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Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Jun 2023

Jun 2 Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure: Kazakhstan plans to start developing new copper deposits in 2027 and to double copper production by 2030 President: Mr. Tokayev urged the EU to support the idea of long-term supplies of Kazakh oil via CPC to Europe President: Mr. Tokayev said Kazakhs...

Russian missiles strike Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jun 2023

On June 14 the missiles did little damage. US-supplied air defense systems fended off most Russian missiles. Russia fired Kalibr missiles from a warship. Ukraine claims to have shot them down. Ukraine says 3 people in Odesa were killed by the missile that got through. The United Nations noted tha...

El Salvador Brief: New actions to favor re-election
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 15 Jun 2023

by Fernando Naranjo and Felix Delgado President Nayib Bukele proposed a reduction in the number of municipalities in El Salvador. The bill was approved on Wednesday, June 14th. Starting March 2024, the country will have 44 local governments compared to 262 nowadays. The name of the municipalities...

More clarity about the MNB's balance sheet and its impact on the government budget
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Jun 2023

Even though the MNB reports what is called its statistical balance sheet monthly, it is essentially impossible to tell from that by how much the government will have to recapitalise the Bank and when, in view of the latter's losses suffered because of its current sterilisation policy. The reason ...

May’s CPI surprises sharply downwards
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jun 2023

Core inflation moderates sharply Inflation in May was up 0.2% m/m, below the consensus range of 0.5%-0.6% (we had expected 0.5%). Inflation in the past 12 months declined to 4.6% from 5.0% last month. May’s CPI was influenced by stability in food prices (expectations were for a 0.5% increase or m...

Uzbekistan: Central bank holds policy rate steady, but sends a dovish signal
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 15 Jun 2023

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) kept the policy rate unchanged on Jun 15th, but signaled a cut is likely at the next policy meeting. The CBU kept the policy rate unchanged at 14.0 percent, but modified its message to signal a good probability that it may ease monetary policy at its next poli...

S&P reported an improvement in Brazil’s rating, Lira highlighted two votes that are important in the House this semester, and Lula will hold a ministerial meeting
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jun 2023

The government celebrated the news that Standard & Poor's reported an improvement in Brazil's BB- rating, from stable to positive. When commenting on the report published by S&P, Haddad recognized the work of the president of the House, Arthur Lira, the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco, and the Supreme Fe...

Economic performance in May: mixed results
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Jun 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for an aggregate measure of the country’s economic activity) grew by 4.5% in 5M23 y-o-y, which looks decent. However, in 4M23 and 1Q23, y-o-y growth rates were higher – 5.5% and 5.1%. Amid significant base e...

May inflation: in line with our forecast
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Jun 2023

As expected, inflation in May intensified as a result of wage increases, especially the 2,122 percent rise in the food bonus (cesta ticket). Public outlays rose by 22 percent for the steepest monthly jump seen so far this year. It pushed up the exchange rate. The central bank sold $210 million, f...

The CAE approved the payroll tax exemption extension yesterday, the State Finance Secretaries will discuss Tax Reform tomorrow, and the fiscal framework should be put to a vote in the Senate on June 21
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jun 2023

As expected, the Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) approved a bill yesterday that extends the payroll tax exemption for 17 sectors of the economy for four years. The benefit ends in December. This was a defeat for the government. State Finance Secretaries scheduled a virtual meeting for Thursday t...

Ukrainian offensive makes ground but Russia claims to capture US-made vehicles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jun 2023

On June 13 Ukraine said it was moving forward in Zaporizhzhia. There is evidence that Ukraine has made headway but it is modest. There is no sign of a breakthrough against very well-entrenched Russians. On June 13 Russia showed footage of its troops on Bradley Armored Fighting Vehicles and German...

Budgetary performance seemingly improved in May
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Jun 2023

Kazakhstan’s Deputy PM and Finance Minister, Mr. Erulan Zhamaubaev, reported at a government meeting today that the country’s state budget (i.e., the republican and local budgets combined) was in decent shape as in 5M23 it accumulated “over KZT8.0 trln of revenues” which appeared about 3% over th...

The STF decided that PIS/Cofins taxes will be levied on all business activities, the fiscal framework is expected to be approved in the Senate without changes, and the CAE may vote on the bill that extends the payroll tax exemption
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jun 2023

Yesterday, the government had an important victory in the Supreme Federal Court (STF). The STF decided that the PIS/Cofins taxes should be levied on all business activity because social security is financed by billing and companies' revenue. The Minister of the Institutional Relations Secretariat...

Political and economic scenarios for 2023-2026
PERU · Forecast · 13 Jun 2023

This report focuses on our 2023‒2026 forecasts. In the first section, we discuss possible political scenarios. Our base case is that President Dina Boluarte remains in office until July 2026. However, we suggest that Boluarte faces two significant threats: accusations of human rights violations a...

Deleveraging in China and the Japan trap
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Jun 2023

China’s economy continued to slow in April and May, with only auto sales showing strength due to low base effects in 2022. The government remains steadfast on property deleveraging although there are new rumors of further stimulus, but no firm announcement. The key issue for China’s economy is ho...

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