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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Apr 28
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA IN FOCUS: US RELATIONS, CANAL STRATEGY AND FI...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Disinflation Continues
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Feb 2024
In January, inflation slowed down for the fourth month in a row to 1.7 percent from 3.0 percent in December. Had it not been for increases in services—chiefly recreation and basic services—inflation would have come in lower still. Food prices, with their weight of nearly 50 percent in our basket,...
Bolsonaro has called for a demonstration on February 25 that he hopes will establish him as a significant electoral player, and his supporters seem to be organizing themselves to attend
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Feb 2024
President Jair Bolsonaro is calling for a demonstration on February 25 so that he can defend himself against accusations of an attempted coup d'état. He believes this would be a demonstration in defense of the democratic rule of law. It appears that his supporters are organizing themselves to att...
Balancing the books, shifting the landscape: the NFPS deficit and Martinelli's disqualification
PANAMA · Report · 15 Feb 2024 · 1 response
Despite having to resort to accounting artifices, the government upheld the fiscal ceiling, as highlighted by credit rating agencies and analysts. In 2022, the Non-Financial Public Sector deficit was 3.98% (when the legal limit was 4.0%), and in 2023, it fell below the required 3.0%. In the last ...
Russian macro 2024: Adjusting to new realities may be challenging as realities change
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 14 Feb 2024
It turned out that Russia’s 2023 economic growth looked decent, as its nominal GDP exceeded R171 trln and grew by 3.6% in real terms according to Rosstat’s preliminary estimates. Eventually, after a series of revisions, the nominal figure may be even higher—as has happened repeatedly in the past....
Russia issues arrest warrant for Estonian Prime Minister
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Feb 2024
On February 13 this unprecedented move was made against Kaja Kallas. Kallas advocated for the removal of a Soviet monument in Estonia. Estonia is a former Soviet republic and has a significant Russian minority. It is an EU and NATO member and has been vociferous in support of Ukraine. The arrest...
The Signs of Economic Activity and Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Feb 2024
For inflation to converge to the target, it is necessary for economic activity to decelerate sufficiently for inflation expectations to equal the target. Although after the strong result observed in November (mainly due to Black Friday promotions), real retail sales cooled, our models indicate th...
Q4 GDP came out even weaker than expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Feb 2024
This morning, KSH reported its first estimate for Q4 GDP growth at 0% qoq, 0.4% yoy, implying a 0.8% decrease of GDP in full-year 2023, following 4.6% growth in 2022, all in real terms, on seasonally and day-adjusted basis. As usual, details have not been released at this stage; KSH made only a v...
President Boluarte reshuffled her Cabinet as anticipated
PERU · In Brief · 13 Feb 2024 · 6 responses
Tonight President Dina Boluarte reshuffled her Cabinet and replaced the following ministers: Economy and Finance, Alex Contreras; Defense, Jorge Luis Chavez; Energy and Mines, Óscar Vera; and Environment, Albina Ruiz. She has taken oath of office this afternoon from the new ministers: José Arista...
Cabinet crisis persists; Chancay port could create a Pacific hub; BCRP to cut 125bp in 2024
PERU · Report · 13 Feb 2024
In this report we cover politics, the economy and markets. First, we discuss the crisis gripping President Dina Boluarte’s Cabinet. In our last report, we argued that Boluarte may opt for a reshuffle – but as of this writing, that had not happened. As a consequence of her failure to act, the Cab...
Economics: Recent economic data anticipate early 2024 slowdown
MEXICO · Report · 13 Feb 2024
Preliminary fourth-quarter GDP figures and recently released November and December economic activity indicators point to a slowdown in the early months of 2024 in the face of the contraction trend in manufacturing and the high comparison posed by a rally in construction activity that we estimate ...
A follow-up to last weekend's political story, and a preview of tomorrow's GDP data
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Feb 2024
As we reported on President Novak's sudden resignation on Sunday, we wrote that the case will not have immediate consequences on investors. This still looks correct, yet there has surfaced since then a completely unusual story, which may carry a currently unknown but potentially material signific...
Shrinking trade deficit is shekel positive, at least until imports recover
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Feb 2024
Trade deficit declines sharply In January, the trade deficit reached 1.4bn USD compared to 2.0bn in Dec 23, and is down 58% y/y with exports up 5.7% and imports down 20.3% (due to slowing imports of private consumption and raw materials). In the past three months (Nov-Jan), industrial exports hav...
Politics: 20 reform proposals foreshadow less democracy and more years of AMLO rule
MEXICO · Report · 12 Feb 2024
On February 5, the anniversary of Mexico’s Constitution, which emerged from the Mexican Revolution, President López Obrador sent Congress a package of 18 constitutional and two legal reforms he says are aimed at rewriting articles introduced during the neoliberal or “neoporfirist” period. This ti...
The Year of the Dragon is supposed to be a good year
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 12 Feb 2024
Special points to highlight in this report: * One of the key issues in the Year of the Dragon is likely to be how seriously Beijing is about reining in non-productive infrastructure spending among its more highly-indebted provinces. In an announcement last month— that didn’t get as much attent...
Israel’s rating downgrade with negative outlook surprises markets and reduces the probability of a rate cut in two weeks
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Feb 2024
1. Moody’s decision to place Israel on “negative outlook” (A2) resulted in higher bond yields and a weaker shekel. 2. January’s tax revenues surprised on the upside, resulting in a fiscal surplus. 3. Business sentiment continued to improve gradually in January as the economy recovers.