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Industrial slump in Europe is taking its toll: an awful output number is reported for November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jan 2024

KSH says that industrial output fell 2.3% mom, 5.4% yoy in November. The latter follows -3.1% yoy in October and -5% yoy in Q3. The cumulative 11-month output growth was -4.8% yoy. Details are not available yet, but KSH briefly said that in November, only oil refining and chemical products grew, ...

Steel demand in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Jan 2024

China’s property industry, one of the major buyers of steel, is in decline. Property accounts for about one third of steel demand in China. The top 100 developers suffered declines of 4 percent sequentially and 30 percent year on year for contracted sales in November, according to CRIC estimates....

Pacheco will meet with party leaders to discuss the payroll tax issue, Eletrobras and the AGU met to discuss the government’s participation in the company, and Lula is expected to appoint Lewandowski to the Ministry of Justice
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jan 2024

Today, the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), will meet with party leaders to discuss the provisional measure (MP) on the repayment of the payroll tax. Yesterday, representatives from Eletrobras and the Attorney General's Office (AGU) had their first meeting with the AGU's Federal...

Economics: Continuing tear in construction is a major driver of GDP growth, but the data is both uneven and demanding of further review
MEXICO · Report · 08 Jan 2024

Mexico’s economy is currently estimated by analysts to have grown 3.2% in 2023, a result in line with what the Ministry of Finance projected in the general economic assumptions text (CGPE) and significantly higher than the roughly 1.0% increase the market consensus anticipated at the beginning of...

Politics: Opposition in need of new strategies as support slips despite widespread discontent with the incumbents
MEXICO · Report · 08 Jan 2024

As we continue our analysis of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly poll of registered voters, we see that while support for Claudia Sheinbaum remained largely unchanged at slightly above 50%, she grew her lead over Xóchitl Gálvez, for whom support fell by 4pp. The gap separating them widened from 19 to ...

The Challenges Facing the Government In 2024
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Jan 2024

We’re starting 2024 – the first year of the new Fiscal Framework. Although the successive cuts of the SELIC rate have made monetary policy looser, it is still sufficiently restrictive to reduce economic growth. How will the government react to a reduction of GDP growth from 3.1% to 1.5%? The conf...

Philippines inflation: establishing a downtrend?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 08 Jan 2024

The January 5 release of the December 2023 inflation rate report in the Philippines indicates another possible downtrend of the country’s price movements. The first episode occurred last year, when inflation fell from a peak of 8.7% in January 2023 and dropped consistently in the following months...

President Lula holds an event in defense of democracy, Pacheco should discuss the payroll tax relief issue, and Lula is expected to sanction the Multi-Year Investment Plan this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jan 2024

President Lula recalls the vandalism of public buildings that took place on January 8 last year in an event to be held today at the National Congress. The opposition believes the government should not be politicizing the event and released a statement last week criticizing what it called “the abu...

Could inflation surprise on the upside in 2024?
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Jan 2024

1. Policy rates were cut to 4.5% due to moderating inflation and a strong shekel; fiscal concerns were secondary. 2. We revised our inflation forecast up to 2.8% in 2024. 3. Higher shipping costs, pent-up demand, and a rebound in housing rentals are likely to push inflation higher.

Retail sales was trying to climb out of the ditch with moderate success in November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jan 2024

Retail sales grew by 0.8% mom in November, the best figure seen since March 2022, according to this morning's report by KSH. On fix basis (Dec 2010 =100), the volume of turnover developed as follows: The encouraging increase in November must have been greatly supported by the 3.1% compensatory in...

Will inflation surprise on the upside in 2024?
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Jan 2024

Rate cut on decelerating inflation Policy rate declined by 0.25% to 4.5% last Monday with the Bank of Israel noting that inflation has moderated significantly in recent months, the shekel has appreciated and other central banks are expected to loosen. The Governor noted that inflation y/y is expe...

New year, old agenda
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jan 2024

Our politics coverage starts with a preview of four major events that will define the course of Turkish politics. President Erdogan and nationalist ally Bahceli are likely to emerge victorious from end-March municipal polls, after which they will tackle the unfinished business of amending the con...

Japan offers to fund Ukraine air defense
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2024

On January 7 the Japanese Foreign Minister made a surprise visit to Kyiv. She said that Japan will donate another USD 37 million so Ukraine can afford drone detection systems. These are important in air defense. The Foreign Minister's press conference was held in an underground bomb shelter due t...

EU sanctions Russian diamonds
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jan 2024

On January 3 the European Union announced an immediate ban on diamonds from the state-run Alrosa. Its CEO is also sanctioned, meaning his assets in the EU are frozen and he is unable to travel to the EU. Alrosa is the largest diamond mining company on the planet. The ban covers synthetic as well ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman and Sharjah budgets, Kuwait GDP after a 2-year hiatus, Kuwait PM nominated, Saudi cuts diesel subsidies
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Jan 2024 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. This report covers the two-week period from December 23, 2023. Headlines: * Brent crude recovers to $79 on worries about Libya protests and Gaza-related tensions. * As the Gaza war continued, Israel and the US assassinated militants in...

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