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Mandetta’s situation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Apr 2020

Since this morning, rumors that President Jair Bolsonaro will fire the Minister of Health, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, have increased in intensity. To add to this, the Secretary of Health in the Ministry, Wanderson de Oliveira, considered the formulator of the strategy against the coronavirus, resign...

​Russia: Pandemic update
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Apr 2020 · 2 responses

Russia’s inflation w-o-w showed no signs of an acceleration in the past seven-day period ending on April 13, and reached 0.2% w-o-w (versus 0.3% a week earlier). It is likely that in April inflation may be around 1% and similar level of inflation can be expected in May. If so, then in May the y-o...

​Health Minister promises quick end to corona battle
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Apr 2020

In his Tuesday evening briefing, Health Minister Mr. Fahrettin Koca took pride in Turkey’s super-efficient health system which keeps the mortality and intubation ratios from COVID-19 low and has a nation-wide contact tracing network which leaves no stone unturned. “Therefore”, he said “in one to ...

Economic team proposes aid to states and municipalities
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Apr 2020

The economic team is proposing an alternative to the bill that provides relief to states and municipalities approved by the Lower House on the evening of Monday, April 13. The text will now be analyzed by the Senate. According to the Lower House text, the federal government will compensate for lo...

The South African Reserve Bank cuts interest rates by another 100 basis points in less than one month
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 14 Apr 2020

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has once again cut the repo rate by 100 basis points from 5.25% to 4.25% today and effective from tomorrow, meaning the prime lending rate will decline from 8.75% to 7.75%. This follows closely the 100-bps cut during the MPC’...

COVID-19 hitting hard – but Piñera’s ratings rise
CHILE · Forecast · 14 Apr 2020

COVID-19 is taking a heavy toll on the Chilean economy. Though we still lack hard data, it seems clear that this will be the worst economic event since the financial crisis of 1982. We hope the crisis will be short-lived, and that we’ll see recovery in H2. But at this point, no one can be sure. ...

​Uncharted territory
ARGENTINA · Report · 14 Apr 2020

As in the rest of the world, the outbreak of the new coronavirus has obliged Argentina’s government to navigate through uncharted territory. The crisis fundamentally changed the government’s priorities, forcing a focus on how to tackle the unavoidable health and economic costs of the pandemic. Co...

Inflation in March comes in slightly on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Apr 2020

Inflation in March reached 0.4% m/m and zero 0.0% y/y (from 0.1% in February). Market expectations (and ours as well) were at 0.3% m/m. The upward surprise came from the housing rental item, which actually accelerated slightly to 2.3% y/y (from 2.2%, we had expected a moderation to 1.7%). This th...

China virus check – week ending April 11
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Apr 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Rising coal use in the power industry and iron ore blast furnace operating rates. 2) A slight decline in the growth rate for traffic congestion. 3) Metro rail traffic is rising but one city – Guangzhou – is outpacing others we tra...

Russian coronavirus financial support sluggish
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Apr 2020

Russian banks are rejecting many appeals for financial support from businesses. Government programs allow assistance to such businesses. On April 10 the Governor of the Russian Central Bank (CBR) said that issuance of loans under these scheme was slow. She asked banks to hurry up. 900 companies h...

Bolsonaro and Mandetta
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Apr 2020

The relationship between President Jair Bolsonaro and Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta continues to present ups and downs. Even after the last week’s “truce” and Bolsonaro’s more moderate national pronouncement on radio and TV, the president this weekend returned to visit local businesses i...

The new election date is July 5
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 13 Apr 2020

Today, the Central Electoral Board announced the decision to postpone the national elections that were scheduled to take place on Sunday, May 17. The new date is Sunday, July 5 and, if necessary, the second round will be held three weeks later, on July 26. The Constitution orders the new presiden...

Russia’s budget: Stress-testing budget sustainability
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Apr 2020

The reported daily number of contaminated in Russia has continued to grow in the past ten days at a rate of around 15%, posting no clear acceleration. It is becoming increasingly likely that the total number of contaminated may start peaking in a month or so as the spread of the disease has inten...

Covid-19: The main legislative measures total R$ 638 billion
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Apr 2020

The Lower House is trying to reach a deal to vote on emergency aid for states and municipalities and on the provisional measure that deals with labor ("Green and Yellow Contract"). The Senate analyzes the "war budget". By Wednesday, April 15, the government will send the LDO to Congress. The STF ...

Belarus nuclear power station to open
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Apr 2020

On April 12 Belarus announced that a nuclear power station will open in July 2020. The Energy Minister said it will only start generating electricity in September or October. The power station is close to the border with Lithuania. Lithuania strenuously objects to the power station saying it is a...

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