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The first problems of 2024 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jan 2024

Even with the congressional recess, the discussion about payroll tax relief continues behind the scenes. States and the Federal Government are working on regulating Tax Reform. Data we compiled shows that, despite the difficulties he has faced, President Lula maintains a considerable level of sup...

December’s CPI surprised on the downside
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Jan 2024

1. Inflation surprised on the downside in December; core inflation moderated to 2.7% y/y. 2. We have revised our inflation forecast upward due to the weaker shekel and higher taxation as part of fiscal accommodation. 3. This week, markets will follow closely the credibility of the fiscal ...

South Africa’s year of national elections: the ANC’s pre-election January 8 statement
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Jan 2024

Amidst what is likely to be the toughest year since taking power in South Africa after the fall of the apartheid government for the African National Congress (ANC), President Ramaphosa, who is both President of the governing ANC and the Republic, delivered the ANC’s customary January 8 Statement,...

Exchange rates matter now more than ever
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Jan 2024

In 2023, the Venezuelan Central Bank (Banco Central de Venezuela, or BCV) sharpened its focus on taming the exchange rate. In the fourth quarter, which is when public outlays tend to be strongest, the BCV supplemented active exchange rate intervention with close monitoring of bank exchange operat...

Charter change: Game changer in the Philippines?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Jan 2024

It started with one ad that made the rounds of television networks, calling for a change in some provisions of the 1987 Philippine Constitution. Repudiating the 1986 People Power Revolution that ended the elder Marcos's dictatorship, the message was that progress in the Philippines was stalled be...

Bernardo Arevalo was sworn in as president of Guatemala after serious difficulties in the presidential inauguration
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 15 Jan 2024

Bernardo Arevalo was sworn as president of Guatemala after serious difficulties in the presidential inauguration. On January 15th, Bernardo Arevalo was sworn as president of Guatemala for a four-year period. The delays were a consequence of the declaration of the 23 legislators of the Semilla Par...

Inflation in December surprises on the downside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jan 2024

Inflation in December surprises on the downside Inflation declined by 0.1% m/m and moderated to 3.0% y/y from 3.3% last month (expectations were for 3.1% y/y). Core inflation moderate to 2.7% y/y from 2.9%. Seasonally adjusted CPI in the past three months slowed to an annual rate of 1.5% from 2.3...

United Nations asks for USD 4.2 billion in aid for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jan 2024

On January 15 the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNCHA) asked for this amount in humanitarian aid. This is to provide for people in Ukraine and for Ukrainians who have fled abroad. 40% of the Ukrainian population is dependent on aid. Over 6 million Ukrainians are refugees...

An exceptionally weak figure for construction in November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Jan 2024

Construction output fell by 2.6% mom, 12.8 yoy in November, on seasonally and day-adjusted basis, of course. This looks exceptionally weak, after 0.3% yoy positive growth in October and -1.1% yoy in Q3. Importantly, the bulk of this weakness is conveniently explained by a major negative base effe...

Oil workers' strike in Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jan 2024

On January 5 oil workers for a Chinese owned company called Velikaya Stena went on strike in Manghystau Region. They want lay-offs to be reversed and they demand higher salaries and fair working conditions. The strikes are in Aqtau. They have requested the president to mediate. Other oil transpor...

PKK raid, Istanbul race, falling reserves
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jan 2024

AKP nominated former Environmental and Urban Affairs Minister Murat Kurum to challenge Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who seems significantly ahead in early poll data. Yet, Erdogan’s massive propaganda advantage and the strategies of pro-Kurdish party DEM may yet result in surprises. Meanwhile, g...

Markets will be following fiscal adjustments closely
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jan 2024

The fiscal deficit reached 4.2% GDP in 2023. Expenditures increased by 14.2% (mostly in Q4 due to the war) and revenues declined by 6.4%. The deficit is expected to reach 5.7% in 2024 and possibly higher. Fiscal financing will be diverse, both abroad and domestic, but will require large gross dom...

Majority of Filipinos rate inflation as topmost concern
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 Jan 2024

It is not surprising that majority of Filipinos continued to express concerns over the issue of inflation. While inflation descended to only 3.9% in December 2023, already within the official target of 2-4%, the overall 2023 average inflation reached 6.0% (2018=100), the highest since 2008 when i...

State of war
ECUADOR · Report · 12 Jan 2024

President Noboa sent last night the third urgent economic bill, which has one purpose only: to raise the VAT from 12% to 15%. The rationale for the decision is the need to raise financing for expenditures associated with security and for the state of war dictated last Monday in response to nation...

Mixed feelings about the December CPI-inflation data
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Jan 2024

The headline rate of CPI-inflation for December was reported at -0.3% mom, 5.5% yoy this morning. Core inflation was much stronger, at 0.2% mom and 7.6% yoy. Non-fuel inflation, which we also think is an important indicator, was 0.1% mom, 6.4% yoy. The yoy headline rate dropped sharply, from 7.9%...

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