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Ukraine retreats from eastern city
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Dec 2023

On December 26 the most senior general in the Ukrainian Army, Valery Zaluzhni, announced that his forces had pulled out of Maryinka. He claimed that the city had been totally destroyed by Russian bombardment. Russia claims to have seized the whole city. The city has been under attack since the st...

Our projection for 2024: The economy is uncertain, the NFPS budget is under discussion, and it formally complies with the fiscal law
PANAMA · Report · 26 Dec 2023

The year 2023 will be a reminiscence of how sudden events can alter the course of economic projections. While the first semester of 2023 witnessed robust growth of 8.8%, driven by the traditional sectors, we anticipate a slowdown in the second half of the year, culminating in a 1.9% contraction i...

4th Quarter BES: one missing link
PHILIPPINES · Report · 26 Dec 2023

This is the biggest hurdle for public authorities in achieving high and sustainable economic growth: to leverage on technology and strategic work systems. To the extent that private firms, whether big conglomerates or small business outfits, are capable of transcending a situation of limited capi...

China building railroads in Central Asia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Dec 2023

On December 21 Kazakhstan announced that a rail line will stretch 272 km from Ayagoz to Bakhty on the border with China. Construction is already underway. The aim is to increase freight capacity from 28 million tonnes to 48 million tonnes. It is due to commence operation in 2027 and has twin trac...

Candidates for Russian presidential election register
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Dec 2023

Putin is supported by the largest party: United Russia. But he is not a member of any party. Candidates who are in the registration process include a retired military officer who is fervently pro-war; the former Defense Minister of the Donetsk People's Republic; a local councilor belonging to the...

Under the Christmas tree: Bulgaria has withdrawn its mega-tax on Russian gas transit
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Dec 2023

In our monthly report, published yesterday, we reported about the Bulgarian €10/Mwh tax on the transit of Russian gas towards Serbia, North Macedonia and Hungary as a standing and unsolved issue, with a significant damage potential. However, the news has come since then that the tax is now withdr...

A new office, a new man
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Dec 2023

It’s all in President Bongbong Marcos’ Executive Order (EO) No. 49. The Order created the Office of the Special Assistant to the President for Investment and Economic Affairs (OSAPIEA) in the Office of the President. Its seven whereases virtually repudiated the current state of affairs in economi...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar’s budget is moderate, Angola quits OPEC, Bahrain joins Red Sea coalition, Kuwait’s new Amir hints at changes
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Dec 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent rose back to $80 despite Angola's quitting OPEC and surging US shale. * Despite renewed talks, a new Gaza ceasefire and hostage exchange is looking unlikely. * A quarter of Gazans are facing starvation, as Israel in...

Russian draftees are refused demobilization and another draft is prepared
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2023

On December 22 various media outlets published stories saying that Russia will draft more men in 2024. These will not only be the usual 18-year-olds doing their one year of military training. This will draft men up to their 40s who have already long completed their military service.  The governme...

Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth is stable but the tenge remains too strong
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 22 Dec 2023

A few days ago, the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan published its usual updates on the country’s key economic indicators. The figures indicated that the economy continued to grow at a decent pace, albeit unevenly across sectors. Earlier, the Ministry of Finance reported that tax colle...

A pyrrhic victory at the December EU Summit
HUNGARY · Report · 22 Dec 2023

Almost exactly one year after the EU Council’s blocking decision, the EU Commission endorsed the government’s reforms of the domestic judicial system, unfreezing Hungary’s access to about €10bn of its seven-year EU transfer quota, in the form of development grants from cohesion policy programs. W...

Minister Alexander proposed revisions to the budget on the expenditure side, and the legislature is likely to approve them next week. Changes in the Fiscal Law were enacted by the Cabinet.
PANAMA · In Brief · 22 Dec 2023

Cabinet Resolution N. 135 of December 18 authorized several modifications (decreases) to the Public Sector Budget presented to the Legislative Assembly on July 27, 2023. The Budget Committee announced last week to the Minister of Economy and Finance (MEF) that these modifications were unsustainab...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Mild currency pressures to extend into 2024
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 Dec 2023

In the last CCA Weekly for the year, we update our currency view on the region. Back in June, when most currencies were, in our view, at their peak vis-à-vis the US$, we argued that macroeconomic fundamentals, including moderating remittances from Russia and worsening external positions driven by...

Russian macro: Economy growing on a stable external balance and currency “detoxification”
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Dec 2023

As inflation accelerated and the CBR raised its key rate by 100 bps to 16%, Rosstat published 3Q23 statistics on the production side of GDP that confirmed that the Russian economy expanded by 5.5% y-o-y that quarter. The agency also mentioned that the national economy grew by 3.0% in 9M23. As Oct...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Dec 2023

The ruble appeared less volatile in the past couple of weeks - it fluctuated close to the R/$90 mark within a relatively narrow band. However, we see some room for its weakening in the coming months as average monthly federal budget expenditures will grow next year. Budgetary spending traditional...

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