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Lira should meet with Haddad to discuss the payroll tax issue, the Ministry of Finance is considering ending the tax exemption on imports of up to US$ 50, and Lula plans to travel around the country this year
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jan 2024

Today, the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is expected to come to Brasília to meet with the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), to discuss the payroll tax exemption. The Ministry is considering ending the import tax exemption on imported products of up to US$ 50, but this meas...

Two forint-negative events are reported today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Jan 2024

MNB's Mr. Virág spoke at Euromoney's conference in Vienna today. He gave a pretty specific guidance on the prospective path of the Bank's interest rate policy for the next six months. He said that the Council may speed up rate-cutting to 100bps per month at its next meeting on January 30, as curr...

2023 ended pretty weak, suggesting a weak start for 2024
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Jan 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * There were no surprises in Beijing’s recent economic data releases, either for December or for the full-year 2023. As expected, with annual GDP growth of 5.2 percent, China managed to exceed its GDP growth target, but (also as expected) not withou...

Haddad met with Padilha to discuss the payroll tax issue, Tarcísio publicly supported the re-election campaign of the current mayor of São Paulo, and the PT approved the affiliation of Marta Suplicy with the party to run for vice mayor of São Paulo
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jan 2024

Yesterday, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), met with the Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha (PT), to discuss the payroll tax issue. He did not say what the government's decision would be but said he would speak with President Lula to negotiate a solution. In the ...

Increases and promises have begun
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 17 Jan 2024

Increases and promises have begun On January 15, President Nicolás Maduro announced the increase of the Minimum Integral Indexed Income (Ingreso Mínimo Integral Indexado, IMII) for public sector workers to $100 (from $80, +25%) as of February 1, by way of an increase of the Bonus Against the Econ...

Ecuador’s violence sends shockwaves; El Niño impact less severe than expected; BCRP likely to pause in February and March
PERU · Report · 16 Jan 2024 · 2 responses

We discuss three topics in this report. First, in politics, we discuss the risk that the recent wave of violence in neighboring Ecuador will spread to Peru. Next, we discuss our economic outlook, and reassess the impacts of the El Niño weather shock. Finally, we discuss the recent decision by the...

Uzbekistan-to-China road opens
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2024

On January 10 the first TIR (Transports Internationaux Routiers or International Road Transport) truck departed from China to Tashkent, Uzbekistan carrying electrical goods. It is a 6,500 km journey. The route goes via Kyrgyzstan. The journey should take 7 days. Before the new road opened it usua...

Economics: Wage hikes and pending and potential labor reforms heighten labor cost pressures following a slight 4Q inflation rebound
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jan 2024

Consumer inflation concluded December 2023 with a slight rebound above levels of the previous few months, but at 4.66% it was considerably lower than the 7.82% year-end rate of 2022. Core inflation (5.09%) continued to outpace headline inflation, pressured higher by core services (5.33%), and foo...

Politics: A de-legitimizing loss of civility, and new corruption scandals within the 4T and the opposition threaten citizen participation
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jan 2024

The behaviors and practices of members of the political class from all parties in Mexico show with increasing brazenness what little regard they have for rules. The privileges that government officials and party leaders have historically enjoyed plus the widespread corruption under the previous p...

CCA Highlights: Fresh tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, energy extraction drops in Azerbaijan in 2023, Georgia confirmed at BB, new CB Governor in Tajikistan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Jan 2024

We highlight key macro-related evenst in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: CPI falls by 0.6 percent YoY in Dec Armenia: Net monetary inflows (remittances) drop to lowest in Nov Armenia: Budget deficit to remain contained in 2023 Armenia: Prime Minister Pashinyan takes a hit at Presid...

North Korean Foreign Minister in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2024

On January 16 Choe Son Hui met her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. Very few countries are willing to receive North Korean dignitaries. Lavrov expressed his gratitude for North Korea's vote against a UN resolution calling on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. He said his meeting today was to refl...

The promise of export-led growth
INDIA · Report · 16 Jan 2024

Many, if not most, global corporations have embarked on producing software, back office and R&D in India. There is considerable skill and capability in global corporations and domestically in performing these three roles in India. There was a remarkable streak of growth in these fields from 2...

Pacheco and Haddad found no solution to the payroll tax issue, Lula met with the president of Paraguay, and three ministers will attend a panel at Davos about the energy transition in Brazil
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jan 2024

Yesterday, the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), met with the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), to discuss the payroll tax exemption. The meeting ended without a solution to the issue. Yesterday, Lula met with the president of Paraguay, Santiago Peña. They discussed the ...

A record of over 9 million tourists is expected to have visited in 2023 as Bahamas repays its Eurobond
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 16 Jan 2024

The Bahamas tourism-driven recovery accelerated in the second half of last year, with international flight and cruise arrivals rising well above their pre-pandemic levels. Bahamas is now expecting well over 9 million tourists to have visited during the calendar year of 2023 once December numbers ...

What Explains 2023 Growth?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jan 2024

It is becoming increasingly clear that growth in 2023 was not due to increased potential GDP. Despite seducing influential observers, the narrative that Brazil is reaping the benefits of the maturing of past reforms cannot withstand the clear evidence that only actual GDP has been rising, derived...

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