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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

November’s low CPI supports monetary loosening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Dec 2023

Inflation surprises on the downside Headline inflation declined by 0.3% m/m (expectations were for -0.1%) and slowed to 3.3% y/y from 3.7% last month. Core inflation slowed to 2.9% y/y from 3.5% last month due to a sharp moderation in housing rental (OER) prices to 3.6% y/y from 4.9%. The breakou...

Correction: The little book of silver linings
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Dec 2023

Please note that Table 1 in our quarterly/forecast report that was sent yesterday with the above title has been corrected to include the right policy and benchmark rate forecasts for 2024, which are now consistent with the text. The original dispatch, as we've just noticed, had an earlier version...

Inflation cooldown in 2024 rests on oil and politics
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Dec 2023

In November, thanks to near stability in the parallel exchange rate (up by only 1.3 percent), the pace of monthly inflation slowed to 3.5 percent from the 5.9-percent rate observed in October. The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) intervened aggressively in the foreign exchange markets during the f...

Fiscal déjà vu
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Dec 2023

Last November the government had to resort to a loan from Corporacion Financiera Nacional to obtain $392 million to pay public sector salaries. This is an operation that is not at all clear as it is registered as bonds in the Central Bank. Such a situation was normal during the 1990s, but it seem...

The little book of silver linings
TURKEY · Forecast · 15 Dec 2023 · 1 response

Since the aftermath of the May 2023 elections, there has been visible improvement in policies, which led to tangible gains, more so than we had expected. Among others, the CBRT reserves have improved, as the so-called “KKM” accounts have declined notably; the budget deficit is set to finish the y...

Health care heads for Never Never Land
COLOMBIA · Report · 15 Dec 2023 · 1 response

The government’s healthcare reform proposal has survived its first crucial test in Congress: it was finally approved by the House on December 5th. Now it will be reviewed by the Senate, where harder discussions will take place in March. Though this is a positive for the government, a formal step ...

The current account surplus narrows in narrows in November amid lower oil price
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023

The Russian Central Bank reported that, according to its flash estimates, the current account surplus narrowed in November to $4.3 bn. In October it was $4.9bn and in 3Q23 - $17.0 bn. The trade surplus also narrowed in November and reached $8.4 bn (in October, it was $9.4 bn). The regulator just ...

Webinar replay - Argentina: What to expect from the Milei administration
ARGENTINA · Report · 15 Dec 2023

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on Argentina's new administration so you can gauge how the change in leadership will impact the country’s macro outlook and political agenda.

Lula’s veto of the payroll tax relief was overturned, the ICMS MP should be approved by the end of next week, and next week is the final week of activity before Congress recesses
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2023

President Lula's veto of the bill dealing with payroll tax relief was overturned. The votes, both in the House and the Senate, were significant. After intense negotiations, the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), postponed the analysis of ICMS subsidies provisional measure (MP 1185/23) a...

GULF WEEKLY: COP28 targets transition from fossil fuels, US vetoes UAE’s ceasefire resolution, Dubai launches new sovereign fund
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Dec 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The final COP28 text included an historic, albeit qualified, call to transition from fossil fuels. * Oil is headed for its first price increase in two months, on a dovish Fed and weaker dollar. * Biden called Israel’s bom...

Rate cut in January appears realistic
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023

Inflation in November surprises on the downside The CPI in November declined by 0.3% m/m (expectations were for -0.1%) and slowed to 3.3% y/y from 3.7% y/y, Core inflation slowed to 2.9% y/y from 3.5% last month. The downside surprises came from the “travel abroad” item which decline by 5.7% (we ...

Topic of the week: Election carousel
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Dec 2023

The world may be justifiably focused on the elections in the US and Russia next year, but 2024 is now shaping up to be a hot election year for the South Caucasus, as well. While the parliamentary elections in Georgia were in any case scheduled to take place in the fall, President Aliyev has decid...

EU opens membership talks with Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023

On December 14, to the surprise of some, the European Council decided that the process will begin for Ukraine and Moldova. Many had anticipated that Hungary would veto this. Perhaps the EU made the decision to buoy up Ukrainian morale as Western aid is diminishing.  Zelensky hailed the news as a ...

Putin's live press conference
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023

On December 14 he held his annual press conference cum phone-in. In theory, members of the public call in and they are randomly selected to speak to the president live on air. The 2023 edition was not as masterful as those of several years ago.  Putin said that the war would go on until Russia ac...

EU opens membership talks with Ukraine, history is being made right now
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023

European leaders approved to open EU membership talks with Ukraine on December 14th, marking another historic day for the nation. This decision signifies that Ukraine's integration into the EU is not just a dream held by a few but is actively supported by the political leaders of EU member states...

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