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Slide Presentation: Philippines - Outlook, risks and challenges for Marcos 2.0
PHILIPPINES · Report · 29 Jan 2024

Get insight into the challenges facing the Marcos administration's sustainable economic growth goals and how the growing divides in the Philippines, the country's charter change, and territorial conflict in the West Philippine Sea will shape the country's political outlook—all with the slide pres...

EU matters, fiscal policy and tomorrow's Monetary Council
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jan 2024

The forint, which had been getting progressively weaker since Mr. Virág spoke about the possibility of faster and deeper base rate cuts on January 17, was pushed further in a negative direction on Friday, by Finance Minister Varga's saying that they will aim at reducing the fiscal deficit below 3...

Ukraine has lost 100,000 mortar shells to fraud
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2024

On January 27 the SBU (Ukrainian intelligence) said the scheme uncovered was worth USD 40 million. Ministry Defense civil servants and managers of Lviv Arsenal stole the money. Six people have been given notices of suspicion and another suspect was arrested trying to leave the country. The contra...

GDP contraction in Q423 likely to be relatively modest
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Jan 2024

Recent economic indicators have been on the positive side: The BoI Composite Index increased by 0.4% m/m in December, and November’s print was revised upwards to -0.3% from -0.7%. Real time daily data point to strong private consumption growth reaching 4% above pre-war levels, in part due to the ...

Belarus arrests 159 dissidents
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jan 2024

On January 15 the US and the European Union denounced the arrest of the oppositionists and said those taken into custody are human rights activists. Those arrested are often relatives of political prisoners and prisoners who were freed in 2023. They were arrested by the KGB on suspicion of extrem...

Armenia and Georgia sign deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jan 2024

On January 26 the two prime ministers signed an agreement in Tbilisi. The strategic partnership is about economic, transport and cultural ties. However, few specifics have been disclosed. Trade between the two was worth USD 1 billion in 2023. That seems like a small amount but Armenia has only 3 ...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar upgraded, PIF issues $5bn in bonds, Kuwait foils ISIS plot, ICJ rules on Gaza as Qatari mediation continues
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Jan 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The ICJ made a provisional ruling, and the EU criticized Netanyahu’s rejection of a Palestinian state. * Progress on a ceasefire and hostage release deal was shaken by Netanyahu’s criticism of Qatar. * US-Houthi clashes c...

President Lula’s veto of parliamentary funds was criticized by members of Congress, Lira should meet with House leaders to discuss the veto on Monday, and a proposal on the strikes may be presented next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jan 2024

President Lula's (PT) veto of a significant portion of congressional funds was poorly received among deputies and senators, and now negotiations for changes to the budget are a priority for the Planalto Palace. It is worth remembering that many congress members were counting on the funds to deliv...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Cautious easing to continue in 2024
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Jan 2024

With Uzbekistan opening up the monetary policy season in the Caucasus and Central Asia on Jan 25 by keeping its key rate unchanged, we delve into our views about how central banks will conduct their rates policy this year. While average CCA inflation peaked around mid-2022, the uncertainty su...

NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 15%, updates forecast
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Jan 2024

As expected, the NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15% on January 25th. Following a month of FX market turbulence, pausing rate cuts was a natural decision, particularly in light of the still-delayed financial support decisions from both the EU and the US for 2024. The press release sugg...

The South African Reserve Bank holds interest rates steady despite easing inflation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Jan 2024

Having gathered for its first 2024 meeting this week, the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced its interest rate decision today. And in line with the recent US Fed decision as well as market expectations, the MPC once again voted to keep the benchmark interest ra...

Russian military plane shot down by Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jan 2024

On January 24 the plane was destroyed in Russian airspace. Surprisingly, Russia acknowledged the loss and attributed it to Ukrainian action. The Ilyushin 76 crashed near Belgorod. Moscow says all on board were killed and claims that 65 were Ukrainian Prisoners of War (POWs) and 9 Russian personne...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Jan 2024

Jan 11 Trade Ministry: Kazakhstan fulfills its obligations to reduce re-exports of dual-use goods to Russia S&P: Kazakhstan exceeded the OPEC+ quota by 10K bpd in December. Jan 12 National pipeline company: Kazakhstan supplied 993K tons of oil to Germany in 2023 and plans to raise this amount to ...

MPC: Done for now
TURKEY · Report · 25 Jan 2024

The Monetary Policy Committee of the CBRT hiked the policy rate by 250 bps to 45% (see chart) and ended the tightening cycle – at least in the near term -- in line with expectations. “Taking into account the lagged impact of monetary tightening, the Committee assesses that the monetary tightness ...

The government will issue a new ordinance regarding work on holidays, Lira scheduled a meeting with leaders next week, and the Voa Brasil program should be announced by President Lula on February 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jan 2024

Yesterday, a meeting in Brasília finalized the agreement between the government, businesspeople, and workers regarding working rules for the retail sector on holidays. With the agreement, a new ordinance will be published, defining which commercial activities require and which do not require prio...

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