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Growth with Fiscal Discipline Against a Backdrop of a Weak Global Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Nov 2022

Just like in his first term, starting in 2003, the results of Lula’s term beginning in 2023 will depend on two conditions: a) the behavior of the international economy; and b) overcoming the challenge imposed by the fiscal situation. The main differences are that in 2003, the international econom...

Power grids attacked; Kherson liberated; plans for 2023
UKRAINE · Report · 16 Nov 2022

The liberation of Kherson in mid-November was a turning point in Russia’s war. In February, everyone wondered how quickly Ukraine would fall, but through spring the key element was the ability of Ukraine’s Armed Forces to withstand Russia’s “artillery firewall.” By summer, everyone was wondering ...

The Transition PEC may be submitted today, the PL may still question the results of the election, and Lula is in Egypt for the COP27
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Nov 2022

A meeting is scheduled for today between Senator Marcelo Castro (MDB-PI), rapporteur of the Budget and the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC), and party leaders. The PEC may still be submitted today. Yesterday, a document regarding electronic voting machines requested by the PL wa...

Table of Six summit: More good than bad news
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Nov 2022

The leaders of six opposition parties constituting the main stream opposition, dubbed the Table of Six (ToS) met for 8 hours on Monday night, to discuss a new constitution, joint economic program and coalition formation, as well as the implications of the tragic terror strike in Beyoglu, Istanbul...

Polish media claims Poland was hit by Russian missiles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Nov 2022

On November 15 a Polish media outlet claimed that two Russian missiles hit Poland near the Ukraine border, killing two people. Poland called an emergency meeting of its security council. The government has not officially claimed that Poland was hit by Russian missiles. It could have been Ukrainia...

October’s CPI surprises on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Nov 2022

Inflation in October came in at 0.6% m/m (5.1% y/y up from 4.6% last month), above market expectations which were generally in the 0.4%-0.5% range. Core inflation accelerated to 5% y/y (from 4.7%). Rental prices (OER) accelerated to 5.6% y/y from 5.3%, continuing an upward trend since the beginni...

Q3 GDP: moving into recession but not so much as we have thought
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Nov 2022

GDP shrank by 0.4% qoq but grew by 4.1% yoy, by seasonally adjusted data, in Q3. This means that economy minister Nagy, who indicated a similar number a week ago, was right, whereas the MNB's so far quite reliable-looking WEAI index, on which we based our Q3 forecast, was dead wrong. The WEAI, pr...

China’s new property measures don’t address the fundamental contradiction
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Nov 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The trade and debt data releases last week, along with today’s economic data, indicate that there has been no change in October in the deterioration in the quality of Chinese growth. In fact the consumption share of growth declined in October even ...

Economics: Strong public finance data cannot hide major risks ahead
MEXICO · Report · 15 Nov 2022

Public finance’s medium term outlook has emerged as a major source of public debate with last week’s passage of the López Obrador administration’s federal spending bill (FSB) for 2023 and the release of public finance results as of September, which appear solid on the back of strong revenue growt...

A loss in central bank efficacy
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Nov 2022

Monthly inflation for October closed at 6 percent, in a sharp slowdown from September (12.0 percent) and August (16.2 percent). This slowdown occurred despite an accelerated pace of bolivar depreciation whereby the dollar spiked 8.2 percent against the bolivar in October after having gained only ...

The Kazakh economy keeps growing at around 3% with no surprises
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Nov 2022

The country's Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 10M22 the short-term indicator grew by 3.1% y-o-y delivering no major surprises – as opposed to smaller and less industrialized countries, such as Georgian and Armenia, where an inflow of Russians had much more visible effect. According...

Zelensky visits Kherson
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Nov 2022

On November 13 the president visited the city that was recently retaken by Ukraine. He said that there is evidence of 400 war crimes committed by Russia. He said on TV this included murdered civilians. Zelensky said that Russian troops looted shops and even took zoo animals as well as laying mine...

Politics: Mexican authorities struggle to respond to the exponential rise in femicides, which are still vastly underreported
MEXICO · Report · 14 Nov 2022

Homicide statistics show that the number of women murder victims has been climbing since 2007, when a thousand such deaths were registered. That toll had climbed to around 4,000 by 2021, the most recent year for which data has been available from Inegi, the source of the most complete records. Th...

Lula prioritizes social issues and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2022

The rapporteur of the Transition PEC in the Senate, Marcelo Castro (MDB-PI), will discuss the terms of the proposal with party leaders. He should also present his preliminary report on the Federal Budget. President-elect Lula participates in meetings at the COP27, in Egypt. He will return on Nove...

Politics are winning over economics
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Nov 2022

Bloomberg just published a story about significant new support for China’s property market. Measures announced thus far include asking banks to extend 1 trillion yuan in emergency support for the property market by end-2022, reducing interest rates, and, according to Bloomberg reporting, develope...

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