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GULF WEEKLY: US strikes Houthis, Saudi issues $12bn in bonds, MBC soars after IPO, Qatar publishes development strategy
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Jan 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude rebounded to $80 following US strikes on Yemen, days after it fell over Saudi price cuts. * The Gulf is divided, with Bahrain backing the strikes but Saudi, Oman and Qatar expressing concerns. * Meanwhile, the...

UK Prime Minister in Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jan 2024

On January 12 Sunak made the unannounced visit. Like most leaders, he crossed the border from Poland and travelled by train. Sunak announced an aid package of USD 3.2 billion for 2024. This is USD 250 million more than 2023. Bear in mind that with inflation this is a small increase on 2023. Briti...

Baltics donating to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jan 2024

On January 11 Lithuania announced aid for Ukraine including anti-tank weapons, anti-aircraft systems, artillery and shells. On January 11 Zelensky also visited Latvia, where he met the president. Latvia also announced military aid to Ukraine. This comprises anti-tank systems, anti-aircraft system...

President Lula announced Lewandowski as Flávio Dino’s replacement, 21 working subgroups have been created to help regulate Tax Reform, and Brazil will send only a small delegation to the World Economic Forum, to be held in Davos next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jan 2024

President Lula confirmed in a speech at the Planalto Palace that former Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Ricardo Lewandowski will be the new Minister of Justice and Public Security. He is expected to take office on February 1. State finance secretariats have already established, within the sco...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Growth momentum still robust, if gradually moderating in 3Q23
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Jan 2024

With Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan the last CCA countries to report final 3Q23 GDP data, we now have a full picture to assess how economic activity has evolved over the first three quarters of 2023. Economic growth in the region has been steadily diminishing from the peak of 11.6 percent YoY in 2Q21 ...

Charting the economic course under President Milei: a 2024 projection
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 11 Jan 2024

In the brief span since December 10, President Milei's administration has unleashed a barrage of announcements and policy announcements that surpass the combined dynamism witnessed during the eight years of the Macri and Fernandez governments. This fervor signals Milei's commitment to transformat...

President Lula may announce Minister Flávio Dino’s replacement, Central Bank employees are on a 24-hour strike, and the government sent a bill to Congress to reformulate the bankruptcy law
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jan 2024

President Lula (PT) may announce today his final decision on who will replace Minister Flávio Dino (PSB) in the Ministry of Justice. Lula had a series of meetings with Ricardo Lewandowski, which suggests he is likely to be chosen for the position. On today's agenda, it is worth noting that Centra...

Fiscal deficit will expand into 2024
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Jan 2024

Fiscal deficit reaches 4.2% GDP The fiscal deficit in 2023 reached 4.2% GDP as expenditures increased by 14.2% y/y and revenues declined by 6.4%. The fiscal deficit in December reached 33.8bn ILS (compared to 18.5bn last year) with 17.2bn additional spending due to the war. The deficit of 77bn IL...

Zelensky in Lithuania
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jan 2024

On January 10 the Ukrainian President made an unannounced visit to Vilnius where he met his Lithuanian counterpart. Ukrainian accession to NATO and the EU were on the agenda. Lithuania is a member of both. It is also a former Soviet republic. Zelensky visited the country in 2023, as well. Zelensk...

Russian macro: Revised GDP stats hint the economy may accelerate in 2024 as its growth model evolves
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jan 2024

Rosstat reported that Russia's GDP grew by 3.0% y-o-y in 9M23, which looked better than one could have expected at the beginning of last year. In 3Q23, GDP increased by 5.5%, up from 4.9% in 2Q23. The nation’s economy contracted by 1.8% in 1Q23 (all numbers are y-o-y). At the same time Rosstat re...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 Jan 2024

Dec 28 S&P: The agency confirms KazMunaiGas' credit rating at BB+ with "stable" outlook CPC: The company suspended oil transportation through the Tengiz-Novorossiysk pipeline from Dec 25 to Dec 28 Prime-Minister: Kazakhstan's GDP growth is expected at 5% in 2023 Gazprom: By mid-year, the company ...

Discussions on the payroll tax continue, the Voa Brasil program should begin in the first week of February, and the Minister of Mines and Energy and the Minister of Agrarian Development are expected to restructure the Social Biofuel Seal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jan 2024

In Brasília, the discussion about the exemption or return of the payroll tax continues to be the focus of the political debate. Yesterday, the president of the National Congress, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), met with Senate leaders to discuss the issue. He is looking for a negotiated solution in ord...

The mood has soured
UKRAINE · Report · 09 Jan 2024

The mood has soured dramatically, amid discussions focusing on the West's indecisiveness, potential cuts in military supplies, delayed financing from the United States and looming tightened recruitment measures. Yet if we set aside the issue of soured sentiments, we can see that Ukraine's pos...

Industrial slump in Europe is taking its toll: an awful output number is reported for November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jan 2024

KSH says that industrial output fell 2.3% mom, 5.4% yoy in November. The latter follows -3.1% yoy in October and -5% yoy in Q3. The cumulative 11-month output growth was -4.8% yoy. Details are not available yet, but KSH briefly said that in November, only oil refining and chemical products grew, ...

Steel demand in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Jan 2024

China’s property industry, one of the major buyers of steel, is in decline. Property accounts for about one third of steel demand in China. The top 100 developers suffered declines of 4 percent sequentially and 30 percent year on year for contracted sales in November, according to CRIC estimates....

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