GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Industrial output was up 5.6% y/y, up 0.8 pps from July, reaching the average growth rate of 2019. We expect growth might slightly exceed the pre-pandemic level for the rest of the year. Investment fell -0.3% y/y January-August, up 1.3 pps from previous months. The driving force is switching from...

Is the EU sanctions threat over?

TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Sep 2020

EU’s extraordinary leaders’ summit scheduled for this weekend was postponed for a week on account of Council President Charles Michel being in COVID-19 quarantine, which gives Turkey, EU and the anti-Turkey hardliners to work out a compromise in the interim. Despite press reports to the contrary,...

Government bets on exemption and reforms

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2020

After a meeting with President Jair Bolsonaro and members of the government’s political and economic wings, the Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, said that the country must extend companies’ payroll tax exemption. And, for that reason, it will need to look for “alternative taxes”. Paulo G...

US sanctions on "Putin's chef"

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2020

On September 23 the US Treasury imposed sanctions on more people and organizations close to Putin. The ostensible reason is for meddling in US elections. Secretary Mnuchin accused Prigozhin of being behind nefarious anti-US activity across the globe. The US already had sanctions against Yevgeny P...

Lukashenka inaugurated

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2020

Belarus inaugurated Lukashenka for his 6th consecutive term. The ceremony was not announced in advance. Usually the event is trailed and broadcast live on TV.The public was taken by surprise. Small spontaneous protests took place.

Russia and the West: Recent developments seal the split; economy to adjust

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Sep 2020

The Russian ruble remained under pressure for some time, aggravated recently by fears of the COVID-19 pandemic's regaining momentum (both in Russia and Western Europe) and potential new sanctions against Russia. It looks as though sanctions are mounting on Russia permanently, so the pressure on t...

Russia's gold reserves highest ever

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2020

On September 22 it was reported that Russian banks increased their gold reserves by 25% in August. Reserves are now 121 tonnes. That is 10% greater than the previous all-time high in 2019. Gold reserves are now worth 7.5 billion, so said the Central Bank of Russia.The rise in gold reserves could ...

KUWAIT: Moody’s downgrades two notches as politics threaten liquidity

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Sep 2020 · 1 response

The downgrade came amidst an impasse between the government and parliament about financing the large deficit, either through a debt law or by drawing on sovereign wealth. This is part of broader governance challenges that make it nearly impossible to implement fiscal reform. We see a potential sc...

Aeroflot domestic passengers back to normal numbers

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2020

On September 21 Aeroflot published data showing that their domestic passenger numbers in August 2020 were almost as high as in August 2019. That was 3.6 million. Russia's national airline still has far fewer international passengers than is usual for the time of year. It is 90% down YoY. As borde...

Yandex buying a bank

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2020

On September 21 it was announced in the London Stock Exchange that Yandex is purchasing a new Russian bank called Tinkoff. The price is USD 5.5 billion. The agreement has not yet been inked. Tinkoff shareholders have to vote on it.Yandex will buy Tinkoff shares for USD 27.64 apiece. That is a 6% ...

Bolsonaro’s speech at the UN prioritizes environmental policy and the pandemic

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Sep 2020

During his opening speech at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly, President Jair Bolsonaro sought to address two issues for which Brazil is highly criticized in the international community: environmental policy and management of the coronavirus pandemic. It was a defensive speech, stating th...

ECJ approves sanctions on Russia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Sep 2020

The European Court of Justice ruled on September 17 that restrictive measures on Russian hydrocarbons are lawful. These are sanctions in retaliation for Russian actions viz. Ukraine. The ECJ is the supreme court of the European Union. The sanctions have been in place since 2014. EU countries cann...

Today's Monetary Council reflected a somewhat awkward situation

HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Sep 2020

In the first place, this was present in the revised numbers of the MNB's macro forecast, as today's rate-setting meeting was one to discuss the quarterly inflation report, the details of which will be made available on Thursday this week. The Bank's GDP growth forecast for this year was cut very ...

The Fiscal Risk Clouding the Horizon

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 22 Sep 2020

The quality of a projection depends on the reliability of the indications given by the government about its economic policy bearings. If it respects the spending cap and wins approval of new reforms that strengthen the fiscal anchor, the economic recovery will be facilitated. But the speed of the...

China virus data – week ending September 21, 2020

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 Sep 2020

There was a softening on the retail side, with slower auto and property sales, and a fall in metro rail activity. Film attendance trended higher for most of the week, which is positive for continued confidence in domestic safety measures. Traffic congestion was higher, as well.