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Russian immigration boosts economies of other former USSR countries
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Nov 2022

Since February 2022 Russians have emigrated in increasing numbers. They have often moved to poorer former USSR countries particularly: Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. In September 2022 there was a spike of emigration due to the mobilization. Housing in major c...

Greater sanity at the end of a startup tech boom
INDIA · Report · 14 Nov 2022

India went through a dramatic period with the success of technology startups backed by venture capital. At its peak this phenomenon induced a significant impact upon the labor market and was starting to reshape the behavior of established financial and non-financial firms. The bloom is off this r...

Slowdown in growth and inflation, with climate vulnerability a worry
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 14 Nov 2022

The interannual growth of economic activity in September was 4.8%, lower than in August. Despite this slowdown, January-September 2022 accumulated interannual growth was 5.4%, above potential growth. Inflation has managed to maintain a downward trend since May, and y/y CPI growth was 8.2% in Oct...

The details of the Transition PEC should be outlined on Wednesday, Lula travels to Egypt today for COP27, and tomorrow is a national holiday – Proclamation of the Republic
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2022

According to Senator Marcelo Castro (MDB-PI), who is the budget's rapporteur and the person who will also report on the PEC in the Senate, the terms of the proposal will be negotiated with party leaders on Wednesday, November 16. He also said that the idea would be to permanently remove the Auxíl...

Government bond issuance is expected to double in 2023
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Nov 2022

* We expect government bond issuance in 2023 to increase significantly. * Recent economic indicators point to weak export numbers and slowing growth ahead. * We expect October’s CPI to reach 0.4% m/m on higher clothing, food and rental prices. * Q322 GDP will reflect slow growth of 1...

De-risking and Chinese equities
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Nov 2022

There is pressure, primarily from the U.S. pension and retirement funds, to “de-risk” by reducing the weight of Chinese equities in overall portfolios. The official China data for September 2022 show net portfolio outflows. Future months are likely to show negative growth as de-risking sentiment ...

First impressions from the Beyoglu terror attack
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Nov 2022

On Sunday 4 pm, a bomb exploded in the busy entertainment venue,  Beyoglu, killing six and injuring 81. The death toll could increase further. The female suspect was apprehended immediately, after which the police conducted broad raids netting about 80 alleged accomplices. The suspect claims she ...

Good news on the budget, bad news on politics
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Nov 2022

For short, the good news is that the central government reached a pretty much non-seasonal cash surplus of HUF101bn in October, pulling the ten-month cumulative deficit for this year down to HUF2590bn or an annualised 5.1% of GDP, down from 5.9% of GDP in January-September. The annual cash defici...

Trials and tribulations
TURKEY · Report · 13 Nov 2022

In the most politically charged case of recent years, a judge postponed the trial of CHP Istanbul Mayor Mr. Ekrem Imamoglu to mid-December. He is almost certain to be convicted and banned from holding elected office, but the timing depends on Erdogan. The Imamoglu trial marks yet another step tow...

US holds talks for Armenia and Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2022

On November 8 the two Caucasus nations met in Washington to try to resolve their border dispute. In the past week there has been shooting across the ceasefire line. The US Secretary of State met with representatives of both countries. Privately US officials recognize that a permanent peace is unl...

Ukrainian troops re-enter Kherson
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Nov 2022

On November 11 Russia announced that it had completed its withdrawal to the east of the River Dnipro. Kherson was the only Ukrainian regional capital that Russia managed to seize. Russia held it for almost 9 months. Ukraine's regaining it is significant. Russia blew up the Antonivsky Bridge in th...

The federal budget still in surplus in 10M22
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Nov 2022

The Ministry of Finance preliminary reports that the federal budget was in surplus in 10M22 as revenues exceeded R22.1 trln while expenditures were at R22.0 trln. As the ministry stopped publishing detailed fiscal accounts, including adjustments it makes regularly to initial estimates of the budg...

Webinar replay - Colombia: Easier said than done
COLOMBIA · Report · 11 Nov 2022

Get insight into Colombia's macro economic and political outlook. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar, "Colombia: Easier said than done", featuring Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar discussing Colombia's politics and governance, monetary policy, and how the country ...

Ukrainian forces entered Kherson
UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Nov 2022

We have many photos evidencing that Ukrainian forces entered Kherson. Below is the photo of the central square of Kherson with the Ukrainian flag and people gathering with Ukrainian national symbolic. It looks like the main Russian forces indeed have left the west bank of Dnipro river.

GULF WEEKLY: Omani income tax law debated, Empower IPO upsized, Qatar loans $1bn to Egypt
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Nov 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf leaders attended the COP27 summit in Egypt, and Arab funds pledged $24bn in climate funding. * Saudi Arabia has established a hub to capture up to 9m tonnes of CO2 a year. * The Arabian Drilling IPO traded well, a Ma...

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