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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Zelenskiy attempts to remove the Head of the Constitutional court after scandalous records released
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Dec 2020

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy ordered to remove the Head of the Constitutional court Oleksandr Tupytskiy from his position for two months. Mr. Tupytskiy will remain a judge of the Constitutional court but he will not execute his duties for two months, the President Office explains. This move is t...

Vaccination begins in Belarus as Russia mulls using Western vaccines
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2020

On December 29 Belarus commenced providing V to the population. It is the first non-Russian country to do so. There have been 190 000 cases of coronavirus and 1 400 deaths. The low death toll has met with much scepticism. Minsk will vaccinate doctors, nurses and teachers before others. Belarus ne...

Hungary using Russian coronavirus vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2020

On December 28 Hungary took delivery of 6 000 doses of Sputnik V. Budapest is more pro-Moscow than any other EU state. Hungary is the first EU country to receive Sputnik V. The EU has not yet approved it. Hungary also has the EU's vaccine and is using it. Hungary might even start producing Sputni...

Russia’s macro: Weathering the 2020 storm, looking for tipping points ahead
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Dec 2020

A year ago, we expected moderate GDP growth in 2020, a kind of muddling through seen in the past years. Inflation was supposed to decelerate slightly from the 3% reached in 2019. Hence we expected the key rate to be gradually cut by at least 100 bps. The current account and the federal budget bal...

More problems for Ant
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Dec 2020

This report is a quick comment on the latest statement by the PBOC on Ant. The Wall Street Journal Sunday reported that Ant is being forced out of the lending business. And that’s not the only encroachment on the fintech sector. According to Foreign Policy magazine (quoted by Business Insider), t...

Despite rapid and massive vaccinations, severe limitations on activity imposed
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Dec 2020

Weekly macro highlightsCorona: yesterday evening Israel entered its third closure, closing all stores except for food/pharma and allowing only deliveries from restaurants. Mobility will be limited to 1km from home. This closure is expected to continue for three weeks at least, until the number of...

Russia has 3 million COVID cases
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Dec 2020

On December 26 it was announced that a new milestone has been passed in the pandemic. Russia has the 4th highest number of cases on Earth. The government is still determined not to reintroduce nationwide lockdown. There are some regional lockdowns. 54,000 Russians have died of the virus. This is ...

Argentina licenses Sputnik V
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Dec 2020

On December 23 Buenos Aires approved the Russian coronavirus vaccine. No other country in Latin America has done so. The first batch of 25 million doses of the vaccine are arriving in Argentina on December 24. The Argentina authorization is an ''emergency'' one as in they have not subjected Sputn...

Bad economic and epidemiological news at the end of the year: the slippery road ahead
PANAMA · Report · 24 Dec 2020

Panama is the worst performing economy in Latin America, except perhaps for Venezuela. The first semester drop in GDP (-18.9%) was larger than the second worst, Peru (-17.3%), and twice the regional average of -8.4%. The third quarter followed the same pattern: -23.6% reduction in activity, where...

Exports are surging
CHINA · Report · 24 Dec 2020

Growth continues to be strong. Industrial output rose 7% y/y in November, reaching its fastest growth rate since April. Investment rose 2.6% y/y, and was up 0.8 pps from October. Consumption was the worst-hit macro variable of the pandemic. But retail sales of social consumption goods recovered ...

Essential CIS Politics: December 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 24 Dec 2020

• Russia has begun to vaccine the vulnerable against coronavirus despite doubts about Sputnik V. • E-commerce is surging in Russia. Ozon’s IPO is an example of this. • Peace is insecure between Armenia and Azerbaijan despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers. • Kazakhstan has begun a parli...

MPC: Good delivery, but next step still uncertain
TURKEY · Report · 24 Dec 2020

The Monetary Policy Committee hiked the policy rate (weekly-repo) by 200 bps today, some 50 bps higher than the median forecast, to 17% (see chart). Importantly, the language on inflation has also turned more hawkish, with clear emphases on the “continuation” of adverse inflation dynamics. On the...

​GULF WEEKLY: Oman reforms subsidies, Dubai Q2 GDP -18%, vaccines roll out
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Dec 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * JCPOA foreign ministers and House Democrats support a speedy US return to the deal. * Qatar and Bahrain made encouraging comments related to resolving the Gulf rift. * Ho...

The president’s lack of leadership, and the VP’s authoritarian and leftist stance, feeds economic pessimism
ARGENTINA · Report · 23 Dec 2020

Key health and economic indicators published after we posted our last Quarterly forecast show some improvement. The number of COVID-19 infections fell in November, and the first two weeks of December. GDP and employment preliminary estimates by INDEC for Q3 show a stronger-than-expected recovery....

OFZ: Expecting foreign demand in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Dec 2020

Today the Finance Ministry conducted the last OFZ primary auction in 2020. Significant FX market volatility and the quickly setting holiday mood influenced the government’s decision to offer the symbolic R10.7 bln of inflation-linker, which was more than 3 times oversubscribed. As a result the ag...

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