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​Opposition Front: 2nd declaration for democracy leaves a lot to be desired
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 May 2022

The leaders of six parties constituting the Nation Alliance gathered a fourth time on 29 May, in a meeting that lasted over 7 hours. The end-result was a second declaration for restoring democracy in Turkey. While the declaration is a reasonable and thoughtful road map for re-democratization, it ...

Politics: Healthcare – more policy improvisation that worsens the situation
MEXICO · Report · 31 May 2022

President López Obrador’s latest effort to recruit doctors on loan from Cuba has stoked outrage within the medical sector and sparked intense debate on the deepening problems plaguing the country’s health system. These problems have been greatly magnified by the series of improvised “solutions” t...

Russians enter Severodonetsk
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 May 2022

On May 31 Russia announced that its troops had entered the city on Donbas. Ukraine confirmed this. Ukraine says 1,500 of its civilians have been killed in the assault on the city and 12,000 remain trapped in the city. It seems inevitable that Ukraine will withdraw from the city. It does not have ...

The Senate discusses the bill on essential services, the STF called a conciliation hearing for the agreement made by the Confaz regarding the ICMS tax, and the House may make progress on important bills
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 May 2022

Yesterday, the president of the Senate met with representatives of some states to discuss PLP 18, which classifies fuel, electricity, transportation and telecommunications as essential services. According to the rapporteur, the bill may be put to a vote in the next two weeks. However, there will ...

Economics: Prospects dim for a key driver of recovery as manufacturing demand is expected to soften on main fronts
MEXICO · Report · 31 May 2022

As the only GDP component to boast a significant recovery, manufacturing has contributed greatly to the economic reactivation in Mexico. Most manufacturing subsectors have enjoyed strong growth in recent quarters even as some especially crucial industries that acted as drivers during some of the ...

Here comes the son
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 31 May 2022

A new administration with an exceptional majority electoral mandate will take office on June 30. So far, it has handed the business community what it wanted, a knowledgeable and experienced economic team that could hit the ground running. This is enough for even those strongly opposed to the so...

The MNB indeed raised the base rate by 50bps today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 May 2022

The base rate and the components of the interest rate corridor have been raised all by 50 bps, the base rate and the floor of the corridor to 5.9%, whereas the ceiling of the corridor to 8.9%. The MNB has said that it is going to raise the sterilisation rate by 30 bps, to 6.75%, on Thursday. More...

Kazakhstan macro: stable real effective tenge to support economic growth
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 31 May 2022

The Kazakh tenge, having stabilized at around KZT/$ 430 after the initial pandemic shock and the fall of the oil price in 2Q20, experienced another shock in recent months. Its volatility increased again as the KZT/$ moved to well over 500 in early March and then bounced back to the same KZT/$ 430...

The state of the race and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 May 2022

The House analyzes bills that may result in lower electricity prices for consumers. The PSDB discusses support for Simone Tebet’s (MDB) candidacy. The PL will broadcast electoral advertisements and should highlight government achievements. On Thursday, the IBGE publishes the GDP for the first qua...

On Q1 GDP (and a bit more)
TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2022

The Turkish GDP grew by 1.2%, q/q, and 7.3%, y/y, in the first quarter of the year (see chart), broadly in line with the consensus forecast. As regards the demand composition of growth, it is worth emphasizing at the outset that the year-on-year versus quarter-on-quarter figures yield starkly dif...

Inflation is creeping higher
INDONESIA · Report · 31 May 2022

The Indonesian economy posted encouraging results for Q1 2022. GDP grew by 5.01% year over year, above expectation. This rate of growth was almost the same as the annual rate of growth achieved in Q4 2021 of 5.02%. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy contracted by 0.96%. Howe...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 May 2022

As the war caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth month, it is evident that its costs and risks are affecting not only those on the battlefields, but the entire world. Since the start of the war, the international price of wheat has risen by more than 40% and of corn by nearly 3...

Consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 May 2022

Costa Rica´s growth will slow in 2022, but won´t stop over the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Three transmission channels will negatively impact the economy: less favorable external trade, higher international prices and tighter financial conditions. These factors are pushing growth...

The labor market continues to tighten
ISRAEL · Report · 31 May 2022

1. The labor market continues to tighten as job vacancies hit record levels, supportive of wage pressure. 2. Private consumption growth appears to have moderated recently following the rapid growth when Covid restrictions were cancelled. 3. The Bank of Israel raised rates by 0.4% las...

EU bans most Russian oil
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 May 2022

On May 30 the European Union banned Russian oil except for when it is sold to Hungary. Hungary buys 65% of its oil from Russia. The aim is that Hungary will wean itself off Russian oil over several years. The move banks the import of two-thirds of Russian oil imports to the EU immediately. Poland...

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