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Azerbaijan: Inflation continues to inch down, but remains in double digits
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 17 Jul 2023

The Jun inflation print indicates that, albeit moderating, price growth momentum remains strong. Inflation in Azerbaijan had increased substantially from the lows of 2020 (2.4 percent YoY in Oct’2020) chiefly on account of food prices, but has stabilized in 2022 and so far in 2023, having only ma...

Economic growth remains stable in June and 1H23
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jul 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly aggregate measure of economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation, and communications grew by 5.6% y-o-y in 1H23, which was well above 4.5% y-o-y reported for 5M23. It means that...

Crimea Bridge closed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2023

On July 17 Russian authorities said there was an emergency on Kerch Strait Bridge and two people had died. There are reports that there was an explosion. Russia has not said there was an attack. Russia said the road surface has been damaged. Ukraine has not commented on the bridge incident. Ukrai...

Signs of inflation moderation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jul 2023

Inflation in June surprised on the downside (as it did May) Core inflation slowed to 4.5% y/y from 4.9% in May and 5.3% in April. Prices of both goods and services (rental prices especially) have decelerated. We expect inflation to reach 2.6% in the coming year, as domestic demand slows, housing ...

Playing catch up
TURKEY · Report · 16 Jul 2023

Our politics author will write his update separately in the next 24-48 hours, because of a few emergencies he had to attend to; please accept our apologies. We start this econ-only Weekly with a preview of this Thursday’s upcoming MPC/CBRT meeting, at which we think there is again a risk of un...

Azerbaijan and Armenia negotiate in Brussels as Baku criticizes Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jul 2023

On July 15 the President of Azerbaijan met the Armenian Prime Minister. The EU facilitated the talks. This is the 6th time they have met since 2021. The President of the European Council asked the two leaders to return to Brussels in the fall of the 2023. The US had also hosted talks between them...

Wagner is and is not
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jul 2023

On July 15 Ukraine said that Wagner is in Belarus. Belarus claims that Wagner troops are training the Belarusian Army. It was reported by Belarusian oppositionists on July 14 that 60 Wagner vehicles arrived in Belarus. But there were 25,000 Wagner troops in June 2023. The June Mutiny led to the a...

Ukraine admits its counter-offensive is not succeeding
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jul 2023

On July 14 the head of the Presidential Administration said Ukraine's soldiers are not making rapid progress. Andriy Yermak acknowledged that the battles are very tough. However, he added that Western allies are not asking Ukraine to speed up. Ukraine still has not committed most of its troops to...

Putin hints he may end the Black Sea Grain Initiative
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jul 2023

On July 13 he said that no concessions have been made to Russia about the BSGI. The BSGI was signed in 2022 and has allowed Ukraine to export 32 million tons of grain as well as sunflower oil. The BSGI expires on July 18. Turkey was instrumental in getting Ukraine and Russia to sign the BSGI. The...

2023 same as 2022
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Jul 2023

According to our calculations, inflation for June reached 9.0 percent. According to the numbers of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV), it was 6.1 percent. Both estimates exceed the 5.1-percent rate observed in May. Despite the slowdown in public spending, the authorities have not been able to b...

Once more inflation came in below expectations, yet the BCRA maintains interest rates
ARGENTINA · Report · 14 Jul 2023

Despite expecting some moderation in the inflation level, June's result was, once again, undoubtedly lower than anticipated. But what makes the June result more interesting than May's outcome is that its “more benign” results cannot be explained by mere seasonal factors, and the results were mor...

Deputy Sabino expected to replace Carneiro at the Ministry of Tourism, Barroso’s statement on “defeating Bolsonarismo” caused negative reactions, and Lula said the Desenrola program should be launched next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jul 2023

The government officially invited Deputy Celso Sabino (União-PA) to replace Daniela Carneiro at the Ministry of Tourism. The government now hopes it can broaden the party's support in Congress. Celso Sabino's inauguration should take place next week. At an event of the National Union of Students ...

GULF WEEKLY: Gulf financing comes through for Pakistan and Egypt, Kuwait’s finance minister resigns, Bahrain’s current surplus narrows on weak oil output
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Jul 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil is at its highest since April, and OPEC forecasts strong demand growth in 2024. * Saudi and UAE facilitated the IMF agreement with Pakistan with $3bn in deposits. * The UAE is also contributing $800m more to help Egyp...

Topic of the week: Headwinds for external positions mount
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 Jul 2023

Balance of Payment data for 1Q23, released for all of our countries except Tajikistan, suggest that headwinds for CCA external positions are gaining strength. This is generally driven by a combination of strong GDP growth spilling into imports and an emerging picture of moderating remittances fro...

Another downside inflation surprise
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jul 2023

Another downside inflation surprise Inflation in June reflected price stability (zero change) and the annual rate declined to 4.2% y/y from 4.6% in May. There were several items which surprised on the downside including food items (up only 0.6%, half our estimate), housing prices remained nearly ...

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