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Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Dec 2023

Nov 29 KazTransOil: The national pipeline company estimated that in November, oil exports to Germany were on track to grow by 54% compared to the initial plan and reach 150K tons KazTransOil: In 2024, the national pipeline company intends to triple the transit of Russian oil to Uzbekistan (to 500...

Great relief - PM Orbán did not veto EU accession talks for Ukraine and Moldova
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Dec 2023 · 1 response

He did not vote for it either: he simply left the room before the vote, saying he did not want to take part in a wrong decision, but if the other 26 members wanted it to be so, he did not intend to hold them up on that road. A great relief indeed—life will be much easier for Ukraine, the EU, and ...

NBU predictably cuts prime rate by 1 ppt to 15%, future uncertain
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Dec 2023

This time, the decision of the monetary authorities aligned with expectations. On December 14th, the NBU Board predictably reduced the prime rate by 1 ppt to 15%. Following this, the "working" rates were also cut by 1 ppt: the rate for overnight deposit certificates was lowered to 15%, three-mont...

Russian macro: Budget 2024—generous spending, revenue collection challenging but manageable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Dec 2023

The 11M23 federal budget execution statistics confirmed that revenue flow remained stable, and in 2023, as a whole, will exceed not only the initial formally approved budget but also the amended one used as a base for the 2024 budgetary planning (although they didn’t differ much). The government ...

The Joint Committee on the ICMS subsidy may vote on Deputy Faria’s report, Congress will meet today to review presidential vetoes, and Flávio Dino’s appointment to the STF was approved yesterday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Dec 2023

The Joint Committee on the ICMS subsidy may vote on Deputy Luiz Fernando Faria's (PSD-MG) report today. He made a series of changes to the text submitted by the government, to make the rules more lenient for companies. The National Congress will meet today to discuss presidential vetoes. One of t...

Slide Presentation - Argentina: What to expect from the Milei administration
ARGENTINA · Report · 14 Dec 2023

Gain insights on Argentina's new administration so you can gauge how the change in leadership will impact the country’s macro outlook and political agenda—all with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Argentina: What to expect from the Milei administration".

Waiting for a new constitution
CHILE · In Brief · 14 Dec 2023

The results of Sunday’s constitutional referendum are anyone’s guess. Most polls have consistently showed that Chileans will reject the most recent proposal. But four years after the 2019 protests which led to a seemingly endless constitutional debate, there is a sense of constitutional and elect...

Russia agrees lithium deal with Bolivia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2023

On December 13 the two countries signed an agreement to allow Uranium One Group to buy lithium from Bolivia. Lithium is a vital component in batteries and electrical vehicle parts. Rosatom (the Russian atomic energy company) is the parent company of Uranium One Group. Uranium One Group beat 6 oth...

Central Bank of Uzbekistan offers no surprises, keeps policy rate unchanged at 14.0 percent
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 14 Dec 2023

The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 14.0 percent as expected. There was no surprise in this decision given the evolution of price growth, which has been the highest in our CCA space, and the moderately hawkish message that monetary authorities have been consistently sending to the market. Th...

Azerbaijan early election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2023

On December 7 Baku said the presidential election will be held in February 2024.  The election is being called early because there are favorable conditions due to the success in regaining Nagorno-Karabakh. The government may well foresee economic difficulties in late 2024 so wants the election ou...

White smoke from Brussels - the Commission unblocked access to €10.2bn of cohesion policy grants today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Dec 2023

Almost exactly one year after the EU Council's blocking decision, the EU Commission today announced the partial unblocking of the government's access to the cohesion policy development grants earmarked for Hungary in the EU's medium-term budget for 2021-2027. Just as widely expected for the last ...

Economic growth remains stable
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Dec 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator grew by 4.8% y-o-y in 11M23, which is more or less on par with the y-o-y growth in the previous periods (4.6% in 9M23 and 4.9% in 10M23 – both y-o-y). This indicator measures economic activity in the six major sectors of the...

The Senate finalized the vote on the online sports betting bill, Deputy Ribeiro may submit his report on Tax Reform today, and the CCJ will hold a confirmation hearing on Minister Flávio Dino
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2023

Yesterday, the plenary of the Federal Senate finalized the vote on the bill that regulates online sports betting. The text will now return to the House for further analysis. Today, Deputy Luiz Fernando Faria (PSD-MG), rapporteur of the provisional measure (MP) on the ICMS subsidy, may also submit...

November's CPI expected to reach -0.1% and 3.5% y/y
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Dec 2023

Contrary to our initial expectations, the CBS decided to measure the “travel abroad” item in November (flights, hotels, etc) despite the 80% decline in Israelis traveling abroad. This means that the sharp shekel appreciation (4.3% against the dollar) will push the November CPI print down sharply....

Zelensky meets World Bank and IMF
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2023

On December 11 the Ukrainian President met the heads of these two institutions in Washington DC. Ukraine is keen to secure more loans from these Western-dominated institutions. This is crucial because donations from European countries and the US are in serious doubt. The IMF approved USD 900 mill...

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