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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The devil is in the details
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 May 2023

While the International Conference on Venezuela closed without an official joint declaration from the 20 participating countries, it did produce a unanimous closing call for three things. First is to "establish an electoral schedule" that considers the recommendations of the November 2021 Europea...

Unions take the initiative in pension reform, ACP land-buy delay, Torrijos to run in 2024, and civil forfeiture draft rejected (another setback for Cortizo)
PANAMA · Report · 01 May 2023

Last week, CONATO, the country's most powerful union association, presented a proposal to the Legislative Assembly to solve the short-term cash deficit of the defined-benefits sub-system (SEBD) by consolidating its assets with those of the private account sub-system. We analyze the implications ...

The labor market remains strong, and economic growth steady (in Q1)
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 May 2023

The labor market remains fairly tight The unemployment rate remained stable at 3.9% in March (similar to Feb), as 25k new job were created while labor participation increased as well. The BoI preferred category (ages 25-64) actually witnessed a decline in unemployment to 3.2% in March from 3.5% i...

From Istanbul, with confusion
TURKEY · Report · 30 Apr 2023

This week’s political essays are not very informative, because there are several technical glitches in poll averages, which the politics author uses as his primary reference material. He still remains very confident that Kilicdaroglu will cross the finish line ahead of Erdogan in the second round...

Few political surprises, as economies flag
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Apr 2023

El Salvador’s economic performance in 2023 and 2024 is confronting challenges from both abroad and at home. Global economic slowdown, distortions due to the armed conflict in Ukraine, persistent and defiant inflation and strong monetary policy measures taken by many central banks are important co...

Russian macro: manufacturing to gain importance as a driving force
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Apr 2023

Russian industrial output grew by 1.2% y-o-y in March and contracted by a mere 0.9% y-o-y in 1Q23 versus a 3.0% y-o-y contraction in 4Q22. Seasonally adjusted industrial output grew in March by 1.3% m-o-m. In the previous months, industrial growth remained negative due to the base effect caused b...

When people feel poor, they blame their President
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Apr 2023 · 2 responses

The results of Dane’s 2022 Quality of Life Survey on perceived poverty should worry the government. Perceived poverty jumped from 37.9% in 2019 to a startling 46.7% in 2021, and then rose, yet again, to 50.6% in 2022. This last 4 pp increase leaves no doubt about families’ perception that inflati...

Justice Nunes Marques asked to review the FGTS case, three CPIs and a CPMI were created in the House and Congress, and Lula will travel to London to participate in the coronation of King Charles III
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Apr 2023

Yesterday, Justice Nunes Marques asked to review the judgment that deals with the correction of FGTS accounts. Justice Luís Roberto Barroso, of the STF, voted to equate FGTS payouts to the income from savings. There is no date for the resumption of the trial. In addition to the Joint Parliamentar...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil dips on global jitters, Saudi leads Sudan evacuations, Bahrain records deflation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Apr 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil fell further on jitters about the US and global economy, lower than before the OPEC+ cuts. * S&P put Egypt on a Negative outlook amidst worries about GCC investment and other financing. * Gulf states, notably Bahrain ...

Webinar replay: Colombia political update
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Apr 2023

Visit the our calendar page to watch our webinar featuring Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar discussing Colombia's cabinet changes, the ousting of Finance Minister Jose Antonio Ocampo and the implications and impact on Colombia's outlook.

Turkey webinar replay: Approaching the election of the century
TURKEY · Report · 28 Apr 2023

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada discussing Turkey's current economic and political situation as Turkey approaches the most consequential elections of its modern history and the likely impact of the election on Turkey's outlook.

Russia prepares to repel Ukrainian offensive
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Apr 2023

Russia has strengthened its multilayered defenses. Ukraine's counter offensive is expected in May 2023. By then the spring will have thawed out the mud. Russian lines are over 800 km long. Russia's offensive has almost petered out. Russia holds most of Bakhmut but was supposed to have taken the e...

CFK presented her economic views but avoided public requests to run for president
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023

This Thursday, Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) participated in the inauguration of the “Escuela Justicialista - Nestor Kirchner” (i.e. the School of Peronism - NK). CFK defined it as a school of “political, more than technical education” (would that be indoctrination?). She ga...

Infrastructure, anyone?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023

In Washington for the World Bank / IMF Spring meetings earlier this month, the country’s economic managers turned the spotlight on infrastructure opportunities in the Philippines under the Marcos administration. In a half-day briefing that focused on the economy’s macro fundamentals and investmen...

Ukrainians kill collaborators
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023

On April 25 a police officer in Melitopol was killed by a bomb and one other police officer was injured. The Ukrainian Mayor of the city fled to Ukrainian controlled territory in 2022. He commented that the dead man was a Ukrainian police officer who had gone over to the side the invaders. Russia...

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