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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Macroeconomic conditions and outlook in the second wave
INDIA · Report · 18 May 2021

In April, there was a dramatic “second wave” of the pandemic in India. This has been a health catastrophe, particularly for the urban rich and for rural populations. In this report, we review conditions in early 2021 and summarize present health knowledge about the second wave. We look ahead i...

Cry, Correa, cry
ECUADOR · Report · 18 May 2021

“Llori Correa Llori” was the message that flooded social media after Guadalupe Llori – whose last name resembles “llora” or "cry" – was elected president of the National Assembly. Llori, a member of the Pachakutik party, was persecuted and incarcerated by Correa during his presidency. Thus, she r...

Ukrainian Cabinet Ministers being replaced
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 May 2021

On May 17 the Ukrainian Parliament was told that the Health Minister, the Economy Minister and the Infrastructure Minister are resigning. They can only leave their posts with the approval of Parliament. It is highly likely that this shall be forthcoming.The resignations come partly because of pub...

Politics: Causes and political implications of the Metro Line 12 collapse
MEXICO · Report · 17 May 2021

The recent collapse of part of the elevated section of Line 12 of the Mexico City Metro that left 26 dead and 80 injured, was a major development in the city, and its consequences could be far reaching. It served to highlight problems plaguing not only the city’s newest line (L12), but the entire...

Economics: Public finance outlook remains bleak
MEXICO · Report · 17 May 2021

Despite an optimistic perspective from the Ministry on Finance on the evolution of the first quarter public finances, the picture is not quite so rosy. What emerges from our reading of the official data is a weakening of public finance in 2021, a situation that could extend through the rest of th...

Demonstration of support for Bolsonaro and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 May 2021

The voting agenda in the Lower House includes, among other items, the provisional measure on the privatization of Eletrobras. The Constitution and Justice Committee may also vote on the report on Administrative Reform. The president of the Lower House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), will release a timetabl...

October 19, the sequel
CHILE · Report · 17 May 2021 · 3 responses

Almost nineteen months after Chile’s main political forces agreed that the path towards a new constitution was a way out of the violence and protest that gripped the country, after a pandemic, and a delayed referendum and yet another delay, Chileans finally got down to the task of electing the me...

Russia’s macro: Hiking the key rate to brake consumption growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 17 May 2021

As Russia’s GDP growth is expected to remain moderate in 2021, the question now is what will happen next with interest rates, as the CBR raised the key rate by 25 bps at the end of March and by 50 bps a month later and hinted it will keep raising it further. What the regulator will do on June 11 ...

The New Projection for GDP Growth and Other Perspectives for 2021
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 May 2021

We have altered our projection for growth in 2021 to 4%. Although significantly higher than the previous projection (of 3.2%), the result is due only to the behavior of the IBC-Br, real retail sales and industrial production, which instead of the expected decline, indicated slight GDP growth in t...

Consumption is still weak and bond markets still confused
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 May 2021

Special points to highlight in this issue: * While there is no question that China has an ugly demographic evolution ahead of it, much of the response by analysts and the press to last Tuesday’s census release has been overly apocalyptic. What matters far more than the simple demographic chan...

Turkey Covid Watch - May 17, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 17 May 2021

Cases continued to decline this week and are now at less than one quarter of their peak 4 weeks ago. Symptomatic covid cases also declined sharply. A 17-day lockdown ended at 5 a.m. today (May 17), though overnight and weekend curfew and other restrictions remain in place, along with notable unce...

Congress to discuss presidential vetoes, and additional important testimony in the Covid CPI this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 May 2021

​This week, the leaders of Congress are expected to meet to discuss presidential vetoes and the bill that deals with the reorganization of funds in the Federal Budget. If an agreement is reached, a session of Congress should be scheduled on Thursday to vote on these matters. In relation to the CO...

The South African business environment and post-Covid economic performance
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 May 2021

​The overall business environment in South Africa has been challenging, especially since the great recession, with factors such as policy uncertainty and electricity supply shortages resulting in low business confidence. Against this backdrop, the performance of the country’s private enterprises ...

MNB vice governor essentially announced the start of a tightening cycle this morning
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 May 2021

MNB vice governor Virág spoke this morning. Because of intensifying inflation risks, stemming mainly from the economic impact of post-Covid reopening, 'it is necessary to get prepared for increasing the base rate', he said according to Portfolio.hu. The MNB may raise the base rate, as a precautio...

April’s CPI surprises on the downside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 May 2021

Headline inflation in April increased by 0.3% m/m (0.8% y/y, up from 0.2% last month). This was below market expectations which were in the 0.4%-0.5% range (m/m). Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy items and fresh produce) accelerated slightly to 0.45% y/y from 0.21% last month. The major i...

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