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Russia agrees to revive the grain deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2022

On November 2 Moscow said that it was rejoining the deal that allows Ukrainian food to be shipped via the Black Sea. But Putin warned that Russia will end the deal if it is provoked. Russia said it was allowing the deal to be reanimated since it is satisfied with promises from Ukraine not to use ...

Essential CIS Politics: November 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Nov 2022

* Russia held referenda in East Ukraine and formally annexed four regions before evacuating many Kherson citizens. * Russia mobilized 300,000 more men; some have reached the front and slowed Ukraine’s advance. * Russia carried out nuclear weapons drills, but NATO experts do not think t...

Courting chaos
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Nov 2022

A central tenet of Colombian economic policy is that a finance minister’s economic announcements always have the full backing of the president. That is why, before making key announcements or presenting reforms, the minister always secures the president’s blessing. He then speaks on the president...

What will happen if the deal gets signed?
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Nov 2022

It looks like a first agreement in the ongoing negotiations between the Maduro government and the Unitary Platform is about to be signed. Tied to it would be the approval of a license by the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) allowing Chevron to expand its operations in Venez...

Leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia meet in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Nov 2022

On October 31 Putin met the two leaders in Sochi, Russia. He said that he wanted to arrange a permanent peace between the two countries. He said that there were some  issues that had not been resolved. Armenia and Azerbaijan issued a joint communique after the talks in which they vowed not to use...

New increase in the monetary policy rate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Nov 2022

Yesterday the Central Bank increased the monetary policy rate by 25 basis points, going from 8.25% to 8.50% per year. The new rate for the permanent facility for liquidity expansion (1-day repos) is 9.00% per year, while the new interest-bearing deposit rate (Overnight) is 8.00% per year. The Cen...

Bolsonaro is expected to address the results of the election today, Lula begins negotiations to build his ministerial team, and truck drivers are still blocking highways to protest Bolsonaro’s defeat
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Nov 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro should quote the Armed Forces’ report on the electoral process. He will not claim fraud, but he is expected to criticize some decisions of the Superior Electoral Court against his campaign. Some names for Lula's ministerial team are already being reviewed. The next Minist...

Russian macro: The 2023 economic outlook increasingly uncertain as GDP contraction is moderate in 2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Nov 2022

In mid-summer, it became clear that Russia’s GDP could contract less this year compared to the earlier thinking - accounting for the magnitude of the geopolitical shock the country has faced (or chosen). The effect turned out to be less significant than was considered right after the start of the...

Politics: Democracy under siege by the presidential electoral reform proposal
MEXICO · Report · 01 Nov 2022

President López Obrador’s governing project is proving increasingly costly for the country in practically every sphere, including security, health, education, the environment and others. Through the first four years of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s presidency, there has been a concerted effort to...

Economic data confirm our projections for 2022 and 2023. The financial deficit of the defined benefit pension system is the most pressing issue of public policy in the next 18 months.
PANAMA · Report · 31 Oct 2022

The first half of 2022 presented critical messages. First, the comparison of GDP growth in the first six months of 2022 with the same period in 2021 (11.8%) confirms that the economy continues to proceed along a path to recovery. However, activity contracted by 0.5% in the first half of 2022 vis-...

Economics: Considerable risks from the revised Pacic anti-inflation accord, with scant effect expected in prices
MEXICO · Report · 31 Oct 2022

This past October 19, the federal government formally decreed a second iteration of its Pacic Anti-inflation and Cost of Living Accord, known as "Pacic 2", with the corresponding decree's being published in the federal daily gazette. In addition to continuing to exempt selected goods from import ...

Russia is taking out Ukraine's energy infrastructure
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Oct 2022

On October 31 Russia said it had launched many successful missile and bomb attacks on power stations. Ukraine confirmed this. Before October 21 over a third of Ukraine's energy production had been put out of operation. If attacks continue at this rate Ukraine will lose all energy by the end of No...

Growth is slowly recovering
CHINA · Report · 31 Oct 2022

Growth is slowly recovering, but pressure looms. In Q3, GDP rose 3.9% y/y, up 3.5 pps from Q2, mainly increased by infrastructure investment. Industrial output grew 4.8% y/y in Q3, up 4.1 pps from Q2. In particular, it rose 6.3% y/y in September, up 2.1 pps from August, leading the first three qu...

Monetary Policy, Inflation and Effects on Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Oct 2022

At its last meeting, the COPOM kept the SELIC rate at 13.75% a year. In the communiqué about this decision, the committee members repeated the alerts expressed after the meeting in September, regarding the uncertainties over the fiscal framework, the high likelihood that the output gap was narrow...

Another rate hike
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Oct 2022 · 1 response

For the past several months, Indonesia's economy has been hit by rising inflation. The Central Board of Statistics reported early this month on the Consumers Price Index for the month of September 2022, which registered inflation of 1.17%, a relatively high monthly rate. Inflation was broad based...

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