from surprises. We have often mentioned that a weaker tenge was required to finance all the amended expenditures. In 2023, tax collection was well behind the plan, as the strengtheni...

CCA Highlights: Armenia bound to show stellar growth for full-year 2023, Azerbaijan and Georgia persist with rate cuts, Uzbekistan to move earlier than expected to net-gas-importer status
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 02 Jan 2024

We briefly discuss key economic and political events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Short-term economic indicator increases by 11.2 percent YoY in Nov Armenia: Growth slows significantly on a s.a. Q-o-Q basis in 3Q23 Armenia: Nikol Pashinyan attends key EEU and CIS meetings in M...

Officially estimated fiscal deficit just slightly below the 2022 actual, exceeds revised target
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Jan 2024

Meeting a legal requirement, the Finance Ministry published its revised macroeconomic forecast tables on December 31. In these, the Ministry estimated the annual general government deficit by Eurostat method at 5.9% of GDP, slightly below the 6.2% actual of 2022, and materially exceeding the revi...

An upward 2021-2022 GDP revision by Rosstat
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2024

At the very end of 2023, Rosstat announced it had revised some historical data, such as GDP accounts for 2021 and 2022. Having slightly reappraised the nominal accounts, the agency also changed growth numbers. The new data suggest that in 2021, the Russian GDP grew by 5.9% (5.6% previously), and ...

Essential CIS Politics: January 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Jan 2024

* Putin stated he is running for re-election against 15 other candidates. * Ukraine is receiving less and less aid from its allies, which jeopardizes its war effort. * The EU began accession talks with Ukraine, but Hungary vetoed EU aid. * A major strike by oil logistics wo...

Rates reduced as inflation moderates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 Jan 2024

Rates reduced as inflation moderates The BOI cut rates by 0.25% to 4.5% due to the inflation deceleration (which is expected to continue into Q124) as well as lower inflation expectations. This trend (supported by shekel appreciation) effectively raises real rates and allows for lower rates, desp...

Armenia and Azerbaijan discuss peace
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jan 2024

On December 26 the Prime Minister of Armenia met the Azeri President in St Petersburg. It was at the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Summit. Both countries are members of the CIS along with other former Soviet countries. Baku and Yerevan have exchanged 7 draft agreements on permanent pea...

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