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CCA Highlights: Armenia grows by 8.7% in 2023, Azerbaijan's growth finally accelerates in Jan, Georgia suffers large drop in Jan exports, Uzbekistan modernizes monetary transmission mechanism
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Feb 2024 · 1 response

We comment on the key recent macro events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: 2023 posts 8.7 percent GDP growth Armenia: 2023 foreign trade deficit widens Armenia: REER inches down in Dec, but still runs in overvaluation mode Armenia: CB publishes minutes from Jan 30th rates meeting ...

A rate cut today appears likely
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Feb 2024

1. We expect a rate cut today on the back of low inflation, a strong shekel and only a partial recovery in activity. 2. Economic indicators reflect an improvement in growth, while the lack of Palestinian workers and the large number of evacuees are slowing growth. 3. The supply/demand dynam...

Rate cut today (Monday) appears likely
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Feb 2024

A rate cut today is our base forecast: After some hesitation last week, we expect a cut today. Consensus is divided according to Bloomberg (11 expect a rate cut, 6 expect hold). A rate cut is supported by low and decelerating inflation, a strong shekel and only a partial recovery in economic grow...

More on local elections and reserves
TURKEY · Report · 25 Feb 2024

With 5 weeks left to the polling day, the municipal election race is heating up, already witnessing trend reversals. Poll results show CHP incumbents ahead in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. President Erdogan has a decisive propaganda advantage on opposition rivals, but he has two significant weaknes...

Armenia suspends membership in Russian led military alliance
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2024

On February 23 Prime Minister Pashinyan said that his country had taken the decision regarding the 6-member Collective Security Treaty Organization. The 6 CSTO members are all former Soviet republics. The CSTO is Russia's equivalent of NATO. Armenia refused to send a delegate to the CSTO summit i...

US, EU and UK sanction Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Feb 2024

On February 23 Biden said the package is because of the death of Navalny and the war in Ukraine. Biden again urged the US Congress to pass the USD 60 billion aid package for Ukraine. He noted that the Republican Congressmen who are blocking the aid package are indirectly assisting Russia. Biden s...

GULF WEEKLY: PIF to hike capital deployment, Alat’s first deals, Turkey-ADQ sukuk on hold, Qatar’s Gaza mediation resumes
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Feb 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states addressed the ICJ hearing on Israel’s occupation (requested by the UNGA in 2022). * Hostage release talks mediated by Qatar/US/Egypt are resuming in Paris today. * Inflation in January was higher in Kuwait (3....

Lula met with party leaders of the House to improve their relationship, Lira should meet with party leaders next week to discuss the presidencies of the House committees, and the 2023 GDP result will be published next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2024

Yesterday, President Lula met with the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and representatives of 12 parties. The objective of the meeting was to improve dialogue between the Executive and Legislative branches. Next week, a meeting is scheduled between Arthur Lira (PP-AL) and party leade...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Energy independence is a key limitation to Uzbekistan's ambitious growth objectives
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 23 Feb 2024 · 1 response

Unfortunately, this week brought painful memories from last winter, when severe cold spells caused electricity blackouts and temporary closures of key enterprises. Low temperatures led to a drop in gas pressure in Uzbekistan’s main gas pipelines, which, in turn, brought about a number of key acci...

The National Bank of Kazakhstan cuts the base rate by 50 bps
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Feb 2024

The NBK cut the base rate to 14.75%, i.e., by 50 bps, quoting falling inflation expectations as a key factor that triggered this decision. The regulator also referred to falling global food prices. Note that in January, inflation fell to 9.5% y-o-y while m-o-m inflation remained elevated (0.8% m-...

Are these the dog days of fiscal consolidation?
COLOMBIA · Report · 22 Feb 2024 · 1 response

President Gustavo Petro uses the expression “golpe blando” to mean a style of soft coup-d’état that doesn’t involve force, massive street demonstrations or the actual ouster of a president. Rather, under this concept, the seizure of power can occur subtly, via legal initiatives, investigations fo...

On a wait-and-see mode
TURKEY · Report · 22 Feb 2024

The CBRT/MPC kept the policy rate at 45% today, as expected. There were a number of additions and changes to the statement, which we highlight/comment on in our report. On a relatively minor note, there is now a relatively lengthy sentence on domestic demand conditions, which we read as an ack...

Lithuania restricts train travel to and from Russian exclave
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Feb 2024

On February 22 the announcement was made that trains going from Russia through Lithuania to the Russian exclave Kaliningrad will not be allowed to pick up or drop off passengers. The rule will take effect from March 1. Lithuania is also closing two border crossings with Belarus. It closed another...

Haddad will look into the Perse program, Lula will meet with party leaders of the House to improve their relationship, and Flavio Dino takes office as a justice of the STF
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Feb 2024

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, said he will look closely into Perse, a program that funds the events sector. Fraud was identified in the program, whose expenses exceeded R$17 billion. This evening, President Lula will meet with the party leaders of the House and the president of the Ho...

Budget 2024 underscores South Africa's fiscal challenges against the backdrop of a marked economic slowdown
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Feb 2024

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana yesterday delivered Budget 2024, which also represented the last Budget of the 6th South African democratic administration. In his speech, the Minister made it clear that the biggest challenge to the fiscus is that “the size of the pie is not growing fast enough ...

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