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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 19 -
Brazil Economics databank May 19
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank May 21
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank May 20
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Fidesz won easily and faces all the economic and foreign policy mess currently developing
HUNGARY · Forecast · 27 Apr 2022
The governing Fidesz-KDNP alliance won the parliamentary election by a surprisingly large margin early this month. Their victory was no surprise at all, but the continuation and even a slight increase of their constitutional majority was entirely unexpected. Fidesz’s win has removed a great deal ...
The Argentine economy: a forecast for 2022 and a guess for 2023
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 27 Apr 2022
It is extremely difficult to forecast the Argentine economy for the remainder of the presidential term of Alberto Fernandez, in spite of the macroeconomic program that is being supported by the IMF through a 45 billion dollar EFF. The main difficulties originate in the new global circumstances cr...
Neither Uribe nor Petro, and of course not Duque
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022 · 1 response
In a text called “Today's Colombia”, former President César Gaviria set out to “paint the court” where he believes the government starting on August 7 will play. He starts out by admitting that his Liberal party made historical mistakes in the second half of the 1990s that led to a right-wing pha...
The House may vote on the Auxílio Brasil provisional measure today, the third way parties met again yesterday to define the candidate selection criteria, and the TCU has decided to resume the trial of the privatization of Eletrobras on May 18
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Apr 2022
The movement in favor of letting the MP expire because it has already fulfilled its purpose did not move forward. In other words, the measure will be put to a vote. The president of the House, Arthur Lira, is calling for the payment amount to be set at R$ 400, and the government is betting on Lir...
UN Secretary General in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022
On April 27 Antonio Guterres visited Putin. He had a candid discussion with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, who warned NATO that it is risking World War III.Guterres said he was on a peace mission. He said that the UN General Assembly had voted that Russia had violated Ukraine's territory and in...
Russia is ready to cut trade with the EU even more
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022
As Russia announced that the supply of gas to Poland and Bulgaria stopped, it looks as though the Russian authorities are ready to cut foreign trade with the EU even more as the country no longer needs that much euro liquidity. The euro is seen as a second-tier currency in Russia, given that the ...
Firing at Russian bases in Moldova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022
On April 27 there was firing at a Russian arms depot in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria. Russian troops have been there since 1991 against the wishes of the Moldovan Government. Ukrainian drones flew over the Russian depot there and there were explosions. 20 000 tons of ammunition a...
Russian gas cut off to Bulgaria and Poland
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022
On April 27 Russia announced that Gazprom has suspended all sales to the two EU countries. That is because they refuse to pay in RUB. The contracts state that the gas will be paid for in EUR. In March 2022 Putin said unfriendly countries had to pay in RUB. He did not at first carry out his threat...
Pandemic statistics update
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Apr 2022
We look at cinema openings nationally, traffic in Shanghai, and political opposition to Covid measures in Shanghai. We see some improvement in the film industry and signs that traffic is slowly building up. We also see that a health issue such as Covid is providing an avenue for widespread commen...
Russian telecoms suffering from sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022
Russian mobile phone networks are suffering from their heavy dependence on Western components. Maintenance and upgrades are increasingly problematic. Russia buys parts from Nokia and Ericsson as well as Chinese providers Huawei and ZTE for wireless network hardware and software. Nokia and Ericsso...
Russian civil aviation falling drastically
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022
On April 25 Moscow Vnukovo Airport furloughed many staff. A third of airport staff have been told they might be made redundant. Another Moscow airport has already done so. Passenger numbers have fallen dramatically in the last 2 months.Vnukovo Airport's traffic was down 19% Y o Y in April 2022. I...
Kazakhstan Macro: the budget is in surplus in 1Q22 as revenues exceed the plan
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022
The consolidated budget of the Republic of Kazakhstan posted a surplus in 1Q22, as the country’s finance ministry reported. This budget is a sum of the state budget and the National fund net of transfer from the latter to the former (the state budget is an aggregate of the republican and local bu...
US Secretary of State visits Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022
On April 24 Anthony Blinken and the US Secretary of Defense visited Zelensky. The US renewed its pledge of unstinting support and said that Ukraine can win if given the right weapons. The US said that its goal is to enfeeble Russia that Russia cannot threaten Eastern Europe again. The US said it ...
A few specifics from the MNB press conference
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022
A press conference indeed followed the Monetary Council's monthly rate-setting meeting of April 26. Governor Matolcsy and vice governor Virág spoke, and there was no room given to questions. Beyond generalities, a few specifics appear to be notable:1. Governor Matolcsy confirmed that the MNB is s...
MNB base rate up by 100 bps, to 5.4% today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022
The Monetary Council raised the base rate by more than we expected, but its action corresponded to the median expectation of private sector analysts. By this move, the interest rate corridor rose by 100 bps as well, to 5.4-8.4%, increasing the upward potential for the 1-week deposit rate, the eff...